Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2017

[EzFlyer]

Fade away boys. Wawrinka (+130) $30.77 to win $40.

Having an absolutely horrible AO. Konta serving up 3-2 in the 2nd set made me sick. She also had a second break chance up 3-1. Serena was ripe for the upset last night.

yea konta buckled under the pressure a bit, maybe.

you're not crazy to bet wawr, but it's still in no-bet territory for me. i need fed closer to evens, i need war closer to +150 or higher

 

[timmyclax22]

yea konta buckled under the pressure a bit, maybe.

you're not crazy to bet wawr, but it's still in no-bet territory for me. i need fed closer to evens, i need war closer to +150 or higher

Maybe you'll think I'm crazy when I take Dimitrov tomorrow! Hottest guy on tour and he'll probably lose in straights when I'm on him.

Also heard Raonic was being a bit of a baby and had a bunch of mental breakdowns vs Nadal but I didn't see a second of the match.

 

[EzFlyer]

Maybe you'll think I'm crazy when I take Dimitrov tomorrow! Hottest guy on tour and he'll probably lose in straights when I'm on him.

Also heard Raonic was being a bit of a baby and had a bunch of mental breakdowns vs Nadal but I didn't see a second of the match.

dude not at all. i absolutely am taking dimitrov. in fact i'm taking him for a couple units at +200 momentarily. or a unit straight and 1.5 to 2u on his spread. something like that.

yes, nadal is typically great against right handed 1-hand backhands, because he wears them out w/his high bounce etc.. but dimi absolutely SMOKED nadal last year in china.. 2 & 4 -- and like you said, he's the hottest guy on tour atm. he just bludgeoned goffin.

like you, i didn't see a second of raonic-nadal. it's tough w/the aussie, man.. timezones..

but yea. i'm w/you. 100%. dimitrov. i'll finalize plays by tomorrow but expecting to do 1u straight +200ish and 2u spread, pretty sure.

 

[EzFlyer]

^^ follow-up. i did 1u on dimitrov +200 ML on 5d.

i'm waiting till +1.5 sets etc is an option before i just take +4 games. (basically, as a rule in 5 setters, if i'm getting +3 or +4 games, i'd rather just do +1.5 sets, because it's super hard to cover 3 or 4 games if you lose 3-1, anyway.. unless it's like isner vs raonic where it'll be 7-6 7-6 6-7 7-6 lol)

 

[EzFlyer]

gimme the ducks at -129 tonight at home vs edmonton. this should be -160ish imo. just 1.29u, tho. guessing it's cause gibson is out, but i'm fine w/it.

 

[EzFlyer]

dude not at all. i absolutely am taking dimitrov. in fact i'm taking him for a couple units at +200 momentarily. or a unit straight and 1.5 to 2u on his spread. something like that.

yes, nadal is typically great against right handed 1-hand backhands, because he wears them out w/his high bounce etc.. but dimi absolutely SMOKED nadal last year in china.. 2 & 4 -- and like you said, he's the hottest guy on tour atm. he just bludgeoned goffin.

like you, i didn't see a second of raonic-nadal. it's tough w/the aussie, man.. timezones..

but yea. i'm w/you. 100%. dimitrov. i'll finalize plays by tomorrow but expecting to do 1u straight +200ish and 2u spread, pretty sure.

^^ follow-up. i did 1u on dimitrov +200 ML on 5d.

i'm waiting till +1.5 sets etc is an option before i just take +4 games. (basically, as a rule in 5 setters, if i'm getting +3 or +4 games, i'd rather just do +1.5 sets, because it's super hard to cover 3 or 4 games if you lose 3-1, anyway.. unless it's like isner vs raonic where it'll be 7-6 7-6 6-7 7-6 lol)

i'm in. 4u

1u dimi +200 ML
2u dimi +1.5 sets +108

and 1u dimi to win the aussie +700

 

[piglord]

thinking about playing the knicks tonight as road dogs in a game of bad versus worse.

 

[PuertoRican]

My pre-preliminary event picks for the Miss Universe 2016 pageant (these picks and notes will get hidden in a spoiler after the preliminary event is over, which is when I'll finalize my Top 15 picks:


Preliminary competition: January 26 @ 3am PST / 6am EST

Final competition: January 29 @ 7pm PST / 7pm EST (tape delay on the West Coast)

Betting: Bookmaker had various types of live betting available last year, so keep checking during each round.

My Miss Universe 2015 results: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/o...ost-your-bets.3127337/page-131#post-111854023

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Quick notes:

- Brunettes have won the Miss Universe pageant the last 11 years in a row.

- Miss Philippines has made it into the top-5 in the last 5 out of 6 years.

- Miss Philippines won Miss Universe in 2015.

- T5 = Top-5 in alphabetical order.

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T5: Costa Rica
T5: Mexico
T5: Panama
T5: Philippines
T5: Venezuela
On the bubble of Top 5: Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Indonesia, Kosovo, Panama


Barbados: The first title holder of Barbados in over nine years. Great smile, looks American but has a tiny bit of an island accent that she can turn up or down depending on if she thinks it will impress people (Americans are easily impressed by accents). She beat a bunch of black women to win the title of Mss Barbados. Top 15.

Brazil: She is sexy, has wild hair, and a good body. Brazil held the Winter Olympics recently, so she might get love for that. She has wild hair, a great body, and a large smile that will get her into the Top 15, but I think her sexy and seductive look is akin to the chick who you want to have wild times with but not take her home to meet your parents so you can marry her.

Cayman Islands: Speaks well, beautiful smile and teeth, and not too dark. Good enough for Top 15, but not good enough for Top 5 due to her not being petite enough and black girls generally have the odds stacked against them.

Colombia: She works with little kids and kids with special needs. Family first.

Costa Rica: Top 5. Good look, good body, nature lover and protector, and helps her community and country instead of a single charity (most contestants work with a single charity that helps kids, elderly people, and sickly people).

Ecuador: She is an Agribusiness Engineer and graduated from the “most difficult university in Latin America.” She is super charitable, young, looks cute when just staring with a basic look, but her smile lights up the room. She works in a male-dominated field. Top 10.

Haiti: Haiti has suffered a lot over the past years with earthquakes, and most recently Hurricane Matthew – sympathy from judges and a sense of overcoming obstacles. Skin tone isn’t too dark, speaks well, works with kids, and wants to help her country overcome the struggles they’ve had. Top 15.

Indonesia: Top 15, fringe Top 5, possibly a sleeper pick. Tall, good smile, and has a degree in Informatics Engineering (she does PHP coding and made an Indonesian tourism and culture app).

Japan: Top 15.

Kosovo: The first woman not originally from Kosovo to win the Miss Kosovo Pageant – she’s originally from Argentina. She looked like a basic Latina in her pre-event interview, but all of her recent pictures during this past week have been stunning, even when she’s just taking selfies. Top 15 for sure, fringe Top 5.

Malaysia: Top 15. She has Indian ancestry and crushes Miss India.

Mexico: Top 5 for sure.

Myanmar: Top 15.

Nicaragua: Fringe Top 5. She speaks English with no Spanish accent, but is able to speak her dialect of Spanish perfectly. She was a legit amateur soccer player when she was younger. She looks white, but is Latin, which is a plus.

Panama: Top 15, fringe top 5.

Peru: Top 15. She looked basic in her pre-event interview, but looks better in recent pictures. I think all of these chicks begin cutting weight once their airplane lands, kind of like MMA fighters.

Philippines: Top 5. Miss Philippines has made it into the Top 5 in the last 5 out of 6 years, and Miss Philippines 2015 is the current title holder.

Puerto Rico: Top 15, but not Top 5. She has the look that many men found exotic and sexy during the 1980s amongst Latin women. She doesn’t have the “it” factor that past Miss Puerto women have had when they won Miss Universe.

Spain: Top 15. Tall, light skin, and doesn’t look Latin.

Thailand: Great skin color, reminiscent of Tia Carrere in the 1990s, which is one of the two looks that the Western world gravitates to for Asians. Great smile and good seductive look.

Turkey: Something about her screams Top 15, but not Top 5.

Uruguay: Potential Top 15, but her young face and thin body will keep her out of the Top 5. If she competed in this event when she was 22-25, instead of 19-years-old, she would’ve had a much better chance at winning once her body filled out a bit more.

USA: Deshauna Barber is the first woman actively serving in the US Army Reserve to win the title of Miss USA. Deshauna has been spending her year as Miss USA working directly with soldiers suffering from PTSD and focusing on suicide prevention in the Armed Forces. She beat a FINE woman to win the title of Miss USA. Her mom died shortly after she won the title, and she has the military thing going for her. Good smile, dark skinned black girl, nice teeth. She is Top 10 due to her background. Could be a sleeper pick.

Venezuela: She’s the best looking blonde, yet she is Latina.

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Bookmaker Lines: opening lines on the left side, current lines on the right side (as of January 25, 2017)

Belgium +1200 | +1235

Bolivia +1200 | +1240

Brazil +900 | +915

Colombia +230 | +230

Costa Rica +1700 | +1760

Ecuador +3000 | +3165

France +1450 | +1490

Indonesia +2500 | +2620

Mexico +700 | +710

Netherlands +1000 | +1020

Nicaragua +2000 | +1530 (biggest line movement)

Panama +1500 | +1550

Peru +1200 | +1235

Philippines +1800 | +1860

Puerto Rico +1300 | +1315

Thailand +2500 | +2615

Turkey +1800 | +1860

Venezuela +1000 | +1020

Field (any other contestant) +900 | +785 (second biggest line movement)

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Other Thoughts

- I originally liked Miss Dominican Republic, but she is 6’2, has a long neck, and she has braces on the bottom half of her teeth that she hides when she does her modeling smile. She is pretty, but I don’t think she’ll win. If she was 5’10 and didn’t have braces on her bottom grill, I think she’d be in the Top 5. If she makes it in the Top 15, bet her line to be in the Top 5; Bookmaker will offer this prop.

- Miss Australia is super cute and could easily get into the Top 15, but she looks like a little girl and won’t be taken seriously enough to win the title.

- Miss Nigeria is the winner of the “Most Beautiful Girl in Nigeria 2015,” as well as Miss Nigeria 2016. She looks good, has a sexy body, is young, and smart, but she lacks the “it” factor.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Oh shit here we go with this again

 

[mkess101]

Paid the juice on Vandeweghe. I'm hardly a tennis expert but from what I see if she plays even relatively well on this surface she'll smoke Venus. EZ says she's ultra inconsistent which must be why she was unseeded. But she sure seems to be rolling right now.

Tailing EZ on Anaheim for 1.5u too.

 

[null]

Is Steve Harvey hosting again this year? I still recall dancing around and counting my money on Miss Colombia at more than +1400 in the final round until that bigoted bastard made the famous "oops" announcement and took that poor girl's crown right off her head and my money with it. Luckily I hedged with the actual winner Miss Philippines for a tiny profit, but that was a classic debacle.

 

[PuertoRican]

Is Steve Harvey hosting again this year? I still recall dancing around and counting my money on Miss Colombia at more than +1400 in the final round until that bigoted bastard made the famous "oops" announcement and took that poor girl's crown right off her head and my money with it. Luckily I hedged with the actual winner Miss Philippines for a tiny profit, but that was a classic debacle.

Yeah, Steve Harvey will be hosting again, but they gave him a co-host to make him seem less cheesy -- her name is Ashley Graham: http://www.missuniverse.com/competition#event.hosts

Steve has a multi-year contract with Miss Universe, so he'll be around for a bit.

 

[null]

Crimony, co-host Ashley Graham is one of those obnoxious "Plus Size" models the industry is inflicting on us in a thinly veiled attempt to attract the huge overweight and obese demographic which makes up a large part of society nowadays. Here she is looking like a hippo and defiling the annual Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue. They may pander to the SJW's with Graham as a host but I guarantee none of the Miss Universe contestants will look like this.

 

[mkess101]

Coco squeaks out the first set in a tiebreak. Whew.

 

[timmyclax22]

^^ follow-up. i did 1u on dimitrov +200 ML on 5d.

i'm waiting till +1.5 sets etc is an option before i just take +4 games. (basically, as a rule in 5 setters, if i'm getting +3 or +4 games, i'd rather just do +1.5 sets, because it's super hard to cover 3 or 4 games if you lose 3-1, anyway.. unless it's like isner vs raonic where it'll be 7-6 7-6 6-7 7-6 lol)

So you're saying you think the +1.5 sets has better chances to hit in 5 setters than +3 or 4 games? Wouldn't you think the games would give you a higher chance since you could still lose 3-1 and cover, however unlikely?

i'm in. 4u

1u dimi +200 ML
2u dimi +1.5 sets +108

and 1u dimi to win the aussie +700

I like the odds at 7-1 to win especially based on the odds that they have for projected matchups. Doesn't make sense to me to be quite honest.

I did 1u total so far. About .5u on each.

+205 against Nadal to win 1u
+700 to win AO to win 3.5u

Hate that the matches are on at 330! Good luck to us!

 

[timmyclax22]

Haven't done this in a while so I'll probably regret it but can't resist at the odds. Added to Wawrinka.

+165 $12.12 to win $20.

$42.89 to win $60 total. (+140)

 

[iGnP]

Haven't done this in a while so I'll probably regret it but can't resist at the odds. Added to Wawrinka.

+165 $12.12 to win $20.

$42.89 to win $60 total. (+140)

Where is that line? I could swear I saw it at +140 not too long ago

 

[Sham5916910]

Crimony, co-host Ashley Graham is one of those obnoxious "Plus Size" models the industry is inflicting on us in a thinly veiled attempt to attract the huge overweight and obese demographic which makes up a large part of society nowadays. Here she is looking like a hippo and defiling the annual Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue. They may pander to the SJW's with Graham as a host but I guarantee none of the Miss Universe contestants will look like this.

I'd ram the shit out of it.

But anyhow i remember this last year even tho i didnt bet. so i will tail someone in here for some action!

 

[timmyclax22]

Where is that line? I could swear I saw it at +140 not too long ago

5d late last night. doesn't matter much as he choked in the 5th.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Is Steve Harvey hosting again this year? I still recall dancing around and counting my money on Miss Colombia at more than +1400 in the final round until that bigoted bastard made the famous "oops" announcement and took that poor girl's crown right off her head and my money with it. Luckily I hedged with the actual winner Miss Philippines for a tiny profit, but that was a classic debacle.

Yeah I remember showing up at work the next day talking about this and everyone looked at me like "who the fuck is this niqqa discussing pageants".... lolz good times