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Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by mkess101, Mar 1, 2018.

  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I already did just based on how thin Astros bullpen might be today. Took Yankees +807 to cover some of it. I'm back solidly in "responsible" territory, but will still be doing cartwheels if Astros cover the -2.5 especially.
     
  2. iGnP Silver Belt

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    good grief man, is this Verlander better than prime Kershaw? this is ridiculous
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    He told everyone that about June of last year he was finally healthy again and his fastball velocity went from 89-90 back to 95-97. And during that time when he had the arm issues, I think he needed to learn to outsmart hitters more and become kinda "crafty" (for lack of a better word) just to stay afloat. Now he has the crazy good stuff back PLUS the knowledge he gained when he didn't have it, and...yeah.

    That's why I was just kinda stunned at today's line. They've been anywhere from -200 to -320 lately with him on the mound. Granted, Yankees are a very good team but still. You have a guy on a historically good run that you get to back paying relatively little juice? Yes please.
     
  4. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Dont forget they needed to travel after the Indians series last night and play an early game today. Also, the bullpen issues. But considering German is probably an above average pitcher and actually pitched really well today, I don't have a problem with the short line. If i remember correctly, i read that it opened at -150 and was bet down by people immediately. cant confirm that, though
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    German has above average stuff, but his command has been bad lately. REALLY bad actually. But yeah all of the other factors I agree with playing a role. The thing is, none of that really would affect Verlander much, and given that he so often just gives up NOTHING these days, I still think the line was silly. You can't win if you don't score. And he's not letting anyone score much at all.
     
  6. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I'm taking a shot on the diamondbacks. Both pitchers suck, but the Diamondbacks have a much superior bullpen. Also looking to add to them live when Koch's night is over
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Monster win with Astros. Books and public were crazy.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Playing Rockies ML, -1.5, and team total o5.5. Suarez has been terrible for SF. Going smaller on all of these though.
     
  9. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I'm on SF... Suarez has been terrible? What about Bettis lol
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Him too. But with Posey out the Rockies have a MUCH better lineup. Esp with Arrenado starting to hit like himself.

    Edit: and honestly Bettis ERA is 2 full runs lower than Suarez. Even with having to pitch around Coors half the time. And Suarez has been worse lately too, whereas Bettis has thrown 2 good games in a row (granted on the road). Suarez with a 5 68 ERA despite pitching in a pitcher friendly park. Yikes.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2018
  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Posey is playing, bud. And even if he weren't, if you look at the Colorado player's road splits, their #s are pretty average. I cant fathom how they are a MUCH better line up

    ERA doesn't mean much imo. Would you rather have a guy who is giving you 8.5 ks and 2 bbs per 9 innings or a guy striking out 6 batters and walking 3.3 per 9? I have a decent lean on this game but with the Astros (and probably Dbacks) coming through for me today, I'm happy to not take my winning and gamble a small bit on the Giants. I think they should be slight favorites

    edit: with all that being said, I meant i would be taking Giants F5. Their bp sucks
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ahh thought Posey was out. Well, I like my play less but I'm still fine with it. Rockies lineup isn't MUCH better with Posey playing, but I'd still take it over SF.

    I also tend to look at recent pitching over the whole body of work, as I think that's more relevant. Could be a flaw in that I weight it too heavily, not sure. Over his last 3 starts, Suarez has:

    4 IP, 9 baserunners (7 H plus 2 BB)
    6 IP, 9 baseruners (8 H plus 1 BB)
    4 IP, 9 baserunners (7 plus 2 BB)

    That kind of WHIP at a place like Coors means you are gonna get shellacked, that turns into a ton of runs.

    Bettis meanwhile over his last 2 starts:

    6 IP, 7 baserunners (5 H plus 2 BB)
    5 IP, 6 baserunners (3 H plus 3 BB)

    Not great, but a hell of a lot better than Suarez who has been hit hard lately. And that's with one game at home (a great pitcher's park) and another at Pittsburgh (another great pitcher's park).
     
  13. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Conveniently leaves out the Brewers game where Bettis allowed 10 hits and 7 runs in 5 IP with a 1:1 k to bb ratio ;)

    Last three games:
    Bettis has 12 ks and 8 walks
    Suarez has 12 ks and 5 walks
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I left it out I know LOL. And it does have some relevance since it was at home. BUT, he's had 2 good starts in a row since then so there's at least a CHANCE he's figured something out. Whereas Suarez has 3 awful starts in a row, 2 of them in ballparks where pitchers thrive. Maybe a little recency bias on my part. But honestly with pitchers I really believe they get in grooves and slumps just like hitters do. So I want the guy who's been pretty good 2 starts in a row over the guy who's been brutally bad 3 starts in a row, if that makes sense.
     
  15. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Gl. I’m not hating your play, I have an inherent bias against the Rockies Bc I think we get value due to their inflated batting #s, so I fade them more often than I bet them (w positive results, actually)
     
  16. iGnP Silver Belt

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    EDIT: D'ANTONI CONFIRMED CP3 NOT PLAYING
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I have Warriors -5.5 for 2u. Without Paul, I just have no confidence Houston can keep up. They'll have a couple nice runs where they hit some 3's and look good, but in the end I think W's win big again.
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Verlander gave up 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings today.

    His season ERA went UP.

    Dude is a freak.
     
  19. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I'm gonna look to LB the Warriors again. I also threw a small bit on Harden u47.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I like the Harden prop to cash, I just don't want to pay -145 for it. If it was -115 I'd hit it too.
     

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