Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - June 2016

[iGnP]

Starters done. @mkess101 i blame you for jinxing Thompson getting in foul trouble

 

[mkess101]

Starters done. @mkess101 i blame you for jinxing Thompson getting in foul trouble

Yep that one's on me. On the plus side your series bet looks mighty safe. Cleveland look like frontrunners that are fine toying with teams in the East but once they face adversity against a team with as much talent as they have they just fold.

 

[iGnP]

Yep that one's on me. On the plus side your series bet looks mighty safe. Cleveland look like frontrunners that are fine toying with teams in the East but once they face adversity against a team with as much talent as they have they just fold.

I was actually supremely confident in the Warriors when I saw the series line first posted for the series. This might sound dumb but I felt like it was just begging for money to be bet on the Cavs. But yeah, it's nice to not have to sweat (at least no sweating right now). I am very curious to see game 3's line. I wouldn't be surprised if GS is a favorite bc this Cle team looks like they've quit already lol

They'll prob win one game in Cle and GS will close out in front of their fans in game 5 (they closed out in Cleveland last season in game 6)

 

[mkess101]

I was actually supremely confident in the Warriors when I saw the series line first posted for the series. This might sound dumb but I felt like it was just begging for money to be bet on the Cavs. But yeah, it's nice to not have to sweat (at least no sweating right now). I am very curious to see game 3's line. I wouldn't be surprised if GS is a favorite bc this Cle team looks like they've quit already lol

They'll prob win one game in Cle and GS will close out in front of their fans in game 5 (they closed out in Cleveland last season in game 6)

Cavs -1 game 3, already up. Will not touch that line. I agree on the series too. Dubs in 5 sounds really likely. Will see what 5d puts that at once they update their lines for those props.

 

[iGnP]

Cavs -1 game 3, already up. Will not touch that line. I agree on the series too. Dubs in 5 sounds really likely. Will see what 5d puts that at once they update their lines for those props.

I think game 3 is the one that we shouldn't touch. k love might not play and we really dont know how Frye's presence will affect everything (prob wont bc he's a worse version of love in a lot of ways). props are always fun to bet so ill just keep looking for those

 

[Capn Morgan]

@EzFlyer you like poposil or seppi on Tuesday at -115,-110 ? Def leaning towards both

 

[EzFlyer]

@EzFlyer you like poposil or seppi on Tuesday at -115,-110 ? Def leaning towards both

I lean both near evens, but I don't bet outside of majors or 1000's (besides finals and Olympics)

Faster surface should benefit the popsicle but I don't remember his h2h with garcia lopez... and mannarino is a pain in the ass I hate betting against sometimes.. dude is just a shot maker. But I would definitely take seppi near evens if I was betting it. Just so much more consistent. Better defensively, covers more area.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Copa America:

I know little of soccer but I think Bolivia at +333 against Panama is off.

Also throwing a few bucks on Argentina (+125) against Chile.

 

[Capn Morgan]

I lean both near evens, but I don't bet outside of majors or 1000's (besides finals and Olympics)

Faster surface should benefit the popsicle but I don't remember his h2h with garcia lopez... and mannarino is a pain in the ass I hate betting against sometimes.. dude is just a shot maker. But I would definitely take seppi near evens if I was betting it. Just so much more consistent. Better defensively, covers more area.

Ahh fair enough I should probably take the same approach only playing majors given my recent results! G Lopez beat him pretty handily at the Australian open just really think the faster surface will benefit him as you said

 

[iGnP]

Not tail worthy but I think I like the Blue Jays today at this price

 

[edole]

cavs tomorrow right?

 

[iGnP]

Not tail worthy but I think I like the Blue Jays today at this price

thank goodness i said not tail worthy. fell for that trap hard lol

 

[mkess101]

thank goodness i said not tail worthy. fell for that trap hard lol

Bah I'd have tried to warn you off that one one had I seen it. That Fulmer kid has been lights out for Detroit lately. I passed but kicking myself for not backing him.

 

[iGnP]

Bah I'd have tried to warn you off that one one had I seen it. That Fulmer kid has been lights out for Detroit lately. I passed but kicking myself for not backing him.

Oh I know he was decent but the price was way too high too. Guess it was high for a reason haha

 

[iGnP]

a little pricey but im on the Orioles today

 

[iGnP]

@mkess101

want your thoughts on the Orioles game (already bet it, though. oops), Angels @ Yankees, and the most intriguing game, Rockies @ Dodgers w/ the struggling 19 yo Urias as a -185 favorite (trap, right?)

 

[mkess101]

@mkess101

want your thoughts on the Orioles game (already bet it, though. oops), Angels @ Yankees, and the most intriguing game, Rockies @ Dodgers w/ the struggling 19 yo Urias as a -185 favorite (trap, right?)

Royals at Orioles

Playing KC +120 and KC team total over 4 at -130. Basically just fading Ubaldo Jimenez, who's been terrible lately. Ventura has been nothing special for the Royals either but at dog odds worth a play imo. KC should absolutely score 4 or more the way Jimenez has been pitching.

Like the Angels as dogs too at +141. Pineda has been roughed up badly in 3 of his last 5 starts and even though Huff is a callup from the minors at least he's a lefty which either neutralizes to a degree or possibly sends to the bench some of the Yankees better hitters in Ellsbury, Gardner, and Mcann who are all lefties. Esp at Yankee stadium with the short right field porch that's a big thing. Think the Angels can take this one at nice odds.

Dodgers/Rockies could be a trap. Man the kid has really struggled badly but does have electric stuff. Butler for Colorado hasn't been good either. Honestly I'm just gonna play the o8 here. Odds are both these guys don't get it figured out on the same night and at least one of them (maybe both) blows up again and gives up a bunch of runs.

Edit: Couple things. First, I just noticed you actually bet ON Baltimore. I don't like the play myself, but BOL. You could pay a little juice and pseudo hedge with the KC team total over 4 at -135. Ubaldo has given up less than 4 ER only once in his last 5 starts LOL. (That's just him, not even counting what the bullpen gave up after he left).

Also, looks like Mcann and Ellsbury indeed out of the Yanks lineup tonight. I like the Angels even more now.

 

[iGnP]

Royals at Orioles

Playing KC +120 and KC team total over 4 at -130. Basically just fading Ubaldo Jimenez, who's been terrible lately. Ventura has been nothing special for the Royals either but at dog odds worth a play imo. KC should absolutely score 4 or more the way Jimenez has been pitching.

Like the Angels as dogs too at +141. Pineda has been roughed up badly in 3 of his last 5 starts and even though Huff is a callup from the minors at least he's a lefty which either neutralizes to a degree or possibly sends to the bench some of the Yankees better hitters in Ellsbury, Gardner, and Mcann who are all lefties. Esp at Yankee stadium with the short right field porch that's a big thing. Think the Angels can take this one at nice odds.

Dodgers/Rockies could be a trap. Man the kid has really struggled badly but does have electric stuff. Butler for Colorado hasn't been good either. Honestly I'm just gonna play the o8 here. Odds are both these guys don't get it figured out on the same night and at least one of them (maybe both) blows up again and gives up a bunch of runs.

Edit: Couple things. First, I just noticed you actually bet ON Baltimore. I don't like the play myself, but BOL. You could pay a little juice and pseudo hedge with the KC team total over 4 at -135. Ubaldo has given up less than 4 ER only once in his last 5 starts LOL. (That's just him, not even counting what the bullpen gave up after he left).

Also, looks like Mcann and Ellsbury indeed out of the Yanks lineup tonight. I like the Angels even more now.

Jimenez has an xfip that is nearly 2 points better than his ERA so he's probably gonna pitch better going forward while that normalizes. That's not really saying much because he can't sustain such awful pitching but a lot of that has to do w the defense and some bad luck (very high babip). Look at the line up the Royals have out there, I don't even recognize most of those names

Regarding the Yankees, same sorta thing w Pineda. High ERA but much lower xfip and high babip. He's not pitching as badly as his numbers indicate

Edit what I think I'm gonna do instead of betting the Yankees is bet the u4.5 for the Angels TT. I'm basically playing the point made of Pinedas struggles being a bit overblown bc I do worry about their offense a bit, even if it's against a newbie. Yanks also have one of the best bullpens

 

[mkess101]

Jimenez has an xfip that is nearly 2 points better than his ERA so he's probably gonna pitch better going forward while that normalizes. That's not really saying much because he can't sustain such awful pitching but a lot of that has to do w the defense and some bad luck (very high babip). Look at the line up the Royals have out there, I don't even recognize most of those names

Regarding the Yankees, same sorta thing w Pineda. High ERA but much lower xfip and high babip. He's not pitching as badly as his numbers indicate

I'm not familiar with xfip, but as far as babip goes it can be as misleading a stat as ERA. Have you watched Ubaldo pitch this year? I have, and I can sum up the reason for his high babip this way: 2-0 and 3-1 counts. He is CONSTANTLY pitching from behind in the count. He's walking a ridiculously high 5 guys per 9 IP, and when he's not walking them he's pitching from behind where of course balls put in play are going to be hit harder and result in a higer babip. The Royals lineup has a some backups granted, but Escobar, Cain, Hosmer, Perez, Morales, and Orlando are all regular starters for them. Other than Orlando they were all starters on the WS teams the last couple years.

Pineda I'll buy a bit more that his stats are misleading. I've watched 2 games he's pitched. One he looked good, the other he got knocked around for the same reason as Ubaldo (too many times pitching behind in the count). Pineda has good stuff and strikes out a lot of guys but he tries to be too fine early in counts imo. It leads to him falling behind and having guys sit on (and hit hard) his fastball.

 

[iGnP]

I'm not familiar with xfip, but as far as babip goes it can be as misleading a stat as ERA. Have you watched Ubaldo pitch this year? I have, and I can sum up the reason for his high babip this way: 2-0 and 3-1 counts. He is CONSTANTLY pitching from behind in the count. He's walking a ridiculously high 5 guys per 9 IP, and when he's not walking them he's pitching from behind where of course balls put in play are going to be hit harder and result in a higer babip. The Royals lineup has a some backups granted, but Escobar, Cain, Hosmer, Perez, Morales, and Orlando are all regular starters for them. Other than Orlando they were all starters on the WS teams the last couple years.

Pineda I'll buy a bit more that his stats are misleading. I've watched 2 games he's pitched. One he looked good, the other he got knocked around for the same reason as Ubaldo (too many times pitching behind in the count). Pineda has good stuff and strikes out a lot of guys but he tries to be too fine early in counts imo. It leads to him falling behind and having guys sit on (and hit hard) his fastball.

Interesting take, thanks for the input. I edited my last point to say I'm taking the u 4.5 for angels TT in case you didn't notice. I'll maybe look to hedge if the Orioles take a lead. Good luck on your plays man