Melo over Cheesecake all day long

epluribusunum

epluribusunum

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I wagered a C note on Vanessa Melo defeating Sarah Moras. I was pretty shocked to discover she was a +190 under dog. I would have made that wager at even.

I re-watched a few fights of both and just don't know how Moras wins this, except for a pillow fisted punchers chance. Moras has no way to get on top, she always resorts to her guard where she rarely gets a sub, and Melo has never been submitted. Sarah's kryptonite is losing via decision, because she's always on bottom; Melo's strength is to win via decision.

Easy money or am I missing something?moras.png
 
Melo is 0-3 in the UFC. I wouldn’t bet on her winning a fight against a random highschooler.

That said, Moras is 3-5 in the UFC over the last 5 or so years. She has fought a lot tougher competition so that’s at least something. I think she’s a terrible fighter.

<6>

Both should be cut from the roster and their slot should be given to some up and coming fighters. That’s my take on this one. Hard pass on the bets.
 
Val
Spath said:
Melo is 0-3 in the UFC. I wouldn’t bet on her winning a fight against a random highschooler.

That said, Moras is 3-5 in the UFC over the last 5 or so years. She has fought a lot tougher competition so that’s at least something. I think she’s a terrible fighter.

<6>

Both should be cut from the roster and their slot should be given to some up and coming fighters. That’s my take on this one. Hard pass on the bets.
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Yes, that's true.(0-3 UFC) And I think the odds makers are banking on that too. But Melo's losses were to 3 tough opponents that I believe would have finished Moras. (Cortez, Aldana, Rosa) And Cheesecake's wins were against weak competition. It's all about matchups, and I bellieve this is a bad one for Moras. But we'll see in a few days, I still feel it's a good value bet.
 
I've not looked too much into it yet but will likely be on Melos if she remains a good side underdog.

Low level WMMA is usually something I'm fairly happy to blind bet big dogs. Obviously if one of the fighters is legit it's usually not worth going against her, but both being a similar low level and it being WMMA, the fights tend to go the distance more often it seems, with them often being closer than odds reflect.

I might have a look at some point at BFO to see how odds closed to determine how you'd do just blind betting every WMMA underdog last year.
 
Good analysis OP, this is the kind of stuff many ' in the know' MMA bettors seem to leave out of their analysis of these fights.

Melo also arguably won the third round of her last fight despite taking a ton of damage the first two rounds.

Melo has fought the toughest competition her division had to offer, seemingly by chance, and that is also part of why she is getting a fourth fight to prove herself.
 
Dooze said:
I've not looked too much into it yet but will likely be on Melos if she remains a good side underdog.

Low level WMMA is usually something I'm fairly happy to blind bet big dogs. Obviously if one of the fighters is legit it's usually not worth going against her, but both being a similar low level and it being WMMA, the fights tend to go the distance more often it seems, with them often being closer than odds reflect.

I might have a look at some point at BFO to see how odds closed to determine how you'd do just blind betting every WMMA underdog last year.
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I only bet WMMA, because it's less complex and not "nearly" as many fluke KO's. I can watch video of the women and have a pretty good ideas who will win, not so much w/ men. I increased my betting account 600 percent last year, so I'm sticking w/ this philosophy. Cheers.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Good analysis OP, this is the kind of stuff many ' in the know' MMA bettors seem to leave out of their analysis of these fights.

Melo also arguably won the third round of her last fight despite taking a ton of damage the first two rounds.

Melo has fought the toughest competition her division had to offer, seemingly by chance, and that is also part of why she is getting a fourth fight to prove herself.
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Now I'm starting to think I should have bet more. I successfully placed my largest wager ever against Rachael Ostovich in her last fight under similar circumstances. After playing that fight over and over in my mind; I couldn't find a way that she could win. I think at plus 190 for Melo, this is a no brainer.
 
epluribusunum said:
Val

Yes, that's true.(0-3 UFC) And I think the odds makers are banking on that too. But Melo's losses were to 3 tough opponents that I believe would have finished Moras. (Cortez, Aldana, Rosa) And Cheesecake's wins were against weak competition. It's all about matchups, and I bellieve this is a bad one for Moras. But we'll see in a few days, I still feel it's a good value bet.
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I get the talking points here, but I don't like the idea of betting to someone just because they've lost to tough competition. Don't forget Melo was 10-5 outside the ufc and the best win of her career is beating Molly McCann on Molly's 2nd pro fight. She'd likely also lose to a lot of mid-level ufc comp. I agree that it's good line value and laying any money on Moras feels idiotic, but I wouldn't be too confident.
 
Nice Job on the win there!
You should have had Max Holloway for a nice bonus!
 
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