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Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by mkess101, Mar 1, 2018.

  1. burge13 Purple Belt

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    I'm not old enough to really remember watching MJ live but is he really better than LeBron (can't be quantified I know)?

    Definitely the best sportsman of my lifetime.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    That's def one way to overcome no supporting cast...through defense, luck, or a combination of the two just don't let your opponent score. Then it doesn't matter whether Lebron gets any help on the offensive end. Serves me right for betting against him in a game 7. He wasn't super-Lebron or anything tonight, but he did enough, as he always seems to do in the East when it matters. Glad I only had 1.35u on the Celts ML I guess, was thinking of going bigger actually.

    So 6 games left in the NBA season, alright then...
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    He's for sure not the physical specimen Lebron is, not even close. Lebron is literally the size of Karl Malone with point guard skills.

    Let me put it this way: It's at least a reasonable debate to have, even if I would still slightly take MJ over Lebron.

    Lebron is a better rebounder and passer. Both terrific defenders, although I think Lebron takes more possessions off at that end out of necessity because he's just asked to do SO much at the other end for this team that he can't use up too much energy on defense. But when Lebron was in Miami with better talent he was a LOCKDOWN defender. So was Jordan, although with his size Lebron is more versatile defensively (can guard more different types of players).

    What separates Jordan imo is that in the 2nd half of his career, he perfected the best fadeaway jumper in league history. It was literally unguardable. He'd make one after another to clinch games down the stretch. Lebron, for everything he does so amazingly well, just doesn't have a go-to weapon like that offensively.
     
  4. burge13 Purple Belt

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    I think we have 3-4 years left of the LeBron show; especially if he goes to a team where he doesn't have to carry this load and can rest 10 games a year. I think he will go down as the greatest when it's all said and done. Statistically is in the conversation already. Perhaps he needs another couple rings and an MVP but let's face it, he's MVP every year whether he wins the vote or not
     
  5. iGnP Silver Belt

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    The Black Mamba speaks the truth

     
  6. burge13 Purple Belt

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    He isn't as good as the other 2 so just trying to get himself in the conversation

    I still agree with what he's saying now however
     
  7. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Added to warriors to win title -150
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Trap? Maybe. But I won't back away from a simple formula that has netted me huge profits so far this year in MLB.

    Astros are -127 vs Yankees today. Yes they played a long, tiring game yesterday that maybe taxed their bullpen a bit. But most of the year their starters have pitched deep into games so their bullpen should be pretty well rested overall.

    But all of that is secondary. Here's the reality. Yankees pitcher Domingo German, after starting the year well, is getting figured out. Over his last 2 starts (8.1 IP) he's given up 12 ER. He's walked 6 hitters in those 8 innings. He's on the struggle bus right now and facing a great lineup that's hitting its stride with reigning AL MVP Altuve heating up.

    On the flipside, the Astros have Verlander on the hill who's been straight up the best pitcher in baseball so far. His 6-2 record is actually misleading. He's been way better than that. He's given up a TOTAL of 9 ER in ALL 11 of his starts combined! His ERA sits barely over 1, he's striking out a ton of guys and walking extremely few. Basically, he's been even better so far than when he was winning CY Young awards and MVP's a few years ago.

    Again, the line feels a lot like a trap but I think that's more attributable to the "Yankee factor" in that they are far and away the most bet on team in MLB due to their fanbase. This line should be closer to -190. Playing it for 4u.

    Also, if the Astros bullpen makes you nervous (for the most part they've been decent this year but it is for sure the weakest part of the team) the first five inning line is Astros -150. Should be -200 or more imo. I have 2u on this.
     
  9. MT6ix Blue Belt

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    I'm on the Astros ML too for 1u, Verlander has probably been one of the most dominant pitchers since coming over to the Astros including last year's playoff run.

    I think the line is so low because the Astros went 14 innings last night with the Cleveland Indians and blew a 5 run lead in the bottom of the ninth and used nearly all their relievers during the marathon. Verlander is going to have to go really deep in this game which doesn't seem unlikely.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah yesterday's game is a factor for sure. It's also the fact that Yankees lines tend to get inflated a bit when they are a good team overall.

    Verlander has failed to pitch 6 or more innings only once this year in 11 starts. And that was 5 2/3 and they won the game. Honestly, it's kind of absurd that there's not more talk about how amazing he's been over this first third of the season. 1.08 ERA and 11.2 K's per 9 IP?? Those are unheard of #'s. Maybe I'm jinxing him here and some regression happens starting today, but shit backing him without paying much juice when he's going like this is a no-brainer.

    AND...even if the Cape comes off and he looks human today, it's very possible the Astros light up German and win with their offense. Like I said, he's been awful his last 2 starts and Astros have a top tier lineup.
     
  11. MT6ix Blue Belt

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    If that shit show didn't happen yesterday, Astros with Verlander on the mound even against the Yankees should be -160 to -170 with the mismatch in pitching like you mentioned. Also, Altuve really starting to heat up.

    I fully expect Verlander to go 7 full or 8 full innings today. It's only when he comes out do we have to start sweating if the game is close. Also, looked at the stats, only Gregorius hits him well in the Yankees lineup.

    It's an afternoon game 1 pm start, hopefully a good start to the day. Good luck!
     
  12. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Might be foolish but I’m paying the heavy juice for the Astros F5 and maybe looking to LB the Yankees if the F5 bet pushes
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    What did you get it at? I bet it at -150 which I thought was really cheap honestly. Expected -200 or worse.
     
  14. quincy k Brown Belt

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    i ended up buying that as well. dont understand the line, cavs will be +600 against gs, maybe more
     
  15. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I went to bet -150 and it moved to -145
     
  16. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Yea I think the lookahead was golden state -700 cavs +500
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Surprised you think that was heavy juice backing the best pitcher in the game and a great offense vs a pitcher who'd been blasted in his last 2 outings.
     
  18. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Considering the full game line was -118ish Houston, and their bullpens are pretty evenly rated to me, yeah, I think that extra 30 cents is pretty significant. I was even considering taking Astros F5 -0.5 because I didnt wanna lay -145
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Full game best I got was -127. But again, Yankees lines are historically skewed when they are good, they just get bet more than other teams. Yankees bullpen has underachieved but was **supposed** to be a strong point. Plus Astros bullpen has a lot of unavail guys today since they all thew yesterday in that 14 inning game.

    Astros f5 -.5 looks good right now though LOL. Wish I'd have done that...

    I have shit ton on this game though. Borderline irresponsible from a BR standpoint compared to my normal MLB plays. ML, first 5, and Astros -2.5 at +190. Sometimes when you think lines are just insanely off you just go for it I guess. I'll be a very happy guy if they all cash.
     
  20. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I dont mean to be a debbie downer, but the Yankees are definitely a team that can erase a 4 run lead in a blink of an eye... Not saying you should hedge, but you can get fantastic ML odds right now on the Yankees if you dont wanna have a "borderline irresponsible" amount on them
     

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