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NFL Super Bowl 50 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jae Gibbz, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. MYSTXRIVL Banned Banned

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    i wish i could get panthers at -3 half, i dont like betting high spread numbers... probably just going to parlay panthers moneyline with djokovic
     
  2. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    oops forgot to look at reduced. Thanks, yeah gonna end up doing something like this for sure. I would love to let it ride but I can't trust Denver in this situation. Have to get something back, imo.
     
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

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  4. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    You should have just copy and pasted what you said without the spoiler. Here it is:

    Nov 30th - "Broncos +1100 to win the SB

    Disclaimer: i dont think the Broncos are the favorites to win the SB or anything, but these odds will be very easy to hedge out of come playoff time. They have a top tier defense and their running game has come alive with the injury to Peyton. This is also not an overreaction to their win yesterday, I just feel as though no one other than the Patriots is a better team in the AFC. I'm putting a unit on this. Brock will also only get better with more playing time"



    How much did you bet? I doubt you bet this much, but I am going to assume you bet a unit.

    I don't know which side you want to be on or if you want a guaranteed profit.

    8.8u to win 4u on Panthers

    You win 3u on Panthers or 2.2u on Broncos


    You can obviously scale this down to whatever you bet
     
  5. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Panthers turnovers committed +.5 -150 1.25u

    The wording is pretty vague and I probably should have contacted customer service first, but I am pretty sure this prop hits if neither team commit a turnover, the game ends with both teams tied in turnovers, or the Broncos commit more turnovers. I say this because Broncos turnovers committed is -135 and they should be favored to commit more turnovers. The difference between the two props is that I think the +.5 hits because of the first two reasons I listed above.

    Anyway...

    The Panthers lead the league in turnover differential with a staggering +20. 2nd is +14 and 5th is only +7. Denver is tied for 19th with -4...

    The Panthers lead the league in grabbing interceptions with 24 (good thing)

    The Broncos lead the league in throwing interceptions with 23 (bad thing)



    Obviously there are other factors involved and anything can happen, but I think the odds on this are GREAT. I think it should be 250/-300

    I should go contact customer service now lol. If I am right I am adding more to this


    EDIT: I contacted them and they are vague as hell. No definite concrete explanation. I'm 95%+ I'm correct on this, so I'm adding .75u. So I'm on this prop -150 to win 1.25u. Thinking about going bigger still... lol
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2016
  6. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Thomas Davis wins the Super Bowl MVP +40000 (5d future) .025u

    I can't believe I'm making this play, but it definitely has value. He has a broken arm that he suffered in the NFC championship game and will most likely play with it. If he remotely has an impactful game that is close or mainly defensive or somehow pulls something off that is clutch or heroic, I can totally see him getting the MVP being magnified by him playing with a broken arm. He is also 1 of the 3 defensive captains on the team (Luke Kuechly and Charles Johnson the other 2). I mean come on... If a guy with a broken arm pulls off some impactful/clutch/heroic shit in a Super Bowl, you know he's being considered for MVP...

    With that said, it's possible he might not play at all or a lot and he could completely suck because of his broken arm, but I am taking a shot with $2.50 for $1000
     
  7. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    A broken arm?! Jesus if that isn't a sign these dudes are on some serious roids......
     
  8. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Haha nah, But he will definitely be drugged up on some legal shit, and will be numb as hell
     
  9. iGnP Silver Belt

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    highly doubt he even makes it to the game honestly. i mean, what kind of doctor would allow that less than two weeks removed from surgery
     
  10. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I wouldn't be surprised at all if he didn't play. I was just making the case for if he did play
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    To play a football game two weeks after suffering a broken arm, you have to be on an addicting level of painkillers lol that shit just aint right
     
  12. iGnP Silver Belt

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    no i get what you mean. and i agree that itd be a nice story for him to win MVP if he makes a big play. why not at those odds. even outside of his injury, dude is one of the best guys off the field
     
  13. iGnP Silver Belt

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    just to keep the conversation going on MVP props i think Josh Norman at +2000 has good value. Peyton's arm strength has obviously regressed but he's done a good job of covering it up by throwing quick passes to the outside or intermediate throws to the middle of the field. If he throws the ball outside of the numbers, it ball definitely hangs in the air longer than he wants it to. Josh Norman is a very aggressive corner who can def pick one of those passes off and take it to the house. Peyton has been a game manager in recent games so I expect him to play it safe and avoid those throws, but if the running game isnt working and the Broncos fall behind, he might not have a choice but to try and shoulder the burden of making a comeback in his final game

    edit: Emmanuel Sanders is +1800 too. not bad considering he might be getting a lot of Peyton's attention if Norman is covering DT. I think i actually like that better than the Norman prop lol
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2016
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Totally agree with the Josh Norman part. I already have him at +10000. By the way, what book are you using? Both books I'm looking at pretty much have 2x better odds than both of those plays

    I just put down .05u on Brock Osweiler to win the Super Bowl MVP +8000. Basically in this scenario of Manning stinking it up, and Brock comes in and wins the game
     
  15. iGnP Silver Belt

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    really? damn lucky. i use a small local book unfortunately

    and just for argument's sake, do you think its possible that the broncos would bench manning if he's stinking? i feel like thatd be such a slap in the face in his final game haha
     
  16. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Ah =/. Alright. At least it's probably easier to deal with regarding other issues like depositing and cashing out
     
  17. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Any scoreless quarter +270 .5u

    Highest scoring quarter is not second-quarter -180 .25u

    Yardage of longest field goal made Over 44.5 -110 .5u

    Both teams make a 33+ yard field goal +110 .5u





    Okay, I don't feel like doing a write up for each of these props, so I am just going to do a short summary.


    Both have good defenses

    Will most likely be a low-scoring-ish game

    Both field-goal kickers were tied for 5th with most field goals made

    Both field-goal kickers are easily capable of making 50+ yard field goals

    Both field-goal kickers should have opportunities and what should be a defensive, low-scoring game


    By the way,

    Neither kicker misses an extra point -360 is good parlay fodder, IMO
     
  18. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Only if he threw like 2-3 interceptions in the first half. It also includes a Manning game ending injury which is totally possible
     
  19. cberasi Green Belt

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    This is +165 right now on 5d. I must be interpreting this wrong b/c I am surprised at the odds. You win if one team does not score on three consecutive possessions? If they kick 2 field goals for example and then punt the ball on their next possession, it starts back over at 0? How can a team scoring on three consecutive possessions without punting or turning the ball over be favored with these 2 defenses, I am surprised it happens enough in any football game disregard the quality of the 2 defenses involved to be this high of + odds. This also doesn't say anything about the other team scoring, if the other team scores does this negate the 3 "straight" times for the other team? I believe I am lost.
     
  20. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    haha Yeah you're lost. Don't worry though. They have the worst wording. I get confused a lot on their props as well.

    Basically, if either team scores 3 times straight without the other team scoring this prop loses (3 unanswered scores). It doesn't necessarily have to be 3 straight possessions

    This is how I interpret it, at least
     

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