Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

Decided to make some tennis pre-bets, for a change.

Started with a moderate bet on Sofia Kenin at -132 against Kaia Kanepi.

Normally, when a fairly normal, almost cute-looking girl faces a muscle-bound ogre, you go with the ogre.

However, this line is funny, because Kenin would have been a -300 favorite or greater just a month ago. Since then, however, Kenin has looked mildly disappointing in Qatar and the pre-Australian Open tournament. Not bad, but somewhat below expectations. She needed miraculous comebacks to defeat good players in Putintseva and Pegula, and was then beaten by very good opponents in Sakkari and Muguruza.

Kanepi, meanwhile, is 35 years old, riddled with injuries, and was playing her best about a decade ago. However, she upset Sabylenka, ending her 15-match and 3 tournament winning streak, spurring a run to the finals of that pre-Aussie tournament, and then demolished her round 1 opponent at the Australian, while Kenin looked shaky in defeating a tomato can in Madison Ingles.

Here's the thing about that Sabylaneka match, which I watched and bet on. Kanepi looked okay in set 1, poor in set 2, and then played one of the best sets of her life in set 3. And in the finals of that tournament, she was demolished 6-4, 6-1 by Mertens.

The point is this. Kanepi is still capable of playing great tennis, but like a lot of older players, only in spurts. She's been playing a lot more tennis recently, and she won't get away with such an on off approach against Kenin, who is never out of a match and is probably the mentally toughest player on the entire tour. And who rises to the occasion in the bigger matches and moments.

This close to evens, Kenin is worth a play.

There are two other bets I'm eyeing that I may write up.

 

Kanepi looks like a juiced up dude. Wtf.
Good luck. Keep posting your plays.

 

Welp, that didn't go well! Kanepi played good, probably in the 80th percentile of her performances, but nothing extraordinary or better than what I've seen before.

The problem, however, was that Kenin played by far her worst match all year. Just awful. Welp, the defending champion is now out in Round 2!

Luckily, I made all that money back and then some hitting Kontaveit at -105 after dropping the first set tie-breaker to Heather Watson. (Exactly the situation noted in my post about live betting) Not that it was sweat-free; Kontaveit got as high as about +190 during some tense moments in set 2, although the third and final set was far more straighforward.

Anywho, might as well run down two other good lines, although I might hold off on the first after seeing Kenin walloped;

Svitolina at -185 against Coco Gauff

Like a lot of promising young players, Gauff is treated as a much stronger player by the oddsmakers (and presumably bettors) than her ranking, 47th in the world, would indicate. Unlike say Jannik Sinner or Sebastian Korda on the men's side, I don't think she warrants it. That being said, her style of getting a lot of balls back, hit with above-average speed, without going for too many outright winners serves her well against higher-ranked players, even if it's a liability against lower-ranked ones.

Still, Svitolina is only this much of a favorite?! Svitolina is #5 in the world, good at everything, in the prime of her career, one of the more consistent players on tour, AND has looked strong in her first two tournaments of 2020.

Maybe I will wait for an even better live-bet spot, but I don't see how Svitolina isn't in the -300 to -400 range here.

Jessica Pegula at -494 against Samantha Stosur

After beating a former Grand Slam champion in Azarenka in round 1, Pegula is rewarded by facing another former Grand Slam champion Sam Stosur in round 2.

Of course, that's where the similarities end. Azarenka is 31 and still a very good player, if not what she used to be. Meanwhile, Stosur is 36, quasi-retired, and has nothing left to offer. The only reason she even got an invite into the Australian Open is through a wildcard, since Stosur is Australian.

Stosur looked like absolute dogshit in Round 1 but won anyways, since she was matched up against a fellow Aussie, Destanee Aiva, ranked #203 in the world, who managed to play even worse. It was a dreadful eyesore of a match, on par with something like Vanessa Melo versus Sara Moras in WMMA, and should have been played on the fucking Challenger's circuit, not a WTA main draw, nevermind a goddamn Grand Slam. Hurray for rigged draws!

How in the world is Stosur going to beat a good opponent like Pegula? Who knows; it would take her playing the absolute best match she is capable of and Pegula playing at her very, very worst. None of her shots should trouble Pegula, that's for sure. This would be a Pegula -1500 line if not for the memory of the player Stosur was a decade ago.

 

2/2! I was wrong about Pegula looking like more of a -1500 than a -490.

Really, she looked like more of a -10000 en route to a 6-0, 6-1 domination, although even THAT doesn't properly convey how one-sided it was.

However, the main reason I'm making this post is actually to convey some future information. While Svitolina won in a seemingly easy manner, 6-4, 6-3, Gauff impressed me. She is visibly improving elements of her game, and while that wasn't enough against a Svitolina playing her very best tennis, she was definitely able to hang for a while.

While -185 was still value and a little overambitious, my estimate of -300 to -400 wasn't quite right, either. I would definitely be warier about fading Gauff in the future, especially if her hype falls a little now.

 

Oaklawn Park
RACE 3

#4 Melting Snow (9/2)

 

WINNER

WIN $4.60
PLACE $3.00
SHOW $2.40

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Minimum of 3/1 morning line odds and beating the favorite to even wager. Win and Place bets, along with an exacta with the top choiced keyed with the next two selections.

$2 WIN/PLACE 1 = $4
$1 EXA 1/2-3 = $2
-------
$6 per race



====================================================
RACE 6
#2 Between Dreams (8/1), ridden by Vasquez, trained by Barboza

$2 WIN/PLACE 2
$1 EXA 2/3-1
====================================================
RACE 7
#11 Dugout (10/1), ridden by Berrios, trained by Sanchez

$2 WIN/PLACE 11
$1 EXA 11/4-8
=====================================================
RACE 9
#5 My Miss Miracle (8/1), ridden by Lopez, trained by Pletcher

$2 WIN/PLACE 5
$1 EXA 5/1-3

 

Gardner Webb +180 @ Radford, 100 to win 180

 

Updated above


RED = Loser!
YELLOW = Top selection scratched -- no wager.

 

Well, the Australian Open finals are set, and while I've had a lot of success this week betting smaller events (partially making up for the bloodbath last weekend), there is one play that is worth making, ESPECIALLY if you have the ability to hedge live.

Jennifer Brady at +400 against Osaka

I'm really scratching my head at this line. Osaka should be the favorite, sure, but by THIS much? Osaka looked mediocre at times in the pre-Australian Open tournament before withdrawing to give herself additional rest, and while she has played better during the Grand Slam itself, I wouldn't call her run amazing or dominant.

I mentioned in my rundown of futures that Serena Williams doesn't have the energy to win the 7 straight matches required to take a Grand Slam anymore, and at the Australian Open, thanks to vastly improved fitness levels from her that surprised everyone, myself included...she had 5 good matches in her. Osaka was opponent #6.

Aside from that, the only opponent Osaka faced who is of equal or better level than Brady was Muguraza, a match where Osaka was badly losing and even dead to rights at times before winning by the skin of her teeth in the 3rd set, 7-5.

Brady can match her power and actually has a slightly better forehand, moves well, only a little worse than Osaka, is mentally tough, and has very good netplay. The only significant advantage I see for Osaka is her serve, and even then, not by much. This is partially made up for by Osaka being a significantly weaker returner than one would expect. Maybe Osaka has slightly better consistency on her shots, especially in big moments, but again, we're talking small differences, well within the variance of player performance.

They played fairly recently on hard-courts too, also in a big match, the semi-finals of last year's US Open. Osaka won the first set on a tie-breaker, lost a competitive second set, and then won a competitive third set.

If Brady even replicates that relative level of performance, there will be an opportunity to live-hedge on her for a considerable profit.

I get the feeling that there is a lot more casual money on the finals of a Grand Slam, and thus, we're getting a very overinflated favorite. Reminds me of McGregor against Poirier, although in that case, I thought Poirier was flat-out better. Not the case here, but still value.

 

Alas, Brady let the pressure get to her, only relaxing when she was too far behind, and didn't replicate her performance from the US Open last year, while Osaka was as poised as ever.

That being said...there was indeed a good moment to live-hedge, regardless! At 4-4 on serve with Osaka being heavily pressured at 0-30, Osaka was down to a mere -222, which guarantees a profit of 0.55u per 1u investment on the initial +400.

That's why such big plus numbers are almost always value in the women's game. Unless you think a player is just going to rip through their opponent and blow them off the court with power shots, dominating from the word "go", there will be some tense/close moments that will bring down the live odds considerably.

Even in a match that Osaka won fairly comfortably, 6-4 6-3.

 

All my tennis betting mates are saying it's Medvedev's time. I'm not buying it, getting even money on Djok seems like a steal against someone who has never won a slam. They are reading too much into their earlier game but a 5 set gram slam final is a whole other ball game. I think if Medvedev is to win he will need to do it early, the longer this drags out the less likely he is to win it.

@PolarBearPaulVarelans Am I wrong?

£300 Djok -105 to win £285
£20 Djok 3-2 +600 to win £120

 

I think the big value play (which I took advantage of) was Medvedev at only -210 or so against Tsitsipas in the semifinals. I couldn't believe my eyes on that one. As for the finals, I actually agree with the current line.

Yeah, Djokovic is still phenomenal, but I've definitely noticed a slight decrease in his level of play, which, considering he is a few months shy of 34, isn't shocking. Many legends of the past were washed-up or long since retired at that age, and even Federer and Nadal were past their best by then, too.

Meanwhile, Medvedev is playing at a simply unbelievable level right now. He was always uber-talented and is now FINALLY realizing his tremendous potential...which actually reminds me of Djokovic in 2011.

More to the point, Medvedev's return game will threaten Djokovic's serve as much as Djokovic's legendary returning will bother his. And Medvedev is so good that even if his groundstroke consistency is off, he can still hold serve and keep pace.

Djokovic and Medvedev are the two best hard court players in the world now, and honestly, I don't see a clear, obvious edge for the Serbian legend.

 

Ok thanks for your insight. I changed my bet to something more sensible. I doubt he wins in straight sets and this way I only risk half a unit.

£50 Djok 3-2 +600 to win £300
£25 Djok 3-1 +480 to win £120

 

Anytime I've seen Djokovic anywhere close to even money and not bet on him I've regretted it

 

Djokovic about to 3-0 this man

 

Not only do I lose every ufc bet today,
I talk myself into not betting the one djok result of straight sets. Ah well, at least I get out of quarentining in crappy Jarkata and go Bali first thing tomorrow. Hopefully I have better luck there

 

Yeah, my bad in talking you out of the straight moneyline. I didn't think Medvedev would let the occasion overwhelm him, especially given his performance at the 2019 US Open Finals, but he absolutely did. Djokovic was playing at his very best, and Medvedev turned in a relatively poor performance, rushing through certain shots and going for too much at times. That's all it takes, and perhaps I need to take the mental aspect more into account for Grand Slam Finals, versus regular matches.

Well, there are exceptions. I did try to talk my man @BigSteve out of betting Djokovic last year in the French Open finals against Nadal, at dog odds no less, and I was correct that time.

But on hard courts? Djokovic proved he is still the king.

 

It's all good, all the decent tennis bettors I know were telling me the same thing. I don't know what happened but after the first set, Medvedev just looked lost in there. I'm more upset that Djok won due to being a huge Federer fan, who I hope still has one last Wimbledon win left in him.

 

AQUEDUCT

RACE 7
#6 Bank Sting (6/1)

speed of the race, class of the race