Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by t6p, Dec 1, 2016.
Be fair to Barry he got that one spot on.
Not too bad..live bet took rockets at half at +320
95% of his posts are absolute garbage lol. Give it time, he will lose many more than he wins
I wanted to hit the +9.5 2H line but I missed it bc I went to take a shower. Ah. Nice bet
He picked the game correctly yes. I was more mocking his "sources close to me" and all the silliness about how the team is in total disarray because JR Smith is a flake (which he has been his entire career, in NY and now in Cleveland). If the Cavs go into a giant tailspin and end up as the 4th seed in the east or something I'll give Barry full credit. When they easily win the east and go to the finals again we'll realize he happened to pick a game correctly early in the season.
I will say this (and I've said it before): He's better at NBA capping than anything else we've seen him do here. His MMA capping is a straight up joke. The little NFL and MLB capping I've seen him do isn't much better. I don't follow soccer but from what I've seen he seems to suck there too. But with what I've seen of his NBA capping it's not bad. If I just trash him about everything without being honest that's not fair. From what I've seen, someone could do much worse than tailing his NBA plays.
I wouldn't say that they are any points better or worse than Utah, but they usually score a lot so if they win they cover -3 most of the time.
Rockets missed shots they usually make and defended poorly as they usually do, can't cap cold shooting nights, should have capped their inability to beat a defensive minded team if they can't turn the game into a shootout.
I do agree with coaching adjusting and home court being a factor, but I also think you disregard trends too lightly.
Rockets are 29th in terms of defending the 3-point shot and we saw that in the game, not every statistical number is an attempt at NBA-math, a lot of trends don't even out and are specially valuable in NBA,in my non-pro perspective, because they play so many games that a statistical set of numbers that adds up to 82 instances of something or something else happening belongs to 1 single team in 1 season.
Early leans for tonight:
I think the books are continuing to overvalue the Wolves. With all of their young talent, they're looking like one of the worst teams in the league. On Wednesday, in Minnesota, they got 47 points from KAT and a 39-15 advantage in free throws attempted. Yet, they still managed to be trailing by 17 with 7 minutes to play (granted they came back to tie the game, but they still lost to a Knicks team that has been bad on the road). The Wolves have also been bad ATS (2-7 on the road ATS and overall). The Knicks have been playing well at home, especially recently. My only concern here is the "revenge factor" but I still like the Knicks to cover the points.
This is going to be the Clippers 3rd road game in 4 days. They snapped a 3 game losing streak last night in Cleveland and I could see a little bit of a letdown here. The Pelicans have been playing much better after their bad start and they've won 5 straight home games. Considering a play on the moneyline too at +190.
LOVE Nuggets -4
Edit okay maybe don't LOVE it but I'll prob pay the juice on the ML.
so how do you find value in a line?
Regarding the Knicks/Wolves: did you notice that the Wolves *won* 3 out of 4 quarters in their game on Wednesday? The one quarter in which the Knicks outscored the Wolves had a big margin that the Wolves couldnt make up. I kinda like siding w the Wolves in this situation. Also, while KAT having 47 it definitely an outlier and that probably wont happen again, so is the rest of the Wolves shooting 34.5% on the night. I 100% agree that the Wolves have been overrated so far and that creates good fading opportunities, but I think they might be the right side tonight. I mean, Knicks -2 would imply the Wolves are about a point better in the grand scheme of things on a neutral field, which I think is maybe fair (i dont think the Knicks team is particularly good). IDK, i think ill be on the Wolves ML for half a unit but Ill most likely pass on the game
Because of the back to back for the Rockets?
I watched the entire game and felt that the Knicks outplayed them until their run in the last 7 mins. The Knicks had a 17 point lead in the 4th. Also, this game was contrary to how the Wolves have played this season. They've typically been an excellent first half team and terrible in the second half, especially the 3rd quarter.
EDIT: The free throw differential is also huge IMO. That's very unlikely to happen again and it was the main thing that kept them within striking distance.
Yep. They played double OT against the rival Warriors and now have to go into altitude to play against the underrated Nuggets when Harden, Ariza, and Ariza played over 40 min (Eric Gordon played 38, too). Tired legs aren't gonna be too great shooting the ball tonight. As a cherry on top, I believe the Nuggets are one of the top teams at getting offensive rebounds. If this line was a pick em, id legit consider going in for like 6-7 units
Probability assessment, match-up analysis, outside factors, price.
I don't think -4 is a great price but the game is a road-road back to back, which is the last of 5 road games in a row for the rockets, and last night they went to double OT.
Rockets don't play much defense as it is, much less on tired legs.
Good stuff. I guess I didn't look at this game closely enough. Nuggets were -1.5 earlier this morning.
Early sharps hammered that shit lol, it opened at -1.
I stayed up until 2 AM waiting for that line to drop, got tired, fell asleep, then woke up to the current line. I saw -2 at books that I dont have and was waiting to hit that. Truth be told, I kinda dont even think itll matter, Nuggets might just spank the Rockets tonight
^^^^Guys I like the theory but seems like Houston is the kind of team that can score on anyone, on any night, back to back or end of a road trip or not. (Tiny sample size but they are 2-0 on the second half of back to backs). BUT...they play no defense even when they AREN'T tired. And you can bet what little energy they do have tonight will (as usual) go toward the offensive end of the floor. So what about:
Denver team total o111? Denver averages 109.1 ppg at home as it is, and Houston averages giving up 107.4. Given everything that's been brought up, it might make more sense to play Denver's team total over 111 imo. That way even if Houston happens to be hot or Harden has one of those insane 40-15-10 type nights, the bet can still cash if it's a shootout.
Hmm. Good point, I rarely play totals but this might be the way to go.
Knicks +2 now. Fuck I should have waited.
Totals always scare me or else I'd be on board. I really think if Denver goes over the total then they will cover this game. But I had an idea, I don't think T Wolves lose by a big margin today and even though I think teasers are chump plays in the NBA, I'm thinking of teasing Wolves up to +7 and Denver to +1.5 at -110 odds.
Edit didn't realize the Wolves line jumped so much. Neeeeeeevermind
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