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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    It certainly does take discipline, T. I've seen the results of that firsthand last winter when I stuck to my E2 angle and then again this spring with outside speed in sprints. I had positive results both times by sticking to some basic principles, especially this spring. It's when I started trying to get greedy by expanding my plays that I started seeing the negative results. When you're being selective and disciplined with ideas that have worked for you you aren't really gambling, but investing instead. You're not relying on luck on those occasions, but a skill you've developed that helped you identify and forecast. When you get away from what you're best at then then you're relying on some luck to produce positive results and that's when it becomes more akin to gambling. Gambling on a result happening is a losing proposition for 95+% of the people out there over an extended period of time because you're relying more on chance than anything and you're are always going to be a big disadvantage in the long run. But when you make smart decisions based on the probability of result happening that is anything but gambling. That's when it becomes a game of skill, not chance. The ponies, MMA, or any other sport doesn't have to be about "gambling" if you're good at identifying probabilities and have your own unique & innovated ways of looking at things. The conventional handicapping (on every sport) that everybody else does doesn't work. If everybody caps the same way then all people are doing is inflating the perceived probability of something happening as a group, and thus deflating the potential payouts even when their bets do hit. That's guaranteed to lose money for all but a select few in the long run. You want to cash bets on a 60% realistic probability when the market says it's only 40%, not the other way around. That's one reason why I trimmed my formula last week of a lot of extra junk. For 9 out of every 10 races it was telling me that I should like the same horses that the public should like, and that's the exact opposite of what I designed it to tell me. I wanted it looking outside the box, not inside, and so it was time to take it back down to the basics of form, class, and speed, and go from there.
     
  2. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Hopefully @t6p was helped and not hurt by all the shenanigans at the end of that 8th race.
     
  3. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Woodward;

    #14 Rally Cry to win for $10

    #10 over #1, #4, and then #4, #14 over #10 in some $4 exactas

    #10 over #1 over #4, #9, #11, #13, #14 in $1 trifectas
    #10 over #4, #9, #11, #13, #14 over #1 in $1 trifectas
    #4, #14 over #10 over #1 in $1 trifectas
    #4, #14 over #1 over #10 in $1 trifectas

    $50 risk in total.

    Rally Cry over Seeking the Soul over Yoshida would be the ideal result for me.
     
  4. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Couple of pace pattern horses after the Woodward;

    Race 7 at Louisiana Downs - #5 Zensational Vision 8/1 (19.6% = 9/2 fair odds)(HLS, OS)

    Race 7 at Charles Town - #9 Owen's Mo 5/1 (22.9% = 7/2 fair odds)(LET, OS)
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

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    Unfortunately I had the 10-4 exacta there bud. I did get the exacta and trifecta on race 7 so having a decent day so far. Ready to cash something big on the Woodward!
     
  6. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    You should have cashed that exacta then, T. In my opinion at least. The #8 caused 90% of the chaos coming to the line there I thought and should have been placed behind both of the others. The infraction from the #4 was minor, and the #10 was obviously innocent.

    Great job cashing the race before, though.
     
  7. t6p Brown Belt

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    I’m going with a 1/10 exacta box and a 1/10/14 trifecta box. Also taking 10 to win.

    Good luck @Sharkey!
     
  8. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Get 'er done, T.

    If you win there's a good chance I win. And vice versa.
     
  9. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Great betting race this is if one was to land on the right horses.
     
  10. t6p Brown Belt

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    @Sharkey please tell me I’m reading your plays wrong and you won something.
     
  11. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Nah, nothing for me, T.

    See what happens when I veer off the path of looking for positive pace patterns and overthink things? The only horse in the race with those positive patterns goes out there and clearly wins the thing. At a very fair price as well. I deserved to lose on that one.
     
  12. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    But no, let's try to get cute with my plays why don't I.

     
  13. t6p Brown Belt

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    Damn it. That’s rough bud. I know you were liking Yoshida from the start.
     
  14. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Ah, it's no big deal, T. The good thing about it was that I forgot about the race I was planning to bet at Louisiana Downs right after the Woodward, and that horse didn't hit the board by the looks of it. So there's a bright side to the story. Haha.
     
  15. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    I'm going to forget about this horse at Charles Town as well. This time on purpose, though, just because he's likely to get bet down to unplayable odds now that the favourite scratched (a vulnerable favourite at that, who I only had ranked 6th of 10).
     
  16. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Could only find one pace pattern option for today, but it looks like a nice race to bet;

    ==========

    Race 6 at Arlington (1:40);

    1- 225.3
    2- 228.5
    3- 200.4 (morning line favourite and ranks a clear last)
    4- 231.8
    5- 237.0
    6- 236.6
    7- 240.5
    8- 263.9 Pure Blarney 12/1 (27.9% = 3/1 fair odds)(LET, OS)

    I'm thinking;

    #8 to win/place for $8/$12

    #7, #8 over #4, #7, #8 over #4, #7, #8 in exactas ($4) and trifectas ($1)

    Both the #5 and #6 rank higher than the #4 on the numbers, and look like the better win contenders if one of them was to get loose or sit a nice outside stalking position up front. But I have the #8 sitting right outside the #5 when I run the pace numbers with the #6 chasing behind those, and with the #8 having shown the better ability to sustain a pace (plus the addition of the positive pace pattern for today), I'm playing both the #5 and #6 to fade back late and open the race up somewhat for an off the pace type like the #4 and #7 (who profile as stronger board factors). That's the way I have it playing out on paper anyways. The #8 at 12/1 over the #7 at 10/1 would be outstanding if their morning line odds hold up.

    ==========
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  17. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    That good feeling you get after you cap a race only happens once every couple/few months.
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Haven't tailed anything in awhile but was gonna maybe look to tail this one...and looks like your #8 horse scratched? Ah well, maybe next time Shark!
     
  19. Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    No way. Ah, you're killing me with that news, Mike. Please tell me you're kidding.
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Wish I was Shark...

    upload_2018-9-2_10-22-26.png
     

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