Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.
My book is showing the scratch too. Sorry bud.
Well there you go. Cheers man.
Lord Gamblor hates me, T. He must. I go browse threw the PPs of 50+ races, find 3 horse that may be an option. I do the numbers for them and find that 2 of them aren`t really worth it afterall. But that 1 that`s left, yeah, he looks good based on what you`re looking for. He looks the like the best horse in the race actually and is also the longest odds on the morning line. The 2nd best horse on the numbers is the 2nd biggest longshot on the morning line. The favourite is the worst. And a mother fucking scratch throws it all out the window. Yeah, Lord Gamblor hates me. Haha. I give up.
That’s a rough break for sure Shark. You can’t let Lord Gamblor win though!
It`s hard to beat someone if they keep running away from you, T. That`s what Lord Gamblor did today. He knew that I was about to crush everything in that race and he took the cowards way out. Today won`t be the day to catch up to him since I don`t have anything else prepared. But tomorrow or the next day, yeah, I`ll get him to pay up.
Holy crap, is every track in North America running races tomorrow? I almost forgot it was a holiday.
Anyways, I'm going to try to find some good pace pattern horses for tomorrow regardless of odds just so the process isn't so damn tedious and the end result so limiting. If there's no value to be found in straight betting them then I'll try to create some value with them in exactas instead.
Well, this is more like it. Found 8 potential options for tomorrow, and at least 6, maybe 7 of them I would have found even without loosening my selectiveness as only one is below 4/1 on the morning line I do believe. Woodbine coming through big for me with 5 of them, including 2 in the same race. I haven't run the numbers on the horses yet, though, so there might be a few that get cut after doing that. But I'm going to have something to bet tomorrow at least.
That horse that just won the 9th race at Louisiana Downs on the grass was a LET and E2 horse. I didn't even bother doing the numbers for the race, though, because of rain being in the forecast and with me thinking there was a good chance of the race being taken off the turf. I didn't want it to be a waste of time. It did rain at the track, but the race stayed on on the turf.
I'm going to try the #1 Autumn Warrior in the G3 Super Derby coming up in a few minutes at Louisiana Downs. I have him ranked 4th of 9 on the numbers, but is close enough to be considered a win contender. He also has a very nice pace profile for this race when looking at his pace figures with a very good sustained pace number. Have him ranked 3rd overall on the pace figur4es as far as the win factor goes. He's never raced on a off track before, but he's certainly bred for it. He's also yet to take that jump on his overall speed figures that these inexperienced horses almost always take, which could come today. Currently 6/1.
#1 to win/place, and then a pair of #8 over #1, #9 exactas. Trying to beat Lone Sailor right out of it as the clear favourite for this race when he's only won 1 race in 12 starts so far.
The #1 horse shit the bed. Thanks for nothing. And both Lone Sailor and High North still suck seeing as how they just got their ass kicked by daylight by some cheap allowance horse who was 26/1.
Race 3 at Woodbine (11:00);
7- 279.0 *Colton's Corner 3/1 (29.3% = 5/2 fair odds)(LET, E2)*
Race 4 at Woodbine (11:31);
3- 259.3 *Halo Laelia 5/1 (28.6% = 5/2 fair odds)(E2, HLS)*
12- 227.2 *Sweet Retreat 4/1 (12.8% = 7/1 fair odds)(NPT, E2, HLS)*
Race 5 at Saratoga (11:43);
10- 301.4 *Gosilently 9/2 (36.3% = 9/5 fair odds)(E2, HLS)*
Race 5 at Woodbine (12:06);
1- 261.1 *Sailor's Thought 8/1 (12.5% = 7/1 fair odds)(NPT, E2)*
Race 9 at Parx (1:31);
2- 368.5 *Smiling Causeway 10/1 (17.4% = 5/1 fair odds)(E2, HLS)*
Race 8 at Woodbine (1:45);
9- 247.3 *Rock You 20/1 (24.7% = 7/2 fair odds)(NPT, E2)*
Some early thoughts as to how I may bet, but I may need @t6p's help with this part;
Race 3 at Woodbine - I'll play the #7 to W/P at fair odds or better, and then key him over & under with the #1, #6 in exactas.
Race 4 at Woodbine - I'll play the #3 to W/P at fair odds or better, play the #3 over #12 straight exacta since it worked last week, and then play some #3, #7 over #3, #4, #7, #12 over #3, #4, #7, #12 trifectas.
Race 5 at Saratoga - I'll play the #10 to W/P at fair odds or better, and then key him over the #4, #7, #9 in exactas and trifectas.
Race 5 at Woodbine - Not seeing the exotic plays there without seeing the tote board first, so probably just a W/P on the #1 at fair odds or better.
Race 9 at Parx - I'll play the #2 to W/P at fair odds or better, maybe a straight #8 over #2 exacta, and then some trifectas with #8 over #2 over #1, #3 and #8 over #1, #3 over #2.
Race 8 at Woodbine - The #9 to W/P at whatever they give me since he's 20/1 on the morning line, and then key him over & under with the #5, #6 in exactas.
I'm risking the whole $279 that's left in my account on these races, so these pace pattern horses better run well today. If my account ends up at zero then that's it, I'm done for awhile. Well, maybe. Win or lose, I won't be playing many races on weekdays for the next month or so anyways since my toe has healed up and it's time to get back to work. I'll have to limit it to weekends.
That's such a loser's attitude. Stop it.
I'm a winner, and today I'll be doing what winners do. They win, therefore I'll win. Yes.
Looks good to me Shark. You’re gonna kill it today, I can feel it.
Oh hell yeah, I am, T.
By this time tomorrow I'll be sitting on a beach in Hawaii sipping on one of them fruity drinks. Or more accurately, some extra cash in my pocket as I climb a ladder with plans to buy the guys lunch at McDonalds. But the point is the same. I'm winning my bets today.
The #1 scratched out of the 5th race at Woodbine, so no pace pattern horse in that race. That's okay since it was he horse I had the least amount of confidence in. I may make a smaller play on the #9 horse to W/P that race instead as a non-pace pattern type just because it's my top ranked horse, is 6/1 on the morning line, and I capped the race anyways.
No scratches that affect me in the other races, thoguh, whether it be my straight bets or in the exotics. And I'm pretty sure I'm going to play these as they are listed above since it was my initial thoughts.
I'm going to play the $2 double and $1 pick 3 sequences in races 3 through 5 at Woodbine as well since it'll only cost $30 in total for both;
#1, #6, #7 with #3, #7 with #3, #8, #9
Edit: Costs $30, not $24.
I'm going to be playing each race for between $40 and $50 with it basically being divided equally between straight bets and exotics. If I don't get the odds I want with straight bets I'll up the amount on exotics for that race. The exception being that 5th race at Woodbine with my horse scratching. I'll play the #9 horse in that one a lot smaller (like $10 or $15).
Separate names with a comma.