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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Added the morning lines to this, which also makes it much easier to find a cutoff point for me in regards to playable options.
     
  2. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    15/1 on the morning line. Opens up at even money.

    Gee thanks Gulfstream.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    My 1st horse today scratched out of an off the turf race. Now my 2nd horse is getting way overbet. I knew I should have taken that nap.
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    4/1 now as they're about to enter the gates. Still a pass for me, though, just because I wanted way more and with this being Gulfstream.
     
  5. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I guess I could've tried for the trifecta in that Gulfstream race since my top ranked horse won, and then the two horses I had tied for 2nd finished within a neck of each other in 2nd and 3rd.
     
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    "A loser thinks there are rules for both winning and losing."

    "Only by going against the tide of mainstream horseplayer rules and prejudices, can we make a profit."

    "Dare to be different and win."

    - Dr Howard Sartin
     
  7. ImNotSurpisedDonks! Banned Banned

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    Suck! Instagrand got pulled! I was so excited to see him go head to head with Roadster,

    What are your thoughts on this? Think they are sending Hollendorfer's other colt to see how well they can game plan against Baffert? Just so bizarre that they wait until last minute and pull him while he is healthy.
     
  8. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    My thoughts, Donk, are that the race between those two will be much more interesting on the big stage of the Breeders Cup with other top 2 year-olds. I really didn't have much interest in betting into a race with a 4/5 shot against a 6/5 shot anyways.
     
  9. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    @t6p

    What are you thinking for tomorrow's Woodward, bud?
     
  10. ImNotSurpisedDonks! Banned Banned

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    Any updated odds on Roadster? I imagine he will be like 1/3 atp. Should be an easy G1 for his portfolio.
     
  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I don't think they've drawn the field yet have they? I'd guess he'll somewhere around 1/5 now come post time with Instagrand out.

    By the way, sorry for that last response. I think it might have came across a little colder than I meant it to. Haha. The fan in me would like to see them face each other, of course. But as a fan I'm okay with them waiting til another race is under each of them as far as their development goes. I think the matchup does deserve the bigger stage as well. The handicapper in me also prefers they wait til the Breeders Cup.
     
  12. t6p Brown Belt

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    I’ve been so busy at work I’ve only had a chance to take a quick look at the PPs. I’m in Saratoga now but I should have some time to take a better look in the morning. I’ll let you what I come up with Shark.
     
  13. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Dare to be different and win, T, because there just might be a 20/1 shot in this race that has your name on it.
     
  14. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Trying something a little different today with the Woodward by implementing the pace figures each horse has ran in recent races along with the numbers I compiled a few days ago to try to determine the best win contenders (WF) and those with the best chance to hit the board (BF);

    ==========

    #4 Tapwrit: WF = 357.5, BF = 348.4
    #10 Seeking the Soul: WF = 355.2, BF = 358.5
    #14 Rally Cry: WF = 347.0, BF = 337.2
    #1 Yoshida: WF = 343.8, BF = 344.9
    #13 Zanotti: WF = 336.4, BF = 339.3
    #9 Gunnevera: WF = 331.9, BF = 339.9
    #11 Leofric: WF = 330.6, BF = 339.9
    #8 Discreet Lover: WF = 327.8, BF = 333.2
    #12 Sunny Ridge: WF = 324.2, BF = 328.9
    #5 Hence: WF = 313.6, BF = 320.5
    #6 Term of Art: WF = 308.3, BF = 309.0
    #2 Imperative: WF = 307.0, BF = 299.3
    #3 Patch: WF = 299.0, BF = 304.4
    #7 Kurilov: WF = 293.4, BF = 293.4

    When doing these Rally Cry looks like the value to me on the win side of things if anywhere close to his 20/1 morning line. Concern there with his last race for sure, but that came off a long layoff and he probably needed the race. Mike Smith gets the mount on him today, so that fact, as well as his recent workouts, gives me some confidence that he's a live horse today at anything close to his morning line odds.

    Seeking the Soul looks like a horse that should be there at the end and one I can key off of in 1st, 2nd and maybe 3rd if I do play trifectas. Maybe something like this; #10 over #4, #1, and then #4, #14 over #10. Not sure where the cutoff point is for 3rd, though, if I wanted to limit combinations, so I'm leaning towards passing on the tris.

    ==========
     
  15. t6p Brown Belt

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    @Sharkey

    I’m thinking I might keep it simple in the Woodward (depending on odds closer to race time) and go with some combination of 1/10/14. Maybe even just box them up in exactas and trifectas.

    I know it’s a small sample size but Tapwrit hasn’t been great at Saratoga or at this distance. Would you agree that he’s likely to be a popular betting choice as well?

    I might also do a win bet on Seeking the Soul if he ends up close to the morning line.
     
  16. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Tapwrit will take some money for sure, T. I don't know how much because not a lot of people I've come across on the interwebs are speaking of him for this race. But he's going to take some money from people just based on the Pletcher/Velasquez combination and the fact that he was a Belmont winner. The morning line odds listed for him seem like a pretty fair prediction to me, but who knows really.

    I wouldn't hold Tapwrit's last race here at this distance against him too much, T. You know, you were there. That's the day it pissed down heavy just before the race, which saw a long delay. Horses like Tapwrit, who are big, long and low striding types, are at a disadvantage in the slop usually just because their leg extensions make them more prone to slipping and things like that. It's usually the more athletic short striding horses or horses who are more upright (like turf runners) that are more effective under those sloppy conditions just because they tend to be lighter on their feet. There were also a couple of occasions in the Whitney (around the 1st turn then near the end of the backstretch) when Tapwrit was visibly upset about having the muck kicked in his face by Diversify, and backed away from it both times.

    I'm giving him a pass for that last race and will be using him somewhat, although there's most definitely a case against him as well and I like that you're seeing things that make you hesitant to play him. Independent thinking, T. I love it. We have to make certain decisions for or against in any race, but especially in a 14 horse field because we obviously can't play them all.

    I like your three horse plenty as well. In fact those are the three I'm counting on for myself because I think I found a way I can play some trifectas without having an overabundance of coverage. I'm thinking I'll win bet Rally Cry because of the value I think he represents, and then use the other two horses as keys in exotics. Seeking the Soul should run a good race and I would say he is the most likely horse in the field to at least finish top 3. Yoshida is also a very strong contender to at least hit the board, and with the positive pace patterns to his credit (which aren't factored into any numbers I did), I'm expecting him to run a strong race as well. I'm thinking I'll be keying both of those horses to finish top 3 in the trifecta, and then mix in a few other horses to round out the other spot that's open. I should be able to limit it to less than 20 combinations that way, and with the potential being there to hit a big trifecta if Rally Cry does run a huge race today. What do you think?
     
  17. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This is a rough draft, but thinking something like this @t6p for the tris;

    10 / 1 / 4, 14, 13, 9, 11
    10 / 4, 14, 13, 9, 11 / 1
    1 / 10 / 4, 14, 13, 9, 11
    1 / 4, 14, 13, 9, 11 / 10
    4, 14 / 10 / 1
    4, 14 / 1 / 10
     
  18. t6p Brown Belt

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    What a memory on you Shark. Somehow I completely blanked about the downpour before the Whitney. Thanks for all the input, great stuff as always.

    I think I’m going to end up seeing how my day goes and making a last minute decision on the Woodward. If I can manage to win some money on the earlier races I’ll probably be willing to play more combinations.

    My cell service sucks at the track for some reason but I’ll try to check in here before the race. Thanks again bud.
     
  19. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    So, uh, do you have any tips for the earlier races on the card, T? Haha. Just kidding. Best of luck to you today, my friend. I hope you crush.

    I already browsed the Saratoga PP's (and every other track) last night looking for some pace pattern horses at nice prices, and I didn't find any there. I did find a couple of options at other tracks later on in the day, which is more than I can say for the last couple of days. I haven't made a bet since Tuesday I think. Being selective like this kinda sucks.
     
  20. t6p Brown Belt

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    Haha, thanks Shark. Honestly I haven’t even looked at any of the other races yet. I feel like I do my best work at the track with a couple beers and edibles in my system. Hopefully that’ll continue today.

    Being selective takes discipline, but I’ve found that it does pay off in the end. At least when it’s comes to my MMA betting. Good luck if you make any plays today besides the Woodward.
     

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