Official UFC 197 Thread

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i've been watching alot of sergio pettis and chris kelades tape.

kelades style of lunging in with punches trying to get his clinch game going will be a disaster against someone with precise striking and excellent footwork like pettis. kelades got outstruck by beal who completely gassed after 1 round and should have lost that fight (poor dec IMO).

i just can't see kelades grinding his way to a decision like many people are predicting. think pettis gets it done in dominant fashion.
Don't think its many people, just mkess and I lol. Would just much rather risk a bit on a line with value to me, since Pettis has never fought a tough grinder like Kelades who is going to stay in his face and make it a dog fight, rather than a prospect whos still developing and already let late mistakes lead to a loss.

Not to mention Sergio stays losing third rounds, and Kelades gets stronger as a fight goes. Just need that trend to continue, and Kelades to eek out another round
 
Don't think its many people, just mkess and I lol. Would just much rather risk a bit on a line with value to me, since Pettis has never fought a tough grinder like Kelades who is going to stay in his face and make it a dog fight, rather than a prospect whos still developing and already let late mistakes lead to a loss.

Not to mention Sergio stays losing third rounds, and Kelades gets stronger as a fight goes. Just need that trend to continue, and Kelades to eek out another round

half of bloodyelbow on kelades as well. but yeah, sergio does some peculiar shit in r3s. i agree kelades will come to pressure like hell, just think he's gonna get hammered trying to close the distance.
 
half of bloodyelbow on kelades as well. but yeah, sergio does some peculiar shit in r3s. i agree kelades will come to pressure like hell, just think he's gonna get hammered trying to close the distance.
Kind of surprised by that, thought BE would have it close to a Pettis sweep. Wouldn't surprise me if Pettis can stop the pressure, and it could be quite easy to livebet out of a pettis bet anyway. Have a hard time seeing him lose round 1
 
RE Pettis/Kelades:

Here's the thing about diet Pettis: His tdd is meh. Not awful, not great. He has good footwork but he'll just have these times where he backs straight up when pressured. Doesn't fire back, doesn't move laterally. And then he ends up on his back. And that's where the real issues are for him. He's just not slick like his bro with his guard. He plays defense okay but he doesn't threaten and can be held down for long stretches.

I don't have huge confidence in Kelades takedown game. I think it's kinda like Pettis tdd. Not good, not awful. But if, IF Kelades does get Pettis down there's a good chance that round is just his because the entire round could be Kelades in Pettis' guard. So it's possible it's two takedowns hit and Kelades wins a snoozer.

I think there's a little value in Kelades +180 (where I got him) and especially Kelades dec +305. Yeah, gun to my head to pick a winner I'll take lil Pettis but at these odds I like the dog.
 
RE Pettis/Kelades:

Here's the thing about diet Pettis: His tdd is meh. Not awful, not great. He has good footwork but he'll just have these times where he backs straight up when pressured. Doesn't fire back, doesn't move laterally. And then he ends up on his back. And that's where the real issues are for him. He's just not slick like his bro with his guard. He plays defense okay but he doesn't threaten and can be held down for long stretches.

I don't have huge confidence in Kelades takedown game. I think it's kinda like Pettis tdd. Not good, not awful. But if, IF Kelades does get Pettis down there's a good chance that round is just his because the entire round could be Kelades in Pettis' guard. So it's possible it's two takedowns hit and Kelades wins a snoozer.

I think there's a little value in Kelades +180 (where I got him) and especially Kelades dec +305. Yeah, gun to my head to pick a winner I'll take lil Pettis but at these odds I like the dog.

I am pretty confident in pettis in this one (could be a little biased again), but I just really believe this kid has learned from his losses and will keep improving at a good pace between fights. He is still only 22 and is training with some of the best guys in the world, especially now that they will be switching back and forth between Roufus and Jackson-Wink. I know that doesn't have a ton of bearing on this fight, but Kelades is what he is at this point and I think Pettis would have the edge without much improvement to be honest. I agree there isn't much value in his line, but I might rather use it as parlay fodder than stab at Kelades. Although the decision line does offer some value as I don't give him much chance to finish Sergio and Pettis has had a lot of close fights.
 
Has there been a consensus pick as to who will be the square bet of the night?
 
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so i actually like U5.5 decisions for this card. (+106)

IMO:

likely finishes
jones-osp
whittaker-natal
steele-roberts
east-harris
hester-de lima

could go either way:
DJ-cejudo
pettis-barboza
rodriguez-fili
franca-vick
lee-escudero

likely decisions
pettis-kelades
lima-esparza
 
FOTN is a toughie; lots of good choices.

my two favorites:
barboza-pettis +400
rodriguez-fili +450

might even do a lil on both
 
mm dec +110 on betstars (pokerstars) if anyone is looking to bet that.. nice value imo
 
I am pretty confident in pettis in this one (could be a little biased again), but I just really believe this kid has learned from his losses and will keep improving at a good pace between fights. He is still only 22 and is training with some of the best guys in the world, especially now that they will be switching back and forth between Roufus and Jackson-Wink. I know that doesn't have a ton of bearing on this fight, but Kelades is what he is at this point and I think Pettis would have the edge without much improvement to be honest. I agree there isn't much value in his line, but I might rather use it as parlay fodder than stab at Kelades. Although the decision line does offer some value as I don't give him much chance to finish Sergio and Pettis has had a lot of close fights.

Don't really disagree honestly. Lil Pettis could starch Kelades early and honestly I wouldn't be shocked. Or he could keep him at range and win a kickboxing match.

For me the bottom line is I probably should pass on this fight but...I don't do that LOL. And I'd rather go small on what I think is a somewhat live dog than lay juice on a guy that I'm not very confident in.
 
so i actually like U5.5 decisions for this card. (+106)

IMO:

likely finishes
jones-osp
whittaker-natal
steele-roberts
east-harris
hester-de lima

could go either way:
DJ-cejudo
pettis-barboza
rodriguez-fili
franca-vick
lee-escudero

likely decisions
pettis-kelades
lima-esparza

I would slide MM/Cejudo down into "likely decisions" but otherwise I agree. I think I will hit this small as well.
 
FOTN is a toughie; lots of good choices.

my two favorites:
barboza-pettis +400
rodriguez-fili +450

might even do a lil on both

I think those are the most likely yep. My darkhorse would be Hester/De Lima. If it lasts into the 3rd could be some really good back and forth action in what should be a competitive fight for as long as it lasts.
 
FOTN is a toughie; lots of good choices.

my two favorites:
barboza-pettis +400
rodriguez-fili +450

might even do a lil on both
Yeah had my eyes on these, and Hester vs Pezao. Undecided though.

Stabbed no submissions +1112
 
Yeah had my eyes on these, and Hester vs Pezao. Undecided though.

Stabbed no submissions +1112


Good line. I'm gonna hit one similar.

The subs I can see is Kevin Lee subbing Efrain, Fili getting caught in a choke, and cejudo possibly getting caught in a choke but they're pretty unlikely imo.
 
Good line. I'm gonna hit one similar.

The subs I can see is Kevin Lee subbing Efrain, Fili getting caught in a choke, and cejudo possibly getting caught in a choke but they're pretty unlikely imo.
Def some possible subs, mainly the ones you listed + Jones, but seeing no subs on this card wouldn't surprise me in the least.
 

wow is this for real? scary customer service :eek:

Feels like its possible, feel for that guy losing 45K though and its true bookies do not like people withdrawing funds like a payslip, am not even sure doing if once a month or twice is going to make a difference since bookies can say x,y,z and its just all your fault !

I just keep my bank rolls small just in case since you never know.
 
Feels like its possible, feel for that guy losing 45K though and its true bookies do not like people withdrawing funds like a payslip, am not even sure doing if once a month or twice is going to make a difference since bookies can say x,y,z and its just all your fault !

He ended up getting his money with the help of SportsBookReview if you keep reading.
 
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