Maia vs. RDA

[Safton]

Say these two BJJ stylists crossed paths at Welterweight some time between mid-2017 and late 2019, after RDA made his debut at 170. It occurs to me that they were both fairly active in the division in this time frame and had a few mutual opponents*, but never fought each other.

How would the fight go? Would RDA's defensive grappling hold up against the larger man, allowing him to outstrike Maia on the feet? Or would Maia be able to take him down and outgrapple him?

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*Mutual opponents:

• Both men lost to Kamaru Usman by Unanimous Decision, though Maia arguably performed better outside of Chris Lee shenanigans.
• Both men lost to Colby Covington by Unanimous Decision, with RDA arguably performing better in a five-round fight as compared to Maia's three-rounder.
• Both men submitted Neil Magny: RDA in Rd 1, Maia in Rd 2.

 

[SteveColdStone]

Maia has good wrestling but it’s just not good enough at close to 40 when coming up against the likes of Woodley and Usman. RDA has always struggled with his TDD. I think Maia would get him down and would win early rounds but wouldn’t be able to tap him. If it’s a 5 round fight then RDA could take advantage of Maia’a suspect cardio in the second half of the fight.


3 rounds = Maia decision
5 rounds = RDA could get the win

 

[Safton]

Maia has good wrestling but it’s just not good enough at close to 40 when coming up against the likes of Woodley and Usman. RDA has always struggled with his TDD. I think Maia would get him down and would win early rounds but wouldn’t be able to tap him. If it’s a 5 round fight then RDA could take advantage of Maia’a suspect cardio in the second half of the fight.


3 rounds = Maia decision
5 rounds = RDA could get the win

This is pretty much how I see it as well after giving it some thought. In a three-rounder I suspect Maia would be able to use his grappling to take RDA down and control positions, threaten subs, and maybe land some strikes for the first half of the fight before gassing late. I don't think he would be able to finish RDA though -- the latter's defensive BJJ fundamentals are too solid for that. The closest I can remember anyone coming to subbing RDA in recent memory is Chiesa threatening a straight armlock, but I'm not sure that was as close as the commentators made it sound. And Maia isn't exactly known for his vicious GnP. I think by Rd 3 he would be fairly tired and unable to be as competitive in the standup and also much lazier in his shots, allowing RDA to sprawl more effectively before punishing him with strikes. I would almost expect a 29-28 Maia UD. Smaller chance here for maybe a Split depending on how competitive Round 2 is, or a 29-27 Maia if Demian really goes for broke early with the grappling domination and the judges reward that (though I doubt it as many judges during this time frame weren't quite as liberal with 10-8s even for guys in backpack threatening subs across much of a round if there wasn't much GnP).

In a five-rounder it goes similarly, but I think RDA potentially manages his energy better, surviving the grappling onslaught of the first two rounds before putting on the gas in the last three. I think Demian still has something on the table here considering he was able to be competitive in a few 5-rounders in his career and his cardio was actually looking fairly fresh in Rd 3 against Askren prior to finishing him despite constant grappling beforehand. That said, part of me is still thinking RDA by razor-thin 48-47 Decision or (far less likely) late TKO of some kind, but it's much closer.