Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - September 2016

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iGnP said:
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Flip a coin on picking a side. I think these two teams are very evenly matched and NO as a 2.5/3 point favorite is a correct line. However there is something fishy with the total. There is the perception that these two teams are high octane offenses with less than stellar defenses. And it's definitely true. But the total currently sits anywhere from 53 to 54.5 (the sharper books being lower side on that total). If you dig into the previous match ups between these two teams, in the last three years, the point total has only gone over 53 points one time (n=6 games). The point total opened at 52.5 and has been bet up to what it is now (meaning, although this point total is high, the public doesn't mind betting the 'over'). I actually think it'll keep going up as the game approaches because of the perception. But because of that I think we're getting value on the under. It's not a play I can personally 'recommend' because I don't play totals too much outside of live betting, but id probably lean on taking the under at the very last moment prior to kick off
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Yep. I think there's some value. You pretty much broke down exactly what I'd say. This total really should be 49.5-50.5. I'm always wary of going too big on an under for a Saints home game as they tend to be shootouts but I think there's a bit of value here as well.

1.5u NO/ATL u54

2-3 in NFL yesterday for me. After going 7-0 week one I've been treading water here.
 
^^^^Also, in 2 fantasy leagues I will need a lot of offense tonight between Brees, Cooks, Ingram, and Freeman. So if it goes over and I can pull of wins in those leagues I'll be crying with one eye LOL.
 
LOL the Falcons might go over 54 themselves. This Saints D is one of the worst I can remember seeing.
 
WOO the under hit!!!



... wait, the 54 points was for BOTH teams?!?! okay yeah that under was the wrong side.
 
Man, I really like the Cubs to wreck the pirates again tonight in another meaningless game for the team.
They won their 100th game last night after 100+ years of not doing so in a season, Hendricks tossed six shutout innings and lowered his MLB's #1 ERA to 1.99, Bryant's home run increased his RBI total to 101.
I don't think Cubs are putting their foot off the pedal, my prediction is that their 3rd best offense and #1 road defense gets dominant win against Pirate's and their awful starter Vogelsong.

Cubs ML and spread has good value.
 
Jumping the gun here but one of my NFL plays this week will undoubtedly be on the Cleveland Browns. I already bet it at +8.5 but I think this line is gonna drop a bit more
 
My big play is going to be Louisville vs Clemson.

I wish I would have jumped in Louisville at +2.

They are now -2.

I'll be in Vegas this weekend...thinking about a large wager on them
 
Took Clemson Ml +110 and will add more if the price goes up. Let's see if Jackson can win in Death Valley at night. Also just took Watson at +950 to win the heisman. Best odds so far this season and the rest of the schedule sets up nicely if they can get past Louisville and @FSU.
 
iGnP said:
Jumping the gun here but one of my NFL plays this week will undoubtedly be on the Cleveland Browns. I already bet it at +8.5 but I think this line is gonna drop a bit more
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Do you think the Browns beating Miami was more a testament to them not being as bad as we initially thought with the third stringer or more to Miami just not being that good? That was pretty pathetic to watch them struggle at home and need a missed fg to survive against a team that's not very talented and banged up at their most important position. there's something about Miami that I really don't like. Tannehill seems like a little bitch from what I've heard about him in practice and an an underachiever, Suh doesn't seem to be living up to his payday, etc.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Do you think the Browns beating Miami was more a testament to them not being as bad as we initially thought with the third stringer or more to Miami just not being that good? That was pretty pathetic to watch them struggle at home and need a missed fg to survive against a team that's not very talented and banged up at their most important position. there's something about Miami that I really don't like. Tannehill seems like a little bitch from what I've heard about him in practice and an an underachiever, Suh doesn't seem to be living up to his payday, etc.
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Probably a little bit of both. Miami just isnt good enough to be that big of a favorite against any team in the league. The Browns have decent weapons on offense and are actually in the top ten in yards per play at 6.0 ypp (small sample size, but still). There was also the death of Jose Fernandez Sunday morning which could have created a distraction to the Dolphins. Browns should have won. I hope they find a better kicker before Sunday

I think we're in a similar situation in this game, I'm fading the Redskins as large favorite. The Redskins have a pretty shitty defense (worse than Miami's) and Kessler didn't perform badly at all. If the Browns can limit turnovers, I think they have a pretty decent chance at covering this spread. Spreads of 7 or more should only really be considered when you're dealing with an elite team, and Washington is far from it. I doubt they cover this spread more often than not
 
iGnP said:
Probably a little bit of both. Miami just isnt good enough to be that big of a favorite against any team in the league. The Browns have decent weapons on offense and are actually in the top ten in yards per play at 6.0 ypp (small sample size, but still). There was also the death of Jose Fernandez Sunday morning which could have created a distraction to the Dolphins. Browns should have won. I hope they find a better kicker before Sunday

I think we're in a similar situation in this game, I'm fading the Redskins as large favorite. The Redskins have a pretty shitty defense (worse than Miami's) and Kessler didn't perform badly at all. If the Browns can limit turnovers, I think they have a pretty decent chance at covering this spread. Spreads of 7 or more should only really be considered when you're dealing with an elite team, and Washington is far from it. I doubt they cover this spread more often than not
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Yeah Jose Fernandez death really hit me pretty hard. Seemed like a nice young guy, had all the talent to be a future hof'er, that Dee Gordon clip was pretty deep.

Agree, people are so reactionary when it comes to the nfl, Skins beat the Giants and people are thinking they're back to decent form now (which could be true) but you can't deny that their D is pretty shitty as you mentioned, I still don't think Kirk is very reliable, and those rumors about players being upset with him just don't go away with one early season divisional win. Most people are expecting them to win this game and I think that puts a lot more pressure on them, whereas last weekend people thought NY was gonna beat up on them so there wasn't much pressure to perform all that well there.

Maybe the over's worth a look too but haven't thought much about it. Agree though on CLE needing a decent kicker, that's gonna hamper them bigtime. If they can't convert fg's then it's obviously gonna be a big problem for them.

Just quickly scanning the board at first look, Oakland +3 reduced juice looks decent, maybe the Jags if the line gets up to +3, Bears if they creep up to 3. What do you think of those?
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah Jose Fernandez death really hit me pretty hard. Seemed like a nice young guy, had all the talent to be a future hof'er, that Dee Gordon clip was pretty deep.

Agree, people are so reactionary when it comes to the nfl, Skins beat the Giants and people are thinking they're back to decent form now (which could be true) but you can't deny that their D is pretty shitty as you mentioned, I still don't think Kirk is very reliable, and those rumors about players being upset with him just don't go away with one early season divisional win. Most people are expecting them to win this game and I think that puts a lot more pressure on them, whereas last weekend people thought NY was gonna beat up on them so there wasn't much pressure to perform all that well there.

Maybe the over's worth a look too but haven't thought much about it. Agree though on CLE needing a decent kicker, that's gonna hamper them bigtime. If they can't convert fg's then it's obviously gonna be a big problem for them.

Just quickly scanning the board at first look, Oakland +3 reduced juice looks decent, maybe the Jags if the line gets up to +3, Bears if they creep up to 3. What do you think of those?
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Prob no opinion on Jags/Colts even if it's 3, although jags are *probably* the right side. I hate wagering on bad teams and bad quarterbacks. I'm a huge Luck fan too so I don't wanna root for him to lose

Regarding the Raiders/Ravens, I think the Ravens are the right side and they might be one of my plays this week. I feel like I have a good gauge on the team and I believe they match up well the Raiders. They have a good secondary (defense in general for that matter) and while the Raiders defense is meh. Raiders only allowed 10 points this last weekend but Mariota didn't have Walker who he heavily relies on.
 
I really regret not getting in on the vikings to win the super bowl before the season started. Its funny because if Bradford somehow stays healthy its a better chance than Bridgwater but the defense is just a winner.
 
Lex Bigelow said:
I really regret not getting in on the vikings to win the super bowl before the season started. Its funny because if Bradford somehow stays healthy its a better chance than Bridgwater but the defense is just a winner.
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You can still get pretty damn good odds on them. They're very very underrated on a weekly basis
 
iGnP said:
Prob no opinion on Jags/Colts even if it's 3, although jags are *probably* the right side. I hate wagering on bad teams and bad quarterbacks. I'm a huge Luck fan too so I don't wanna root for him to lose

Regarding the Raiders/Ravens, I think the Ravens are the right side and they might be one of my plays this week. I feel like I have a good gauge on the team and I believe they match up well the Raiders. They have a good secondary (defense in general for that matter) and while the Raiders defense is meh. Raiders only allowed 10 points this last weekend but Mariota didn't have Walker who he heavily relies on.
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I'll be on the Ravens this week too. Glad to hear you like them.
 
Lex Bigelow said:
I really regret not getting in on the vikings to win the super bowl before the season started. Its funny because if Bradford somehow stays healthy its a better chance than Bridgwater but the defense is just a winner.
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Wait another week after they lose to the Giants.
 
Will be on Pitt, NYG, Arizona, and the Ravens so far this week. Already put in Washington -3 in college football and the posted Clemson ML and Watson for heisman bets. Love the games this week.
 
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