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Megan Anderson vs. Amanda Nunes - Opening Betting Odds

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Dave Henderson, Jan 23, 2021.

  1. Dave Henderson Orange Belt

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    Opening Odds:

    Nunes: -1000

    Anderson: +650


    Does anyone feel the odds for Anderson are to high ? I'm thinking more like +1600 or even +2000 for Anderson..... Not +650.
     
  2. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Hahahahahaha +2000 I love you
     
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  3. shankmcgank Beep/Boop/Bop

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    When Dobson beat Agapova, the biggest betting upset in MMA history, Dobson opened at +500 and ended up around +650 (depending on whose odds you use).

    Agapova opened up around -1400 and finished -1600+.

    I just can't see the justification to for the odds you are suggesting.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Books are never gonna give +2000 for an MMA fight where weird things happen. It's just never gonna happen. Here's a good example why:

    Remember Jones vs Sonnen? Jones was around -650 iirc, Chael around +450. Something like that. And Chael basically had NO chance to win. Jones was much bigger. The far better MMA wrestler/grappler despite Chael's amateur pedigree, the vastly superior striker. Chael literally didn't even have a puncher's chance, because he didn't hit hard enough to hurt Jones even if he landed some flush bomb by pure luck (and Jones chin was well established by then). Jones could have given Chael a few "free shots" and probably laughed them off.

    And even despite all that, Chael STILL almost won. Because Jones mangled his big toe so badly while pushing off the mat with it that had Chael made it out of the round they'd have stopped the fight and Chael would have won by TKO.

    The books just won't pay 20-1 on an underdog in this sport, especially in a title fight where it's presumed the challenger will at least have a pulse and be there to be something other than a punching bag. Sometimes that's what they end up looking like of course, but books aren't gonna be burned by giving those crazy steep odds.
     
  5. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    We've seen +2000 several times in MMA, though. Bobbi Jo Dalziel was even as high as +3000 against Kayla Harrison. The flip-side of this, -2000, is even more common.

    It's an exceptionally rare line because it imagines that even a freak series of events wouldn't be enough for the underdog to win, but ultimately, it's still just implying that the underdog has a less than 5% chance of success. That is certainly possible.
     
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  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    You'll see it on occasion, just not in a UFC title fight. No matter the mismatch. Realistically, Valentina had a less than 5% chance of losing to Jessica Eye probably. She was still -1200 or so I think (maybe lower?). The implied odds just won't match the lines in gigantic title fight mismatches in the UFC. Maybe the Serra/GSP effect has something to do with it?
     
  7. Post 2 Decision Gold Belt

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    Valentina Shevchenko was -1800 vs Jennifer Maia +850
     
  8. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    Yep and Valentina swung all the way to -300 ish after Maia won round 2.
     
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  9. guesswhoseback Orange Belt

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    and -5000 after 4th
     
  10. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    your unlikely to see +2000 because books know idiots look at +800 or +1200 or whatever and just see a big number while not realizing that the true odds relative to the favorite should be +2000 and they will bet it regardless.
     
  11. Broe. Brown Belt

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    -200 lol. I could hardly believe it but i managed to get a big bet on it.
     
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  12. Fincher7 Brown Belt

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    You can get plus money on Nunes by sub?
     
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  13. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    I like Nunes but -1000!?
    I will probably bet her by sub line but wont go all the way in.
     

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