Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

As you know, I'm pretty high on the Arkansas Derby runners, Blunt. I think it was the deepest prep as far as overall talent goes and could be the key prep race for tomorrow. I'd play those guys in those props because I think those lines are really undervaluing those three runners. Creator and Suddenbreakingnews both look strong to finish inside the top 3 to me, and if you're getting plus money you could play those in the top 5 as well along with Whitmore. I'm not seeing him listed there but I could also see a top 5 finish for Majesto at good odds as well if that's an option for you.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Don't see Majesto but will keep an eye on him for sure. In the meantime I locked in suddenbreakingnews top 5 at +225. Really like that line.

 

[Sharkey]

Don't see Majesto but will keep an eye on him for sure. In the meantime I locked in suddenbreakingnews top 5 at +225. Really like that line.

That's a really good line. He's made his late run in every single one of his 8 career races, so I don't see any reason at all why he wouldn't do so again tomorrow.

 

[Sharkey]

Based on the Oaks-Derby will pays the betting public looks to be backing in order; Nyquist, Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Gun Runner, Mor Spirit, Creator, Destin, Brody's Cause, Suddenbreakingnews, and Mo Tom as the top 10 choices in the betting. Outwork and My Man Sam the next two. No big surprises there.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@Sharkey been waiting on these lines all week. Horse vs horse matchups. Think we'll like a few of these matchups fading Mohaymen.

Nyquist -200
Exaggerator +170

Nyquist -195
Mohaymen +168

Nyquist -265
Brody's Cause +225

Nyquist -235
Destin +195

Nyquist -240
My Man Sam +200

Nyquist -195
Mor Spirit +168

Exaggerator -145
Mohaymen +125

Exaggerator -160
Brody's Cause +140

Exaggerator -145
Destin +125

Exaggerator -160
My Man Sam +140

Exaggerator -135
Mor Spirit +115

Exaggerator -145
Gun Runner +125

Exaggerator -150
Creator +130

Mohaymen -150
Brody's Cause +130

Mohaymen -135
Destin +115

Mohaymen -140
My Man Sam +120

Mohaymen -120
Mor Spirit +100

Mohaymen -120
Gun Runner +100

Mohaymen -130
Creator +110

Brody's Cause -110
Destin -110

Brody's Cause -105
My Man Sam -115

Brody's Cause +100
Mor Spirit -120

Brody's Cause +115
Gun Runner -135

Brody's Cause -105
Creator -115

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Destin -125
My Man Sam +105

Destin -110
Mor Spirit -110

Destin -105
Gun Runner -115

Destin -110
Creator -110

My Man Sam +100
Mor Spirit -120

My Man Sam +105
Gun Runner -125

My Man Sam -105
Creator -115

Mor Spirit -105
Gun Runner -115

Mor Spirit -115
Creator -105

Gun Runner -115
Creator -105

Trojan Nation -110
Oscar Nominated -130

Trojan Nation +500
Nyquist -900

Suddenbreakingnews -120
Mo Tom -120

Suddenbreakingnews +250
Nyquist -350

Suddenbreakingnews -120
Brody's Cause -120

Creator +225
Nyquist -305

Mo Tom -120
My Man Sam -120

Mo Tom +250
Nyquist -350

Gun Runner +170
Nyquist -230

My Man Sam -120
Outwork -120

Oscar Nominated +500
Nyquist -900

Oscar Nominated -110
Shagaf -130

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Lani -110
Whitmore -130

Lani +310
Nyquist -430

Lani -115
Danzing Candy -125

Whitmore -145
Tom's Ready +105

Whitmore +330
Nyquist -490

Tom's Ready +400
Nyquist -600

Tom's Ready -125
Majesto -115

Nyquist -335
Outwork +245

Nyquist -750
Shagaf +450

Nyquist -600
Majesto +400

Nyquist -420
Danzing Candy +300

Outwork -130
Danzing Candy -110

Shagaf -105
Majesto -135

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Sorry for the long posts, had to copy and paste them then post them to make them readable. Any Mohaymen matchup you find particularly intriguing and any other matchups you like overall? I know it's a lot to look into but would appreciate any input on these, feel like a lot of money making potential b/c this is basically the only way to really fade horses we don't like i.e. Mohaymen.

 

[mkess101]

^^^Thanks BT I was waiting for those. So far I hit:

Gun Runner +100 vs Mohaymen for 1u
Creator +110 vs Mohaymen for 1.5u
Brody's Cause +130 vs Mohaymen for .75u

 

[mkess101]

Creator top 5 finish +165 for 1u
Whitmore top 5 finish +320 for .75u

 

[Sharkey]

Sorry for the long posts, had to copy and paste them then post them to make them readable. Any Mohaymen matchup you find particularly intriguing and any other matchups you like overall? I know it's a lot to look into but would appreciate any input on these, feel like a lot of money making potential b/c this is basically the only way to really fade horses we don't like i.e. Mohaymen.

I would look at any where he's matched up with a late runner who is well bred to get the distance myself. Those would be the safest by far. Horses like Creator, of course. Brody's Cause is another one. I didn't see the matchup listed there but Suddenbreakingnews would be another if you can get it. These guys are going to be running late and provided they don't run into the asses of those horses that are tiring late and backing up, should very get finishes well inside the top half of the field regardless. Didn't see Majesto either, but he's another one although different in style. He'll just be grinding away, grinding away all throughout the race and the stamina that has been bred into him and that he seems to posses should allow him a finish inside the top half of the field as well. Unless Mohaymen somehow runs the race of his life I'd feel good about any of those matchups at the odds you'd be getting.

 

[Sharkey]

@mkess101 has got the right idea. I like all those plays a lot.

 

[Sharkey]

"He who dares not grasp the thorn should never crave the rose."

- Anne Bonte

 

[Sharkey]

@mkess101

Looks like you have some very good company with your Whitmore wagers my friend. I just got done listening to an interview with Paul Matties, who is the reigning National Handicapping Champion in horse racing, and he really, really likes Whitmore as a longshot candidate who could get it done at a big price later today.

 

[Sharkey]

I've been kind of burnt out over the last couple of days trying to think how I'm going to play the Derby, but I finally decided that I'm going to try for a decent score with some very limited coverage that will allow me to increase my betting amounts;


- Win bet on Creator

- Exacta box with Creator, Suddenbreakingnews and Gun Runner

- A couple of straight trifectas with Creator on top in both of them with those other two mixed for 2nd and 3rd


Ultimately I felt like I had to drop Nyquist and Exaggerator out of the plans because I'm looking to hit something more than a 30/1 or 50/1 exacta. A Creator-Gun Runner exacta should pay at least 100/1 at the minimum while the other four combinations should pay well above 200/1 if they should hit. And I'm doubling my wagering amount playing it this way too without using Nyquist or Exaggerator, which makes the potential payoffs that much better. These 5/2 or 6/1 shots like Nyquist and Exaggerator are available every weekend and with less questions surrounding them. This is the Derby. I'm going to take a shot at a nice score instead rather than try to play it safe. And the three I landed on have been really good to me this spring already, so I'm hoping my luck with them continues.

Best of luck to anyone betting this year's race no matter who and how you're betting. We're all going to need as much luck as we can get with a 20 horse field filled with potential chaos.

 

[mkess101]

@mkess101

Looks like you have some very good company with your Whitmore wagers my friend. I just got done listening to an interview with Paul Matties, who is the reigning National Handicapping Champion in horse racing, and he really, really likes Whitmore as a longshot candidate who could get it done at a big price later today.

Sweet! Well win or lose I feel good about being on this horse today then.

 

[mkess101]

FYI for anyone on 5d looking to make win bets on the Derby:

Check the odds in the sportsbook as you can get better odds to win there on a lot of the horses.

Gun Runner is currently I think 10-1 at track odds but +1250 in the sportsbook.

Trojan Nation I think is at 37-1 track odds right now to win but in the sportsbook at 5d you can get him at +6500!

There's others too.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Wow, it just started to pour rain down there. Exactly when they started the national anthem

 

[Sharkey]

I didn't bet it myself, but a lot of smart people like Divisidero in this race.

 

[Sharkey]

...and Divisidero gets his nose in front at the line.