1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

NFL Super Bowl 50 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jae Gibbz, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,738
    Likes Received:
    6,685
    You are exactly correct.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,738
    Likes Received:
    6,685
    I really do like the field over Cam for MVP bet. It's up to +120 now.

    Over the first 49 Super Bowls played, MVP has been on winning team all but once. All 26 QB's to win the award played on winning team. So let's start with the fact that for Cam to win, Carolina has to win the game. He's not winning if they lose. While they are certainly favored, the odds give them only about a 65-70% chance of winning. Favored yes, but no lock.

    So out of 48 MVP's from winning teams, 26 have been QB. That's 54%. So even if Carolina wins, history says Cam's odds are only 54% to win. Add to that Denver has an excellent D and so does Carolina and that this could likely be a low scoring game and imo the odds really might drop even to just 50/50 on a Cam win even if Carolina does win the game.

    Not only that, there's also sort of a built in hedge play if you want it. You can bet Carolina's ML at -245. You could definitely win both bets (Carolina wins but Cam doesn't win MVP) but it's almost impossible you lose both (as I said, if Denver wins Cam isn't winning MVP).
     
  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    4,182
    Likes Received:
    165
    Power outage prop is 20-1...should be like 100 to 1

    Man i would think we could somehow get a tip off on the gatorade at least

    Pretty funny the amount of props possible
     
  5. iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,728
    Likes Received:
    10
    6 points is too many. im gonna be on the Broncos spread and ML
     
  6. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    4,182
    Likes Received:
    165
    I agree and am on broncos spread. Their d is good enough to make it close
     
  7. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    Haha There was a power outage three years ago. And yeah it's crazy, they keep adding new props every day lol

    I was thinking the same thing. However, I might just stick to prop bets
     
  8. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    I added a few more plays/amounts to plays I already made.


    It's sounding more likely that Thomas Davis will play, so I doubled my my very small bet to .05u.

    +40000 for him to win MVP is just crazy odds even though he will probably be limited. If he does not play and I lose the $5, Oh well then.



    No team 2 straight scores +3000 .25u.

    Yeah, it is pretty unlikely, but I do not think it is that unlikely



    Ted Ginn Jr Longest punt return -130 to win .5u

    He was slightly better than the Broncos punt returner this year, and he should have more punt returning opportunities
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    +40000 might be the most ridiculous line of all time. Gonna play it just for that reason.

    Also like that line on Ginn Jr
     
  10. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    Yeah, +40000 is crazy for him. He would probably be around +3000 if he was fully healthy

    I like the line on Ginn Jr., too. I can't be betting more than .5u on a prop like that, though. With that said, I still love that Panthers committed turnovers +.5 prop -150, though. That has serious value
     
  11. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    4,182
    Likes Received:
    165
    Ok I think I am done for the superbowl, I want to avoid having too much on the game then I won't be able to relax and enjoy watching it! There is a fine line between sweat and stress :)

    I am freerolling the actual winner becuase of my CAR futures bet so I don't really mind who wins.

    My least favourite bet is betting the field against Newton but whatever I will just let it ride.

    2u - under 45

    2u Denver +5.5

    1u Super Bowl 50 - Carolina Panthers +430 (futures)

    0.25u Kuechly wins Super Bowl 50 MVP +2500

    1.5u (Cam Newton) Field wins Super Bowl 50 MVP +110
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,738
    Likes Received:
    6,685

    Is the Davis bet on 5d? I'm looking through the props and don't see him as an option for MVP.

    Edit: Okay I found it under futures but now at +30000. I am trying make a little play on it but it won't take my bet. Weird.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2016
  13. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    Yeah, it is under futures. That's weird, I just went to put another $1 on it to see if it would take my bet and it did
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,738
    Likes Received:
    6,685
    What the hell? It won't let me bet any player futures for football. It just refreshes the screen and doesn't take me to the screen where it says "continue" or "cancel". I tried a baseball furture and it took me right to that screen. I don't get it.
     
  15. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    That's weird. Did you try logging out and logging back in?
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,738
    Likes Received:
    6,685
    Yep I'm chatting with them now.
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,738
    Likes Received:
    6,685
    So that guy was zero help and I still can't make the bet. He just kept saying "delete your cookies and temp files". So bizarre, let's me make any future wager other than football. It just reloads the page when I hit "continue". I tried in both Firefox and Explorer so it has nothing to do with my browser. The guy in the chat told me the "site is working fine". I said yeah, almost the whole thing is for me too. Guess I'll try again later.
     
  18. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    Damn, that sucks. Their live chat is barely any help at all.
     
  19. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2015
    Messages:
    3,178
    Likes Received:
    0
    Know next to nothing about the NFL but I have started watching it more. The panthers are fucking great but the Broncos have amazing defence. They are +200 dog on 365 right now. Is that normal?
     
  20. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    Yeah, that is normal. They are +213 on 5d
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.