Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March 2016

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Here is what I have for tonight so far...

CBB

Virginia Tech
+3.5 3.15u/3u
Miami FL
+2.5 3.06/3u
Seton Hall
+4.5 3.06/3u
UCLA
+3 3.24u/3u

NBA

Wolves
+3.5 3.21/3u
Couple adds

NBA

Celtics -6 3.15u/3u

CBB

Nevada +11 3.15u/3u
 
Celtics doing work!

regarding the clippers/thunder: an owner of the Thunder passed away today in a car crash. unfortunate event. i feel like teams get up for games like this so im a little less confident in the clippers because of this. one silver lining is the thunder play the warriors tomorrow in a game im SURE they want to win after Saturday's epic game. could be a look ahead game today against a clipper team that they have more talent than. good luck if you decide to play it, im gonna only play clippers for half a unit now
 
Shanghai Major/Shitshow for today:

OG vs Secret
I get that OG is the popular play and I don't fault anyone for it but I'm gonna livebet this and pass pre game. Having a weird feeling and I looked at Secrets game history and it's not as bad as I thought. OG probably wins, but meh. Watch out for Puppy Enigma or Chen.


EG vs Fnatic
EG should win and I even think they might have value, but I'm not betting -500. Midone for Fnatic looked impressive thought, probably best to livebet and hope that Fnatic gets decent starts so that we can get some value on EG. They might give up a game but if they have to win a teamfight they'll win the teamfight even if they're behind for the most part.

A vs Ehome
Bo1 and Alliance seems to bet ~-150 or so, in a bo3 I'd be all over A but in a bo1 I'm passing and waiting for the draft.

Col vs LGD
Couldn't help myself but bet coL at a dog price of +150. I'd bet bigger, but this price might get better (so don't go bet heavy on them for the next few hours, with any luck a bunch of causal fans goes "OMFG LGD BEST CHINA DOTO TEAM SUPER STRONG AGAINST RANDOM AMERICAN NOOBS!" and gives us +200 on col. Still a bo1 but it's clear that coL gives a shit, works hard and that LGD doesn't. I think we'll see an outdraft here, since LGD has been fairly predictable while coL has done some really smart drafts..

Gonna update with the rest of the loser's brackets games after OG vs Secret and EG vs Fnatic is done. I'm guessing it' Secret vs VP and Fnatic vs Newbee. Need to pay attention to what the teams looks like in their losses before I decide thought.
 
Couldn't resist Secret over OG at 3.0
 
For Dota 2:
Shanghai Major/Shitshow for today:

OG vs Secret
I get that OG is the popular play and I don't fault anyone for it but I'm gonna livebet this and pass pre game. Having a weird feeling and I looked at Secrets game history and it's not as bad as I thought. OG probably wins, but meh. Watch out for Puppy Enigma or Chen.


EG vs Fnatic
EG should win and I even think they might have value, but I'm not betting -500. Midone for Fnatic looked impressive thought, probably best to livebet and hope that Fnatic gets decent starts so that we can get some value on EG. They might give up a game but if they have to win a teamfight they'll win the teamfight even if they're behind for the most part.

A vs Ehome
Bo1 and Alliance seems to bet ~-150 or so, in a bo3 I'd be all over A but in a bo1 I'm passing and waiting for the draft.

Col vs LGD
Couldn't help myself but bet coL at a dog price of +150. I'd bet bigger, but this price might get better (so don't go bet heavy on them for the next few hours, with any luck a bunch of causal fans goes "OMFG LGD BEST CHINA DOTO TEAM SUPER STRONG AGAINST RANDOM AMERICAN NOOBS!" and gives us +200 on col. Still a bo1 but it's clear that coL gives a shit, works hard and that LGD doesn't. I think we'll see an outdraft here, since LGD has been fairly predictable while coL has done some really smart drafts..

Gonna update with the rest of the loser's brackets games after OG vs Secret and EG vs Fnatic is done. I'm guessing it' Secret vs VP and Fnatic vs Newbee. Need to pay attention to what the teams looks like in their losses before I decide thought.

Probably the day of the least value in my eyes. Missed getting Secret +1 1/2, that was the main play that I would have done. Grabbed Col due to fading LGD. Also liking MVP.P over Liquid, the way MVP is playing makes me think that the only teams that can really beat them at the moment are OG and EG.

Also would like Newbee over Fnatic and VP over Secret. VP could 100% be a dark horse in the tournament.
 
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Decided to livebet OG @-200 at 7.30 into the game. Their draft looks like it'll have a super strong mid game.

Edit: I'd be so pissed if I was Puppy or PLD. Supports tries to carry hard and EE and w33 feeds hard haha
 
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@iGnP

Great call on the Blazers so many games in X amount of nights angle. That's what put me over the top when I almost backed out of it. Blazers played a good first half but as predicted they fell off the cliff in the second half.
 
For Dota 2:


Probably the day of the least value in my eyes. Missed getting Secret +1 1/2, that was the main play that I would have done. Grabbed Col due to fading LGD. Also liking MVP.P over Liquid, the way MVP is playing makes me think that the only teams that can really beat them at the moment are OG and EG.

Also would like Newbee over Fnatic and VP over Secret. VP could 100% be a dark horse in the tournament.

Agree on the value part. I don't really like +1.5's as I wrote earlier. I agree on Col vs LGD but not on board with the Newbee idea. I wanted to shoot myself for betting them yesterday even if they won. I think VP could be a dark horse too, but maybe not this time. They've only looked good for a few games and after that it's been some kind of vodka-davai-cyka-gaming. If they get their shit together thought.
 
Think I'm gonna do a Real Madrid + Bayern parlay

Kinda worried about Madrid. Anyone have quick thoughts before 2? Lol
I had Real, Dortmund, Arsenal and Bayern parlay. Was abit worried about Madrid one aswell but yeah!
 
Bet OG at +520 for two units. Just before they fed 3 extra kills mid. Not happy with the price at all so I guess that's a fuck up. If they happen to get through the next 10 min without losing rax I think they have a chance, however.
 
Bet OG at +520 for two units. Just before they fed 3 extra kills mid. Not happy with the price at all so I guess that's a fuck up. If they happen to get through the next 10 min without losing rax I think they have a chance, however.

did the same just before they got team wiped =/ looks like we need a miracle lol
 
still some ways to go but impressive OG is still even in this game
 
Reminds me of some post, can't find the original so copy/pasting from reddit. Think it was moon who wrote about how OG worked last fall:

This is how our team enviroment is like. Bigdaddyn0tail is screaming in the mic:" BIGDADDY BIGDADDYYYYY BIG DOOOOODYYY YEEEAAAA IM" GOING INNNNN". I'm yelling "GET ON MY LEVEL HOE YEEE NEVA EVA NEVA EVA YOU CAN NEVA EVA GET ON MY LEVEL HOE" everytime I kill someone. Fly is spamming Alt Left-Click on his gold to count it every second, he's also spamming Alt Left-Click quickbuyu on Midas to remind us every second how close he is to buying Midas while me and n0tail are yelling at him stop counting your money jew and don't buy midas or we'll lose. Meanwhile cr1t's spamming "Good Game" on the chat wheel while typing "I am dead" every other second. Alas we have Miracle- aka "M-God" aka "8 0 0 0 M A T C H M A K I N G P O I N T S" playing anti-mage and I think he muted all of us. Now you might be thinking:"How the hell does a team function like that? Let alone win?!". Well that's because this is the environment Miracle- is used to playing in his 8000 Ranked MM games. He ends up playing anti-mage or SF and carries the game 1v9. We are simply re-creating the environment in which he excels: Miracle + four 4k mmr teammates

Edit: GG, oh well. Next game will be interesting.
 
damn valid effort from OG but that early lead was just to much to overcome
 
Reminds me of some post, can't find the original so copy/pasting from reddit. Think it was moon who wrote about how OG worked last fall:

This is how our team enviroment is like. Bigdaddyn0tail is screaming in the mic:" BIGDADDY BIGDADDYYYYY BIG DOOOOODYYY YEEEAAAA IM" GOING INNNNN". I'm yelling "GET ON MY LEVEL HOE YEEE NEVA EVA NEVA EVA YOU CAN NEVA EVA GET ON MY LEVEL HOE" everytime I kill someone. Fly is spamming Alt Left-Click on his gold to count it every second, he's also spamming Alt Left-Click quickbuyu on Midas to remind us every second how close he is to buying Midas while me and n0tail are yelling at him stop counting your money jew and don't buy midas or we'll lose. Meanwhile cr1t's spamming "Good Game" on the chat wheel while typing "I am dead" every other second. Alas we have Miracle- aka "M-God" aka "8 0 0 0 M A T C H M A K I N G P O I N T S" playing anti-mage and I think he muted all of us. Now you might be thinking:"How the hell does a team function like that? Let alone win?!". Well that's because this is the environment Miracle- is used to playing in his 8000 Ranked MM games. He ends up playing anti-mage or SF and carries the game 1v9. We are simply re-creating the environment in which he excels: Miracle + four 4k mmr teammates

Edit: GG, oh well. Next game will be interesting.

HAHA hillarious.. now i am going to picture this everytime i watch them fight :eek:
 
Took the over 40.5 kills this game.

Edit fuck my life and they drow again, should've waited but I figured there was no way that was a drow pick. This might not be a good bet.

Edit again: I don't get either of the last two picks, Drow I guess is mostly to buff up w33 so that he can just run people over but wtf is that terrorblade. Seems awful. Almost want to bet Secret but OG has to have a reason to pick Terrorblade over a carry that makes some kind of sense (Gyro, Jugg etc). Even something like an Anti-mage seems better here. I'm a bit lost here. Only think I can think of is that they want to splitpush a lot.
 
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So basically I think Secret will do well until Miracle gets his manta style up, possibly after travels and drum or at least after drum. Then they'll be on a clock because Miracle can just do his best radiance Naga impression and splitpush/splitfarm until he's just to big in general and autowin if game goes past 40. At least that's what I think will happen.
 
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