Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[BluntTrauma21]

Sharkey I don't know if you have these options wherever you bet but a lot of the online books will give out horse vs horse lines on who places better between the two. For instance we aren't very high on Mohaymen going in even though he's only at 10-1, the books might match him up with a horse with a similar line like Gun Runner and we could probably get a steal at -110 or whatever the price just for him to finish better than Mohaymen even if neither of them finish at the top of the bunch.

I'm gonna look to bet a couple of horses we like head to head against Mohaymen if the prices are right. If he does indeed under perform then there's some good money to be made in basically fading him against other horses who are primed to run better. Hoping to get a line or two to fade him on if the books put him against the right horse/horses.

 

[Sharkey]

The first part would be cool. For me really just to (like you said) confirm the horses I like are okay at this distance. I don't think it's an issue for the horses I'm on but to see it backed up by data would be sweet.


The second part for sure if you have time would be awesome. I think based on what you've posted so far (which is awesome) I actually have a decent feel for where you will come out on a lot of the horses. But if you did a horse by horse breakdown the way you listed I (should say "we" since there's others looking) could see if there's anything that might have slipped by.

I've pretty much decided I'm rolling with the 3 I listed but I wouldn't be opposed to possibly adding 1-2 more horses into the mix. That said, in a field this size where is the point of diminishing returns? I don't feel like 4 horses is too many but not sure. I won't add any to my 3 just to add but if there's another horse or two that look really good and seem to have value...? Not sure.

I'll get started on that pedigree data then. May be done tonight, but tomorrow at the latest. It would be best to match that data with the video I posted back on the first page since every pedigree is going to have both speed and stamina influence in it to varying extent and we can never know for sure if a horse will like the 10F distance just on pedigree alone. Watch the videos to see if your horse(s) is finishing well and you can even pay attention to how they look after the race if you can. Running their best race(s) in the prep season as the distances get longer is always a big plus as well.

As far as diminishing returns, I generally don't spread too wide myself. I try to land on one or two horses I like more than the others when playing tris then match them up with two or three more who I think have a chance but don't like quite as much. I almost never go with more than 5 and I generally use keys rather than straight boxing them.

e.g. Maybe something like this for exactas and tris;

A,B / A,B,C,D / A, B, C, D

It cuts down the cost a little bit instead of boxing them and also better represents the opinion I may have came up with for a race.

A four horse trifecta box is 24 combinations so depending on the amount you're paying 24 x your wager. Five horses boxed is 60 combinations for the tri. Six horse boxed is 120 combinations. If you can get a longshot or two to hit the triefcta then those 5 or 6 horse boxes can be worth it. But, if it ends up with three of the top choices finishing top 3 then something like that isn't worth it at all. In fact last year with the favourite winning the tri only paid about 100/1 so if you used a 6 horse box you would have lost money with that wager. Boxing 4 horses is fine. You'll make some money regardless. But when boxing 5 or 6 you're best to try to sneak a longshot or two in there like you did with Whitmore. If not, then someone is better off just picking a winner due to the potential payouts.

 

[Sharkey]

Sharkey I don't know if you have these options wherever you bet but a lot of the online books will give out horse vs horse lines on who places better between the two. For instance we aren't very high on Mohaymen going in even though he's only at 10-1, the books might match him up with a horse with a similar line like Gun Runner and we could probably get a steal at -110 or whatever the price just for him to finish better than Mohaymen even if neither of them finish at the top of the bunch.

I'm gonna look to bet a couple of horses we like head to head against Mohaymen if the prices are right. If he does indeed under perform then there's some good money to be made in basically fading him against other horses who are primed to run better. Hoping to get a line or two to fade him on if the books put him against the right horse/horses.

Hmm, I don't have that option right now, but I may have to open another sportsbook account somewhere and try to get a piece of that. I'd love to fade Mohaymen in some bets. Good looking out Blunt. Appreciate you putting that in my mind. Great idea.

As Bruno De Julio said earlier today in regards to Mohaymen;

"He's got no shot.", "No shot".

 

[Sharkey]

Some pedigree data combining Brisnet's AWD of the sire and dam sire that I already posted, which, I should mention, is the average winning distance (in furlongs) of the offspring of the sire and dam sire. Following that is the Tomlinson distance rating of each horse with the higher number the better. Following that is the dosage index of this year's runners (higher number equals more speed orientated pedigree and lower equaling more stamina orientated pedigree). Dosage is a bit of an outdated concept in the game, but I'll include it anyways. Some of this will conflict with each other with certain since each piece of data obviously uses different factors to determine;

1 - Trojan Nation - (8.0, 7.7), (TDR of 304), (DI of 3.44)
2 - Suddenbreakingnews - (7.3, 7.4), (TDR of 359), (DI of 4.20)
3 - Creator - (7.5, 8.5), (TDR of 356), (DI of 3.00)
4 - Mo Tom - (7.1, 7.0), (TDR of 209), (DI of 1.55)
5 - Gun Runner - (7.0, 8.2), (TDR of 261), (DI of 1.25)
6 - My Man Sam - (6.6, 7.9), (TDR of 283), (DI of 3.00)
7 - Oscar Nominated - (7.8, 9.1), (TDR of 355), (DI of 2.53)
8 - Lani - (7.5, 8.7), (TDR of 278), (DI of 1.92)
9 - Destin - (8.2, 6.4), (TDR of 310), (DI of 1.43)
10 - Whitmore - (7.6, 7.1), (TDR of 264), (DI of 2.38)
11 - Exaggerator - (7.6, 6.9), (TDR of 238), (DI of 3.40)
12 - Tom's Ready - (7.0, 7.5), (TDR of 322), (DI of 3.00)
13 - Nyquist - (7.1, 6.4), (TDR of 202), (DI of 7.00)
14 - Mohaymen - (7.5, 6.9), (TDR of 249), (DI of 3.00)
15 - Outwork - (7.1, 7.7), (TDR of 242), (DI of 11.00)
16 - Shagaf - (7.6, 7.2), (TDR of 236), (DI of 3.80)
17 - Mor Spirit - (7.3, 6.9), (TDR of 262), (DI of 1.57)
18 - Majesto - (7.6, 7.2), (TDR of 364), (DI of 2.33)
19 - Brody's Cause - (8.2, 7.2), (TDR of 332), (DI of 1.38)
20 - Danzing Candy - (6.4, 6.0), (TDR of 226), (DI of 3.80)

For what it's worth, which admittedly may not be much, 28 of the last 35 Derby winners had a dosage index of 3.50 or lower with the average for the Derby winners over that span being 2.72. The highest dosage for a Derby winner in that span was 5.33.

 

[Sharkey]

Danzing Candy's last four half mile intervals in his races where he went to the lead in each of them; 45 3/5, 46 3/5, 46 flat, and 45 1/5 last time out. Danzing Candy drew post 20 and has potential early speed types like Nyquist, Mohaymen, Outwork, Shagaf, and Mor Spirit drawing just inside of him. If he wants the lead again, and his history gives every indication that he does, he's going to have to be gunned out of the gate if he wants to avoid being trapped way on the outside through the first turn. You don't think there's going to be pace for the late runners to run at considering that? If you're still not convinced, Danzing Candy's dam sire is Songandaprayer, who just happens to hold the record for running the fastest first half mile in Derby history at 44 4/5 (0:55 mark);

 

[mkess101]

Some pedigree data combining Brisnet's AWD of the sire and dam sire that I already posted, which, I should mention, is the average winning distance (in furlongs) of the offspring of the sire and dam sire. Following that is the Tomlinson distance rating of each horse with the higher number the better. Following that is the dosage index of this year's runners (higher number equals more speed orientated pedigree and lower equaling more stamina orientated pedigree). Dosage is a bit of an outdated concept in the game, but I'll include it anyways. Some of this will conflict with each other with certain since each piece of data obviously uses different factors to determine;

1 - Trojan Nation - (8.0, 7.7), (TDR of 304), (DI of 3.44)
2 - Suddenbreakingnews - (7.3, 7.4), (TDR of 359), (DI of 4.20)
3 - Creator - (7.5, 8.5), (TDR of 356), (DI of 3.00)
4 - Mo Tom - (7.1, 7.0), (TDR of 209), (DI of 1.55)
5 - Gun Runner - (7.0, 8.2), (TDR of 261), (DI of 1.25)
6 - My Man Sam - (6.6, 7.9), (TDR of 283), (DI of 3.00)
7 - Oscar Nominated - (7.8, 9.1), (TDR of 355), (DI of 2.53)
8 - Lani - (7.5, 8.7), (TDR of 278), (DI of 1.92)
9 - Destin - (8.2, 6.4), (TDR of 310), (DI of 1.43)
10 - Whitmore - (7.6, 7.1), (TDR of 264), (DI of 2.38)
11 - Exaggerator - (7.6, 6.9), (TDR of 238), (DI of 3.40)
12 - Tom's Ready - (7.0, 7.5), (TDR of 322), (DI of 3.00)
13 - Nyquist - (7.1, 6.4), (TDR of 202), (DI of 7.00)
14 - Mohaymen - (7.5, 6.9), (TDR of 249), (DI of 3.00)
15 - Outwork - (7.1, 7.7), (TDR of 242), (DI of 11.00)
16 - Shagaf - (7.6, 7.2), (TDR of 236), (DI of 3.80)
17 - Mor Spirit - (7.3, 6.9), (TDR of 262), (DI of 1.57)
18 - Majesto - (7.6, 7.2), (TDR of 364), (DI of 2.33)
19 - Brody's Cause - (8.2, 7.2), (TDR of 332), (DI of 1.38)
20 - Danzing Candy - (6.4, 6.0), (TDR of 226), (DI of 3.80)

For what it's worth, which admittedly may not be much, 28 of the last 35 Derby winners had a dosage index of 3.50 or lower with the average for the Derby winners over that span being 2.72. The highest dosage for a Derby winner in that span was 5.33.

Awesome stuff Sharkey. I see nothing here that would dissuade me at all from the 3 horses I like.

From what I see, the morning line fave Nyquist has some question marks at this distance? High DI (like you said might not be super relevant) and looks like the wins are coming at short distances with that average of 6.4.

Lani and Oscar Nominated both look like stamina horses. May not have the speed needed for it to even be close to mattering I guess but Oscar Nominated is 50-1, Lani 20-1.

I'll wait to see your breakdowns on these two plus the others.

Amazing stuff man, thanks.

 

[Sharkey]

Awesome stuff Sharkey. I see nothing here that would dissuade me at all from the 3 horses I like.

From what I see, the morning line fave Nyquist has some question marks at this distance? High DI (like you said might not be super relevant) and looks like the wins are coming at short distances with that average of 6.4.

Lani and Oscar Nominated both look like stamina horses. May not have the speed needed for it to even be close to mattering I guess but Oscar Nominated is 50-1, Lani 20-1.

I'll wait to see your breakdowns on these two plus the others.

Amazing stuff man, thanks.

Cheers man.

I think you should be just fine with your choices with Whitmore being the only one I'd really have any concerns about since, like I said to you earlier in the thread, he's had some issues sustaining his run to the wire in his recent races. He's made race winning moves on the turn in each of them, but just flattened out a little over the last 1/16th in each of them. But he's got a new jock in Victor Espinoza who's very likely to ride him differently, whether that being him putting Whitmore into the race in the early goings of it or waiting a little bit to make his late move. We'll see what happens, though. You're getting paid 30/1 on a horse that, to me, really only has to answer that one question. That's great value.

There could be questions with Nyquist there, yeah. I talked to Blunt about some earlier. His sire Uncle Mo, is a new sire in the game so that data wouldn't be as honed in as others. But his grand sire on the top, Indian Charlie, and great grand sire, In Excess, were horses that influenced their offspring by passing along speed. On the female side Nyquist's dam sire, Forestry, is another speed influence being a horse better in sprint races himself. Forestry has also passed speed to his offspring, who are almost always sprinters and milers. Nyquist's pedigree is heavy on being influenced for sprint and mile races. Like I said to Blunt, Nyquist's best races from the standpoint of figures have been in races at shorter distances so far unlike a lot of these. But you never know.

I'm not taking either Oscar Nominated or Lani very seriously going into the race myself. Oscar Nominated has distance bred into him but those are all turf influences. He's never raced on dirt himself over his first 7 races. He won the Spiral in a blanket finish as well (as a big longshot in terribly weak prep race), which doesn't say much about his level of talent being all that better than those other Spiral runners. Oscar Nominated's owners didn't even want to put up the nomination fee to enter the race for themselves either, as they were trying to get someone else to sponsor them and put the money up. I don't think this one will embarrass himself by finishing last or anything just due to his stamina influence. But if can manage to finish 10th or so I'd say that's a win for him.

Lani has been good for the laughs every morning in training up to the Derby. He's been showing off his 5th leg at every opportunity. He's been yelling at any other horses that run by him. He's been refusing to work out on some days. And other days he won't stop working out as he just keeps galloping around and around the track up to 4 or 5 times. He can run a long ways if he feels like it. No doubt about that. But he's a total unfocused headcase who I wouldn't trust even if he was fast enough, which he most certainly isn't so far. He also won his final prep race (another really weak prep race) under a blanket finish with 4 horses finishing within 1 1/2 lengths at the wire.

 

[Sharkey]

Sharkey I don't know if you have these options wherever you bet but a lot of the online books will give out horse vs horse lines on who places better between the two. For instance we aren't very high on Mohaymen going in even though he's only at 10-1, the books might match him up with a horse with a similar line like Gun Runner and we could probably get a steal at -110 or whatever the price just for him to finish better than Mohaymen even if neither of them finish at the top of the bunch.

I'm gonna look to bet a couple of horses we like head to head against Mohaymen if the prices are right. If he does indeed under perform then there's some good money to be made in basically fading him against other horses who are primed to run better. Hoping to get a line or two to fade him on if the books put him against the right horse/horses.

It's pretty amazing how much support Mohaymen is still getting, Blunt. It really is. Just saw one poll with people predicting the winner and Mohaymen is sitting in 2nd place right now behind Nyquist. Amazing how much hype this horse got over the winter & spring and seemingly still gets.

Must have been that 1 1/2 length win over Flexibility that convinces people Mohaymen has a shot at the roses even though Flexibility is the same horse who came back in the Wood last month, was way overbet, and finished 7th of 8 about 25 lengths behind Outwork. Or maybe it was that 3 1/2 lengths win over Greenpointcrusader in the Holy Bull that impresses people. The same Greenpointcrusader, who was bet down to 2nd choice in the Louisiana Derby and ended up finishing 7th of 10 while beaten 11 lengths by Gun Runner. Or maybe it was the 2 1/4 lengths win over the mighty Zulu that convinced people that Mohaymen was the goods. The same Zulu who was bet down to favouritsm in the Blue Grass only to see him finished 12th of 14 while beaten 20+ lengths by Brody's Cause.

Those are the horses Mohaymen has been beating. Nobody else. And those are the horses that, by virtue of finishing 2nd to an overhyped Mohaymen previously, had been bet way down in their next races only to see them get beaten by daylight by other horses. *shrugs*

Those who hyped up Mohaymen earlier in the year are trying to excuse his Florida Derby effort by saying they weren't even trying to win. Ah, do you put the whip to a horse about 15 times in the turn and into the stretch if you're not trying? No. No you don't.

Mohayhem is basically Soldat v2. Soldat being a Derby runner from 5 years ago who happened to share the same trainer as Mohaymen does, and also had a similar path leading into the Derby. Soldat was a good 2 year-old who, like Mohaymen, ran a couple of good races early in his 3 year-old campaign at Gulfstream Park. He received a lot of early Derby hype as one of the top 2 three year-olds after his nice Fountain of Youth win (which Mohaymen won as well). Soldat then entered the Florida Derby as the favourite in that race and was a well beaten 5th after fading, finishing over 10 lengths back. Plenty of people still forgave Soldat for that effort when betting the Derby, though, as he went to post at odds of 11/1. He ended up stalking a slow pace in the Derby while in the 3rd or 4th positions early before fading badly over the last half of the race finishing 11th.

 

[Sharkey]

I looked at that Oaks race earlier today, as well. Watched some races and looked over the PP's. I'm going to take a shot with the #3 Lewis Bay as I originally thought. With speed drawing outside with the #9 and Rachel's little girl in the #11 post, as well as from the #4, I think the shape of the race will favour one with that mid-pack running style like Lewis Bay has. She should have a good trip from her post and I see her getting first run on the closers, who I think are kind of weak anyways. If I wasn't betting the fan in me would like to see Rachel's little girl get it done. But she had a hard, hard race last time out in the Ashland, and with a race like that coming after a layoff, I would not be surprised at all if she regresses some after that effort. So Lewis Bay will be the play for me in the Oaks. What the hell. Like I said, I don't typically bet the Oaks. But with an 8/1 morning line, the race shape possibly favouring her, her experience and sucess at this distance already, and with the way she's been training up to it, I think it's worth the play.

 

[Sharkey]

If you guys want free PP's for this weekend's big races or any other, the following site is usually very good for having them;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I got Lewis Bay at +750, thanks for the heads up as always.

 

[Sharkey]

I got Lewis Bay at +750, thanks for the heads up as always.

Best of luck man. That's a nice price too since I suspect she'll be bet down to the 6/1 or even 5/1 range in the pools tomorrow.

 

[Sharkey]

@mkess101

I think I'm going to have to pass on doing a horse-by-horse analysis my man. Just started doing it a little while ago, wrote some stuff about Trojan Nation and Suddenbreakingnews, and it was already a big long post at that point. Doing all 20 would be too much I think. But if you have questions about any one (or two, three, whatever) horse I'd be happy to give you my thoughts on them. Otherwise I'll probably just end of categorizing the field into certain spots.

 

[Sharkey]

I do want to make a quick comparison, though, between Creator and Exaggerator and how they finished their last prep race by using raw times. If you watch each of those races it will visually look like Exaggerator is ending his race faster than is Creator is in his. It's really nothing but an illusion, though, since the horses Exaggerator was passing were beyond dead tired at the point he was going by them.

- Exaggerator's final 3 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby were ran in 38.09 with the final furlong being ran in 13.38

- Creator's final 3 furlong time in the Arkansas Derby was 37.70 (fastest out of all Derby runners in final prep on dirt) with the final furlong ran in 12.66

Using raw times, Creator was faster than Exaggerator over the final 3 furlongs and significantly so over their final furlongs.

 

[Sharkey]

Whitmore's 38.10 final 3 furlongs time is actually the same as Exaggerator's final 3 furlongs time of 38.09.

 

[Sharkey]

Exagerrator is really the only one left I have to make a decision on at this point. I'm 50/50 and could go either way with him. He profiles as good as anybody based on the data I gave out on the first couple of pages. But there's also that big question with him regarding how much that sloppy track last time out improved his performance. According to most figure makers, his two best performances last fall came over a muddy track while his best performance this spring has been over the slop. His last three races over a dry fast track, while okay, were quite a bit less impressive and he flattened out in the stretch in each of those three races on a fast track. Is he simply just a slop specialist? His sire, Curlin, wasn't, but it's hard to argue against Curlin's dominating win in the slop during the BC Classic not being the best performance of his career. Or maybe, like a lot of offspring of Curlin's, Exagerrator is simply improving later than most and is getting good at the right time and his last race wasn't as slop aided as some think. I really don't know. Maybe best to bet that indecisiveness of mine in one or two saver exactas or something. Don't want to leave him off completely because I do think he's one of the more likely winners. But I also don't want to rely on him as much as others either since I don't have the confidence he'll run well regardless.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

What are your thoughts on My Man Sam, Sharkey? I believe he was the guy we bet and almost duplicated the Creator run but came up a little short. I'm a fan of the closers but admittedly don't know much about most of these horses compared to a real fan like yourself. i was impressed by his close in that race and almost coming back to win after being so far back most of the race. Currently sitting at 20-1 at my book, just wondering if he's one of the horses that could possibly take this with another late close if he goes about it right.

Also looking at Gun Runner at 10-1 since he seems like one of the best horses in the field and you mentioned he has the best post in the race.

 

[Sharkey]

Still a day and a half to go, but I think I've finally settled on how I'm going to play this race;

Win bet on Creator.

Creator, Nyquist / Creator, Nyquist, Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner / Creator, Nyquist, Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner

That's how I'm playing exactas and tris. Unless my math is off that's 6 combinations in the exacta and 12 combinations in the tri. I'll be playing those for $10 (ex) and $5 (tri) each, but combinations like that work for anybody regardless of budget.

While I do have some questions about Nyquist in regards to him getting the distance, perhaps his fitness level, and how the pace plays out and his position in it, I ultimately don't have the balls to try to beat him completely out of the top 3. I have too much respect for his abilities and accomplishments to try to do that outright, although I wouldn't fault anybody else for trying. I am hoping for a finish with Creator in 1st, Suddenbreakingnews in 2nd, and Gun Runner in 3rd, though. That's a five figure profit right there.

I'm also going to have a "just in case" exacta box with Creator and Exaggerator for $10 as well. Just in case.

 

[Sharkey]

What are your thoughts on My Man Sam, Sharkey? I believe he was the guy we bet and almost duplicated the Creator run but came up a little short. I'm a fan of the closers but admittedly don't know much about most of these horses compared to a real fan like yourself. i was impressed by his close in that race and almost coming back to win after being so far back most of the race. Currently sitting at 20-1 at my book, just wondering if he's one of the horses that could possibly take this with another late close if he goes about it right.

Also looking at Gun Runner at 10-1 since he seems like one of the best horses in the field and you mentioned he has the best post in the race.

We did bet him in the Blue Grass and he almost got it done for us. When I watched that race live I was looking at him as one that may be able to come running late and hit the board in the Derby, and he still might. But when I rewatched the race I was kinda disappointed in what I saw. If you watch the Blue Grass again you can see him tossing his head up and down, left and right while rounding the first turn. Didn't like to see that at all. Too green. He also didn't start his late run til after they hit the stretch. Was still sitting about 10th or 11th when he reached the stretch himself. That move won't get it done in the Derby. He's trained pretty well this past week or two, but he's another high energy type. Not nearly as bad as Mohaymen has shown. But similar to an extent. He's also just a wee little guy compared to some others in the field. Surprised at how small he is. Think he'll be able to match up physically with a big guy like Creator if both are wanting the same part of the track? Poor little guy may get bumped all the way into the infield. The Keeneland track was also playing kind to closers on Blue Grass day as well. I don't know if I would say it was an outright track bias. But the closers were winning more than typical on that day at the track. I think My Man Sam has a lot of upside and do think he's a talented runner. Hell, we backed him in his last race. But, considering he's a Trappe Shot colt (who mainly sires sprinter types) and still runs a little green, I'm more inclined to think his best running comes later this summer and in races that are a little shorter in distance than 10F. He would be a huge surprise to me if he wins the Derby, although he could certainly make a late run if given the room and fill out a tri or super. I prefer others a little bit more myself, though.

 

[Sharkey]

The other horse from that Blue Grass, Brody's Cause, that guy is a pro. I don't think he's fast enough to win this race myself unless there's a pace meltdown and a couple of other closers have trouble along the way. But this guy is a solid, professional runner, who is really focused when he runs and is in tuned to what his jockey wants him to do in races. Bred well for the distance too. If he profiled a little better with the data I compiled I'd probably be using him. That X, P thorograph pattern that he has in particular and it having not produced a single board hitters over the last 19 years is what turned me off the most. Especially at 12/1 or whatever he goes off at. Wouldn't fault anyone who used him, though.