Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2017

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McGloin was airing it out today. Hes not very good but hes not a check down charlie

Will be different next week imo in the playoffs. I know Oakland had something to play for today, but I think they were more willing to let him hang it out there a bit knowing they were in the playoffs anyway. They wanted to see what they had since he hadn't played in so long. Of course this is all if he can even play. He looked like his neck/shoulder was pretty bad. Plus even if he plays and they somehow allow him to try to throw it downfield more than I think they will, like you said he's not very good so odds are it won't matter. I will be surprised if either team gets to 20 in this game, and absolutely flat out stunned if both do. First to 17 wins imo.
 
I'm gonna wait. I hope I'm not wrong, but I don't see it dipping below 7. I might end up +7 and having to pay -110 or something, but unless I'm reading this wrong I don't think it goes to 6.5. Hopefully some Seattle $ comes in at some point this week and we get +7.5 at -115 or better. That's my hope.

It won't be as big a play either way as the u37 on that Oak/Hou game. I know you don't like betting totals, but seriously how do either or those teams move the ball with any consistency in that game? I could honestly see a defensive TD scored and the bet STILL easily covering.
I just dont really know how to cap it. Like yeah obviously I think its gonna be a defensive grind but idk. Let's talk this out. Total is 37 and the spread is +/- 3 points. That implies the score set would be 20-17. Is that really that inconceivable? (im really asking lol)

According to footballoutsiders, prior to week 17 at least, the Raiders were 22nd in total defense (23 and 21 against pass and run, respectively). The Texans were 11th (9 and 17 respectively). Brock put up 20 on the Raiders defense in that game in Mexico City so there's that too. Idk, let me sleep on it haha
 
I just dont really know how to cap it. Like yeah obviously I think its gonna be a defensive grind but idk. Let's talk this out. Total is 37 and the spread is +/- 3 points. That implies the score set would be 20-17. Is that really that inconceivable? (im really asking lol)

According to footballoutsiders, prior to week 17 at least, the Raiders were 22nd in total defense (23 and 21 against pass and run, respectively). The Texans were 11th (9 and 17 respectively). Brock put up 20 on the Raiders defense in that game in Mexico City so there's that too. Idk, let me sleep on it haha

20-17 isn't "inconceivable" to me, no. But it's basically at the highest end of how I see the game potentially playing out. Historically, coaches with teams in the playoffs that are working with below average QB's tend to get EXTREMELY conservative until they absolutely have no choice but to open it up. But in this case, it's just impossible to envision one team jumping out to a huge lead to where the other team needs to try to chuck the ball around.

Since Carr went down, the Raiders have 6 pts total in 5 quarters of football. The last 6 weeks the Texans pt totals have been: 17, 12, 21, 22, 13, 13. Averaging 16.3 ppg. And again, given that O'brien understands that his defense is going to most likely keep them in the game just fine vs whoever is at QB for Oakland, expect him to be happy running the ball and not taking chances.
 
20-17 isn't "inconceivable" to me, no. But it's basically at the highest end of how I see the game potentially playing out. Historically, coaches with teams in the playoffs that are working with below average QB's tend to get EXTREMELY conservative until they absolutely have no choice but to open it up. But in this case, it's just impossible to envision one team jumping out to a huge lead to where the other team needs to try to chuck the ball around.

Since Carr went down, the Raiders have 6 pts total in 5 quarters of football. The last 6 weeks the Texans pt totals have been: 17, 12, 21, 22, 13, 13. Averaging 16.3 ppg. And again, given that O'brien understands that his defense is going to most likely keep them in the game just fine vs whoever is at QB for Oakland, expect him to be happy running the ball and not taking chances.
Yea I mean I agree with the notion that O'Brien isnt gonna take chances and let his defense essentially win him the game. Why not just take one team TT under then? Id assume you'd take the Raiders u17 since the Raiders defense isnt rated very highly plus all the struggles of the qb position. Cook turned the ball over a few times today too btw (turnovers = short field = easy points)

just playing devil's advocate
 
College Football Monday

Might not be able to get on the computer to post but there's only one bowl game that I have a semi strong lean on tomorrow. Gonna put 2u down on USC -7
 
College Football Monday

Might not be able to get on the computer to post but there's only one bowl game that I have a semi strong lean on tomorrow. Gonna put 2u down on USC -7

Yep I'm gonna play that too. Was leaning that way and if you are on it I like it even more.

I'm also gonna go against my Badgers and play W Mich +7.5 and their ML. After Badger meltdown in the Big 10 championship not sure how motivated they will be. W Mich plays in the Mac but were undefeated and you know they are gonna want to prove they are legit to a national audience.
 
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Yea I mean I agree with the notion that O'Brien isnt gonna take chances and let his defense essentially win him the game. Why not just take one team TT under then? Id assume you'd take the Raiders u17 since the Raiders defense isnt rated very highly plus all the struggles of the qb position. Cook turned the ball over a few times today too btw (turnovers = short field = easy points)

just playing devil's advocate

May play that too. But again I think Del Rio was trying to see what he had a little bit.

I jumped on the u37 because I think it could drop to 35.5 or even 35. If it does we'll have tt's of like 19 and 16 and of course that 16 looks WAY worse than 17. So I will be watching for tt's to open for sure.
 
@mkess101 btw I don't think Seattle is gonna do shit in the playoffs. I know we had that discussion a few weeks ago. Prob gonna bet on the Lions if I get a good line. But man, Atlantas offense is scary

yes you are finally conceding haha
 
lines next week are hiiiiigh. at first glance liking giants +4 and detroit +8
 
afternoon delight action
$26/$51
western michigan +10.5 -140
usc -7 -135
 
lines next week are hiiiiigh. at first glance liking giants +4 and detroit +8

Yeah I hit Det +8. Don't love paying the juice at -120 but it was -125 with a 7.5 spread yesterday at opens so this is much better.

Giants/Packers, man IDK. I'm so emotionally invested in Packers I should probably just leave the game alone. On the one hand, I know them better by far than any other NFL team. On the other hand, it's hard for me to be 100% objective. The way I see the game:

Giants D is playing brilliantly. Their secondary has improved from being below average, but really their strength is their pass rush. Specifically Olivier Vernon. JPP was playing really well until he got hurt too (even being short a few fingers). But now he's hurt. BUT...the Packers pass protect better than anyone in the league. As was pointed out during last night's game, 3 of their 5 starting lineman are ranked NUMBER ONE in the league by PFF at their respective position in terms of how they grade out in pass protection. That is just insane. Combine that with Rodgers ability to be ninja and buy time, and I think the Giants pass rush gets negated mostly. Will they probably get to Rodgers 2-3 times? Yeah, probably. But the # of times he'll break contain and make them pay with big plays is probably more than that the way he is playing. They've won 6 in a row, He's thrown 15 TD's and ZERO interceptions during that streak. You really want to bet against this guy only getting 4 pts, and he's playing at home? And all of a sudden the Packers have a LOT of weapons on that side of the ball. Montgomery is shifty after switching to RB from WR, and gives them tons of flexibility to motion him out wide from the backfield where he gets juicy matchups against linebackers and safeties. Geronimo Allen all of a sudden is a threat. Jared Cook is healthy and producing. Randall Cobb should be back and close to 100%. Then obviously Jordy Nelson and Devonte Adams on the outside. That's a hell of a lot of matchup issues to deal with.

On the other side of the ball, the Packer secondary is in shambles due to injury. The Giants are going to need Beckham and more specifically Shepard and Cruz to win their matchups convincingly. And they definitely can. Obviously Beckham will draw a lot of attention, and Dom Capers probably will play a lot of cover 2 to keep everything (meaning Beckham) in front of them. Make Eli check down, come up and make the tackle. The Giants O line is bad. Maybe not the worst in the league, but bad. Green Bay's front 4 should be able to shut down the run pretty effectively against them, and also get some pressure in the passing game without having to blitz too much. That means the linebackers can get some depth on their drops which will take away a lot of the crossing routes and shorter passes that Eli will have to take assuming the Packers do play a lot of cover 2.

That's a long ass B/D I know. But in the end (again, being as objective as possible for me) no way am I betting against Rodgers at Lambeau right now only getting 4 pts. I can see taking a pass on the game altogether, but not a bet on the Giants.
 
Giants are going to shit on the Packers chest

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Ok I am on it. USC -7.5 for 2u.

Any NBA or NHL plays for tonight?
 
Suns +5.5 (or +195 ML) at Clippers? Suns suck on the road, but Paul is doubtful tonight.

Thoughts NBA guys?
 
any nba plays tonight? thinking about the thunder as dogs.
 
Okay I'm taking my daughter to Rogue One now. Man I hope it's suitable for a 7 year old...but my wife is okay with it so whatever.

Need some good stuff for when I get back this afternoon. I bet against my Badgers today, just have a feeling that game will be close. Not even gonna watch it.

On a serious heater overall lately, gotta keep it rolling. Let's see some good plays guys. Post 'em up!
 
I think I like the Bucks at home against the Thunder today. Not confirming the bet yet, I can see the line dropping

If no one from the Cavs is sitting out, -9 seems nice

I'd stay away from betting the Suns. Clippers are the play, even at -5.5 or whatever it is. Just gonna wait until Paul is definitely ruled out before making a play, maybe the line drops to -3

Bulls/Hornets was a pick em last night but Bulls are now -2. I dont see why. That team isn't very good but they might be desperate for a win at home

Wizards might be a play if Beal is a go. I think this is too many points to lay for the Rockets against a decent team
 
Western Michigan w the cover on a lucky 4th down td I'll take it let's goo USC
 
I think I like the Bucks at home against the Thunder today. Not confirming the bet yet, I can see the line dropping

If no one from the Cavs is sitting out, -9 seems nice

I'd stay away from betting the Suns. Clippers are the play, even at -5.5 or whatever it is. Just gonna wait until Paul is definitely ruled out before making a play, maybe the line drops to -3

Bulls/Hornets was a pick em last night but Bulls are now -2. I dont see why. That team isn't very good but they might be desperate for a win at home

Wizards might be a play if Beal is a go. I think this is too many points to lay for the Rockets against a decent team

Man I can't bet on Clippers minus Paul and Griffin laying pts. Pass for me. At 5.5 I'd take the Suns if I had to bet a side, but will just pass.

Bucks...maybe. -1.5 is fine I guess. Maybe gets to a pick 'em where a Buck one point win covers.

Cavs sound good too, maybe they even cover 9.5 with no Kyrie (if he's out). I'm thinking that might move the line 1 pt one way or the other depending if he's in or not.

Wizards...IDK. Houston is good at home and Wash awful on the road. 8.5 is a pretty big #, but so many possessions in Rockets games it doesn't mean as much as with other teams. The Wizards are playing better lately for sure. Undecided on that one.
 
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