Decided to make some tennis pre-bets, for a change. Started with a moderate bet on Sofia Kenin at -132 against Kaia Kanepi. Normally, when a fairly normal, almost cute-looking girl faces a muscle-bound ogre, you go with the ogre. However, this line is funny, because Kenin would have been a -300 favorite or greater just a month ago. Since then, however, Kenin has looked mildly disappointing in Qatar and the pre-Australian Open tournament. Not bad, but somewhat below expectations. She needed miraculous comebacks to defeat good players in Putintseva and Pegula, and was then beaten by very good opponents in Sakkari and Muguruza. Kanepi, meanwhile, is 35 years old, riddled with injuries, and was playing her best about a decade ago. However, she upset Sabylenka, ending her 15-match and 3 tournament winning streak, spurring a run to the finals of that pre-Aussie tournament, and then demolished her round 1 opponent at the Australian, while Kenin looked shaky in defeating a tomato can in Madison Ingles. Here's the thing about that Sabylaneka match, which I watched and bet on. Kanepi looked okay in set 1, poor in set 2, and then played one of the best sets of her life in set 3. And in the finals of that tournament, she was demolished 6-4, 6-1 by Mertens. The point is this. Kanepi is still capable of playing great tennis, but like a lot of older players, only in spurts. She's been playing a lot more tennis recently, and she won't get away with such an on off approach against Kenin, who is never out of a match and is probably the mentally toughest player on the entire tour. And who rises to the occasion in the bigger matches and moments. This close to evens, Kenin is worth a play. There are two other bets I'm eyeing that I may write up.