Official UFC 196 Thread

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Joseph Budden said:
Well again, it comes down to the wrestling and how Mendes and RDA differ in the application. Mendes gets in on the hips out in the open and turns a sharp corner to score all the takedowns. Also good to keep in mind that scoring these types of takedows is made easier by Mendes being orthodox and McGregor a southpaw.

As far as I can remember, RDA has always relied on backing guys up, duck down to get in on the hips and pull them out from underneath against the cage. This is not the best takedown style to have against a ring general the likes of Conor, who is not going to back up.

I do think RDA's top game is better though.
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Good point about the orthodox vs southpaw comparison. Mendes used counters to set up a couple of his takedowns in the fight, I think RDA will be able to use the same tactic. I see RDA as being able to wrestle effectively when pressuring, or to counter pressure. McGregor really pressed at Mendes a number of times which got him taken down a couple times, too like I mentioned previously. Conor will backup at some point unless he instantly blasts him like Aldo (anythings's possible).

I don't think there is any disputing who has a better top game between RDA and Mendes. RDA is a whole different beast.

Joseph Budden said:
I'm fully expecting a lot of casuals to say "Pettis and Conor are similar" lol
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I suspect that is what a lot of people are doing. Pettis has paper-mache takedown defence. There are some things to be learned from the fight about RDA, but it's certainly not as simple as A = B. My preference for RDA is rooted in him being the underdog, I see it as a toss up essentially. Like someone else said, very real possibility of one guy straight up destroying the other because of their styles.
 
Bradillac said:
Bad matchup for Conor? This is a bad matchup for RDA. A guy who loves to pressure against a guy who excels when he's pressured. Diaz, Ferguson and Pettis are tougher matchups for Conor.
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I agree Ferg is a matchup Conor fans shouldn't want, but if ever there was a pressure fighter it's him. I can't remember the last time the guy took a step backward in a fight. The reason he's a bad matchup for Conor is that he has an iron chin and because he has so many unorthodox ways to force grappling scrambles (where he excels).
 
Are we expecting Conor's line to get better or worse from now until fight time? I want to bet him but I can't see his line getting higher than it is now. I'd honestly say it gets down to the -120-130 range
 
iGnP said:
Are we expecting Conor's line to get better or worse from now until fight time? I want to bet him but I can't see his line getting higher than it is now. I'd honestly say it gets down to the -120-130 range
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Hoping it drops. I'm on him either way but really hoping for the same price you are.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Hoping it drops. I'm on him either way but really hoping for the same price you are.
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I'm thinking of playing Conor straight up and hedging with RDA sub. I think it's by far RDA's best chance of winning. Conor has shown and iron chin so RDA hurting him standing seems somewhat unlikely (granted it's a weight class up so probably more power but Mendes hits really hard for a FW and Conor ate his shots easy). It also means that I don't see RDA scoring a tko on the mat as being very likely because with his bjj advantage I think he'd only use strikes to distract Conor and go sub hunting. Can't see RDA winning a decision because I just don't see two finishers like this going 5 rounds.

So basically I like Conor in the fight but I think my hedge will be RDA sub.
 
mkess101 said:
I'm thinking of playing Conor straight up and hedging with RDA sub. I think it's by far RDA's best chance of winning. Conor has shown and iron chin so RDA hurting him standing seems somewhat unlikely (granted it's a weight class up so probably more power but Mendes hits really hard for a FW and Conor ate his shots easy). It also means that I don't see RDA scoring a tko on the mat as being very likely because with his bjj advantage I think he'd only use strikes to distract Conor and go sub hunting. Can't see RDA winning a decision because I just don't see two finishers like this going 5 rounds.

So basically I like Conor in the fight but I think my hedge will be RDA sub.
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I think RDA's best chance is decision. RDA hasn't gotten a sub win in forever, barely ever tries them, and Conor has been working with guys like Ryan Hall. We saw what working with Ryan Hall can do for someone when Artem fought, ironically enough, Ryan Hall.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I think RDA's best chance is decision. RDA hasn't gotten a sub win in forever, barely ever tries them, and Conor has been working with guys like Ryan Hall. We saw what working with Ryan Hall can do for someone when Artem fought, ironically enough, Ryan Hall.
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Yeah maybe Conor makes that big leap in his grappling game in working with Hall. Artem was dominated by Hall grappling, but he did stave off the sub and you're right, that's an accomplishment in itself. I think RDA's lack of subs (and sub attempts) lately can probably be more explained by who he's been fighting. Cerrone x2, Pettis, Bendo, Diaz, etc. all have slick ground games. I don't think RDA felt he needed to fish for subs against those guys. With Conor I think (especially if he's getting the worst of it standing) he may be more desperate to look for subs (and may believe he has a decided advantage grappling and can secure a dominant position and find a sub).
 
iGnP said:
Are we expecting Conor's line to get better or worse from now until fight time? I want to bet him but I can't see his line getting higher than it is now. I'd honestly say it gets down to the -120-130 range
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Can't speak for anyone besides myself, but I am fairly confident the line moves back more toward RDA especially as the event draws nearer. I have it in my mind as a pick 'em, so that's why i'm taking the dog in RDA.

...Well mostly, I've been a big fan of his since he's joined the UFC, thought he was criminally underrated for the longest time; however, I don't think that's influencing my selection here (was against him in the Pettis fight).

So pumped 4 diz fite
 
Foghorn Leghorn said:
Can't speak for anyone besides myself, but I am fairly confident the line moves back more toward RDA especially as the event draws nearer. I have it in my mind as a pick 'em, so that's why i'm taking the dog in RDA.

...Well mostly, I've been a big fan of his since he's joined the UFC, thought he was criminally underrated for the longest time; however, I don't think that's influencing my selection here (was against him in the Pettis fight).

So pumped 4 diz fite
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I disagree. I think if anything the line may move more toward Conor. I think there's a few things that point to it. First is the obvious, in that he's the "name" in this fight. Casuals don't really know RDA at all, so the casual "fan" who's gonna bet is most likely going to be betting on Conor.

Second, I think Conor has a lot of sharp $ scared right now. The sharps generally like to fade the public (not always, but they love hyped guys like Conor that inflate lines sometimes for reasons outside the cage so they can bet against them at great odds). But I think Conor has them scared to go against him. I think a lot of "sharp" money was on Aldo when Conor got bet up by the betting public and they got burned. Not that I think they are now going to necessarily bet ON Conor in this fight, but they may take a pass.

Finally, I think in a "superfight" the general feeling is to lean toward the guy from the higher weight class (kinda obvious and it makes sense). And often times at the weigh ins it becomes apparent that one fighter is clearly bigger than the other. But here the two are going to both be the same size. Conor is a giant FW. He's always made the cut, so he's not "too big" for the weight class, but it's obvious the cut is difficult for him and he'll look every bit as much a LW as RDA. When people see this at the weigh in, the old saying "a good big fighter will almost always beat a good small fighter" will lose any relevance to most people that might be looking to place a bet.

I agree I'm fired up for this one.
 
Holm wins by KO/TKO +135
Holm wins inside distance +140

Uhh, what?
 
hey, if any of us KNEW where conor-rda line would move, we should HAMMER it, it's hard to say

my gut is: conor gets bet every day up to and including fight day.

as a probable RDA bettor, i'm waiting till fight night
 
mkess101 said:
Holm wins by KO/TKO +135
Holm wins inside distance +140

Uhh, what?
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Joseph Budden said:
They did the same thing for Conor vs Aldo. You got a better price on Conor itd lol
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Not to sound like a "know it all" or anything like that lol, but I see that happen all the time. It usually happens when the lines are fairly close and for example, the "tko" and/or "not itd" get bet/hammered

It's the bettors, not the bookies that make it happen

I see this happen with o2.5/fight DEC and u2.5/fight itd, too
 
Thanks for the insight about the potential line movement, guys
 
FFS. Any rumours of a replacement? I didn't think they would replace Aldo with Mendes so I guess there's a chance...
 
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Sham5916910 said:
FFS. Any rumours of a replacement? I didn't think they would replace Aldo with Mendes so I guess there's a chance...
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Im guessing cowboy, would be perect timing after that sub win

cowboy +250?
 
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