Kentucky Derby and Beyond (Part Deuce)

[Sharkey]

Del Mar starts Friday.

And the Haskell is ran on Saturday with some familiar names entered like Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and Mandaloun.

Should be a good race.

 

[Black Paladin]

Best Bet

Saratoga (July 15, 2021)

RACE 3

#6 Point Me By
Jockey: Gaffalione
Trainer: Kenneally

6-1 morning line odds. Will bet down as far as 3-1.
Speed of the race and class of the race.

 

[Black Paladin]

Not a boom. A fizzle.

 

[Black Paladin]

Try to beat the favorite again.

Saratoga
RACE 9
#5 Portilla (6-1)

 

[mkess101]

Try to beat the favorite again.

Saratoga
RACE 9
#5 Portilla (6-1)

Tailed blindly for a few bucks because...why not?

 

[Black Paladin]

Tailed blindly for a few bucks because...why not?

That's my dog.

You will be high from that NBA title for a few weeks.

 

[mkess101]

That's my dog.

You will be high from that NBA title for a few weeks.

Oh yeah. Did you see the video of Giannis at Chick-fil-A yesterday? Man we are lucky to have found that guy. He is just awesome on so many levels.

 

[Sharkey]

Good luck to you guys with your plays here.

 

[Black Paladin]

Good luck to you guys with your plays here.

Thanks, Mr. Sharkey.

Luck couldn't even save that play. Our horse is still running. :-/

You can help, though:

Several times over the last year, I have bet class drops. Horses are the class of the race, and they don't just lose, but a few times they have been dead last like today.

WTF is up with that?

 

[Black Paladin]

Try to beat the favorite again.

Saratoga
RACE 9
#5 Portilla (6-1)

"Stupid-a facking game."--Furio Giunta

 

[mkess101]

"Stupid-a facking game."--Furio Giunta

There's always another race/game/fight.

Head up brother.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks, Mr. Sharkey.

Luck couldn't even save that play. Our horse is still running. :-/

You can help, though:

Several times over the last year, I have bet class drops. Horses are the class of the race, and they don't just lose, but a few times they have been dead last like today.

WTF is up with that?

It's frustrating when that happens isn't it?

But I really don't know what to tell you, bud. If identifying class drops is something that's worked for you in the past then I wouldn't worry too much about some isolated results. There's so much random in this game and with so many unknowns too, so results like that are going to happen no matter who you are or how solid your handicapping is. Shit just happens and we've all been on the bad side of it often enough. We've all been on the good side of it too, although maybe we don't notice those as much.

I don't know, BP. Keep with it if it's worked for you well enough, though. But if class drops/jumps is something that has always been a struggle then maybe give it less importance for the time being? Class drops/jumps are already tricky enough by themselves just because of the added element of trying to judge trainer intent and how each move up or down can be very different depending on trainer and/or situation.

 

[Black Paladin]

Class drops/jumps are already tricky enough by themselves just because of the added element of trying to judge trainer intent and how each move up or down can be very different depending on trainer and/or situation.

Thanks for the reminder. That's it. My eyes get very big when I see these class drops, and I am NOT considering trainer intent, really.

These plays can be fool's gold.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the reminder. That's it. My eyes get very big when I see these class drops, and I am NOT considering trainer intent, really.

These plays can be fool's gold.

Unfortunately that happens with a lot of handicappers when they see droppers and as such, the prices on those types tend to get depressed quite a bit even when they do end up running well. Makes it tough on value since droppers are so easy to spot for most and often get mentioned as a class dropper on the broadcasts as well.

I try to pay as little attention to class as possible nowadays, but when I used to give it more attention, one of my favourite angles was when a horse is being double jumped in class (into a non-stakes race) as they were almost always heading into situations like that in good form (often coming off a win) and coming into the race off some of their better races. It always signaled a very confident move to me by the trainer and quite often those types were somewhat ignored in the betting by a public that typically gives more importance to class than to form.

 

[Black Paladin]

Arlington Park, August 19, 2021

Corrupt-ass Chicago.

RACE 2
#3 Good Mongolia (3-1) speed of the race going AGAINST a class dropper

 

[Black Paladin]

Arlington Park, August 19, 2021

Corrupt-ass Chicago.

RACE 2
#3 Good Mongolia (3-1) speed of the race going AGAINST a class dropper

Third. :-/

But that class dropper finished worse.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

The Queen's Plate is running in a couple of hours and if anyone is interested, I threw some numbers together and came up with some fair odds for the field;

==========

#6 - 4.8/1
#12- 6.5/1
#8 - 7.1/1
#2 - 7.9/1
#3 - 8.3/1
#1 - 9.3/1
-----
#13- 17.6/1
#11- 17.6/1
#10- 18.9/1
#5 - 32.5/1
#7 - 35.0/1
#9 - 45.7/1
#4 - 54.2/1

==========

A bit skinny when it comes to finding any real value, but since it's the biggest race up here in Canada I'm not going to be too strict on the odds. Basically playing for fun and some added interest. Thinking about a small #6 over #1, #2, #3, #8, #12 super, and then maybe some #6 over the better odds of the other five in exact and tris and try to beat one or two of the shorter priced types. But we'll see what the board says.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 10 at Woodbine. 5:42 EST post time.

I probably should have mentioned that.

 

[Sharkey]

The #12 Tidal Wave is 12/1 on the morning line, so he could be the value in the race. Just not sure that holds as I've seen him getting picked by a few handicappers out there.