Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

@BluntTrauma21

I hope I'm not talking you off My Man Sam if you do like him. Especially when you can get 20/1 on him. I was just giving my thoughts on him, that's all. But you've seen him run before, as you have a lot of these these runners for the most part I think. If your gut says that you like him then trust that over some putz like me on the internet. Don't ever let anybody talk you off a horse if you're interested in playing him. That goes for anybody.
 
Sharkey said:
@mkess101

I think I'm going to have to pass on doing a horse-by-horse analysis my man. Just started doing it a little while ago, wrote some stuff about Trojan Nation and Suddenbreakingnews, and it was already a big long post at that point. Doing all 20 would be too much I think. But if you have questions about any one (or two, three, whatever) horse I'd be happy to give you my thoughts on them. Otherwise I'll probably just end of categorizing the field into certain spots.
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Totally cool. You covered 3 of the 5 that I was eyeing anyway in your last few posts! Nyquist as the favorite, Brody's Cause, and Exaggerator. If you could just give short breakdowns on Outwork and Danzig Candy (and you sort of covered Danzig Candy as being a speed horse that drew outside postion, so basically he needs to beat the other sprinters to the front to set the pace and then might have a shot otherwise he's screwed) I'm all good. Do you think there's any chance he can do that? And then your thoughts on Outwork's chances.

Thanks man again for the amazing info and breakdowns.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
I got Lewis Bay at +750, thanks for the heads up as always.
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Yep hit that too in the sportsbook. Need Rachel Valentina to run plus the field to be 13 or more horses to have action but I can't imagine both of those not happening
 
mkess101 said:
Totally cool. You covered 3 of the 5 that I was eyeing anyway in your last few posts! Nyquist as the favorite, Brody's Cause, and Exaggerator. If you could just give short breakdowns on Outwork and Danzig Candy (and you sort of covered Danzig Candy as being a speed horse that drew outside postion, so basically he needs to beat the other sprinters to the front to set the pace and then might have a shot otherwise he's screwed) I'm all good. Do you think there's any chance he can do that? And then your thoughts on Outwork's chances.

Thanks man again for the amazing info and breakdowns.
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Out of those two I'd much prefer Outwork myself. Unlike Danzing Candy, who's shown he's basically a need the lead type so far in his career, Outwork has shown a little bit of versatility in running style. He can sit on the lead or sit right off the leader stalking from the outside. Outwork is also a big tough, gritty type as he showed in the Tampa Bay Derby and in the Wood. In the TB Derby Destin came around the trun like he was going to go right by him, but Outwork ending up fighting all the way to the line and was only beaten by a head. He showed similar grit in the Wood where he battled Matt King Coal the whole way around through fast fractions and was still able to hang on to win by a nose. He was crawling home by that point, and if there was a closer worth a damn in the race he gets beat. But he got the job done and that's all that counts. He's also been getting glowing reviews from the clockers watching his training leading up to the race, but I don't put as much stock into that as others may since he's also been an excellent workout horse in the mornings. e.g. He used to beat up on Destin training for the TB Derby, yet when the money was on the line it was Destin who took the prize. Outwork is okay and he should get some stamina influence from the female side of his family with his dam sire being a Belmont winner at 12F. He may be the most inexperienced horse in the field, though, with him really only having 3 races to his credit. He did have another race over a year ago, but that was a little 4.5F paid workout for the most part against a small field. This may be the case of "too much, too soon" for him.

I liked Danzing Candy a lot earlier in the year and he paid me with a nice win ticket when he won the San Felipe a couple of months ago. I bet him back in the San Anita off that effort, and I knew my ticket was toast before they even hit the gate. He seemed to be mad at the world that day, acting up in the paddock area and before loading. Generally just being immature. He looked like he may be a run off candidate before entering the gate and that's exactly what he did in the race running the first half mile in 45 seconds or something crazy like that. It's hard to have much confidence in him based on both the way he performed and the way he acted that day. Being from a sprinter-miler family on both the top and bottom side doesn't add any confidence either. His post isn't good either since if he's going to want the lead again (and he's given no indication that he wouldn't), he's going to have to go to clear those inside of him. If he somehow doesn't go for the lead then he's doing something that he's never tried and the Derby really isn't the time to try new running styles. I think he's up against in a big way on Saturday. From a pace standpoint. From a distance standpoint. From a Derby history standpoint that says very, very few rebound from such a bad race going into the Derby. And that's if he's actually behaving himself before entering the gate. If he's not behaving then, well, if you're looking to play a trifecta on the 3 that finish at the bottom of the order he might be one of your guys.
 
Cliff Sise, who trains Danzing Candy, was asked why he decided enter Danzing Candy in the Derby off such a poor performance in his last race. Sise's response was simply, but it said a ton. He answered "The owners" to that question.
 
Lewis Bay currently sitting at 7/2 in the early betting for the Oaks. Wow. I figured she'd get bet down a little from her morning line odds, but I didn't think the whole friggin world would be on her. Looks like you guys are getting a fantastic price on her at +750.
 
It's way early in the betting obviously, but if the odds on Nyquist (2/1 currently) and Exaggerator (5/1) are about the same at this time tomorrow I think I'll be looking to play against both even in exotics. I like the lack of support shown to Creator (16/1 currently) and Suddenbreakingnews (24/1) so far. I'd love to get anything close to those odds tomorrow.
 
Thanks for the feedback on Sam, Shark. I didn't have a strong lean on him so that's why I asked if he was worth it or not, glad to get your thoughts on him.

Speaking of Danzig Candy, yeah that was insane how fast he started in SA. He was just smoking everybody else for a good portion of that race then totally ran out of gas. Guessing he'll do the same in the Derby tomorrow, set a fast pace and then slow mid-late. Don't know a lot about horse racing but seems like that's good for the other horses who want to be up front trying to keep pace with him, they might tire out just trying to stay close and that'll give way to the closers to take advantage of them late.
 
heres some of the horse vs horse matchups that I was talking about, this for the Oaks obviously. Anything you like here?

Cathryn Sophia -130
Land Over Sea +100

Fri 5/6 Dream Dance -140
5:50PM Venus Valentine +110

Fri 5/6 Rachel's Valentina -160
5:50PM Cathryn Sophia +120

Fri 5/6 Terra Promessa +105
5:50PM Go Maggie Go -145

Fri 5/6 Weep No More -140
5:50PM Lewis Bay +100

Fri 5/6 Mokat +115
5:50PM Royal Obsession -155
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Thanks for the feedback on Sam, Shark. I didn't have a strong lean on him so that's why I asked if he was worth it or not, glad to get your thoughts on him.

Speaking of Danzig Candy, yeah that was insane how fast he started in SA. He was just smoking everybody else for a good portion of that race then totally ran out of gas. Guessing he'll do the same in the Derby tomorrow, set a fast pace and then slow mid-late. Don't know a lot about horse racing but seems like that's good for the other horses who want to be up front trying to keep pace with him, they might tire out just trying to stay close and that'll give way to the closers to take advantage of them late.
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Yeah, Danzing Candy was out of control in that race. Wasn't good. But that would certainly be good for those of us on Creator or any other off the pace type if he did something similar again in the Derby. He wouldn't even have to go quite that fast to give the late runners a chance. I'll take anything in the 46 point something range, and the more contested it is amongst horses the better for us.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
heres some of the horse vs horse matchups that I was talking about, this for the Oaks obviously. Anything you like here?

Cathryn Sophia -130
Land Over Sea +100

Fri 5/6 Dream Dance -140
5:50PM Venus Valentine +110

Fri 5/6 Rachel's Valentina -160
5:50PM Cathryn Sophia +120

Fri 5/6 Terra Promessa +105
5:50PM Go Maggie Go -145

Fri 5/6 Weep No More -140
5:50PM Lewis Bay +100

Fri 5/6 Mokat +115
5:50PM Royal Obsession -155
Click to expand...

Well, we are on Lewis Bay, so I'd take that one. Weep No More is a closer who'll be making a late run, but I think her last race was flattered some by the pace battle up front and maybe even the track too.
 
Shitty.

I think you still hit your matchup, though, didn't you Blunt?
 
Lewis Bay did keep her nose out in front for 3rd. She did beat Weep No More for your matchup wager at least.
 
Didn't catch the race but hearing Lewis Bay ran a good race just didn't get there. Yeah I hit that prop, thanks for the feedback on that. Broke even so good stuff overall. Just wish I saw it, always fun to watch win or lose or in this case draw :).
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Didn't catch the race but hearing Lewis Bay ran a good race just didn't get there. Yeah I hit that prop, thanks for the feedback on that. Broke even so good stuff overall. Just wish I saw it, always fun to watch win or lose or in this case draw :).
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She got a little rank in the opening moments of the race. May have cost herself a better chance as she looked like a winner when they came off the turn. Had a couple of lengths on those behind her at that point, but then she faded late. The winner was the best horse, though.
 
Here's some other props for the Derby you find interesting, Sharkey. Well they're not that interesting they're just show payouts but they also have top 5 payouts that I'll post in a minute as well.


Trojan Nation finishes in top 3 +1200
suddenbreakingnews top 3 +425
Creator finishes in top 3 +320
Mo Tom finishes in top 3 +425
Gun Runner finishes in top 3 +215
Oscar Nominated finishes in top 3 +1200
Lani finishes in top 3 +600
Destin finishes in top 3 +300
Whitmore finishes in top 3 +625
Exaggerator finishes in top 3 +160
Tom's Ready finishes in top 3 +800
Nyquist finishes in top 3 -150
Mohaymen finishes in top 3 +200
Outwork finishes in top 3 +375
Shagaf finishes in top 3 +950
Mor Spirit finishes in top 3 +260
Majesto finishes in top 3 +800
Brody's Cause finishes in top 3 +320
Danzing Candy finishes in top 3 +550

Can't fade Mohaymen to show yet they're not giving out lines on the other side so far. figured I'd post just to see if any catch your eye.
 
Top 5 odds. These might be more interesting, don't get these very often from books:

Trojan Nation finishes in top 5 +600

Suddenbreakingnews, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1403 Suddenbreakingnews finishes in top 5 +225

Creator, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1405 Creator finishes in top 5 +165

Mo Tom, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1407 Mo Tom finishes in top 5 +225

Gun Runner, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1409 Gun Runner finishes in top 5 +100

My Man Sam, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1411 My Man Sam finishes in top 5 +225

Oscar Nominated, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1413 Oscar Nominated finishes in top 5 +600

Lani, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1415 Lani finishes in top 5 +300

Destin, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1417 Destin finishes in top 5 +150

Whitmore, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1419 Whitmore finishes in top 5 +310

Exaggerator, Nyquist, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1421 Exaggerator finishes in top 5 -160

Tom's Ready, Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1423 Tom's Ready finishes in top 5 +400

Nyquist, Exaggerator, & a minimum 18 horse field must run for action
Sat 5/7 1425 Nyquist finishes in top 5 -250
 
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