Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 9, 2016.
i have too much cash on clint hester right now.
Lol i had two hrs sleep a few weeks back got up and deadlifted 200kg! Its all in the mind!
awesome price! would hit hit it semi big if i could bet there
last ufc i made a lot more profit than usual because i was too drunk to give a fuck about hedging. let's see if the same happens tonight.
which books was that with g?
Seeing a few things I might bet on, not settled on anything yet, I'll post below what I'm thinking and if anyone reads parts of it hopefully can persuade or dissuade me either way on some of them haha. Thoughts if possible?
Jones vs OSP = Jones ITD @ -400 (probably parlay with a bet below) + u2.5 @ -222 = Jones is another level. Tough finding value here though. Most of Jones recent fights he's gone the overs but that was against a much higher calibre of fighter. This is OSP on short notice. Jones has been out for a while and with problems obviously but he's been training in that time and just looks a monster now. He can be a slow starter of late but it's hard to envision him not just blowing through OSP, especially if there's talk about him headlining 200, could just come out, want to put OSP away early and just get that next fight agreed ASAP. You've got to figure OSP knows his cardio isn't amazing in the first place and being short notice he's probably got to just go for it in the first round or two when he's fresh.
MM vs Cejudo = o1.5 rounds @ -500 or o2.5 rounds @ -277 (parlay with the Jones round bet) + MM r4 @ +1800 + MM r5 @ +3300 = Cejudo has looked good but MM should be better everywhere. Better, more diverse striking, faster, better cardio (Cejudo never been into the championship rounds). Cejudo struggled to take down Formiga, I know he's highly decorated but I think MM has better MMA wrestling and he can push a high pace for 5 rounds. I think as the fight gets on MM can take Cejudo down and maybe even submit him, especially if Cejudo struggles with the pace (he's never fought anyone on MM's level, Formiga is by far his best win and that wasn't flawless). Probably parlay the o1.5 or o2.5 with a Bones bet of some kind.
Pettis vs Barboza = Pettis @ -160 or Pettis ITD @ +137 or Pettis sub @ +400 = I really like Pettis here despite him looking iffy in his last 2. Totally outclassed by RDA and an awkward fight against Eddie, I reckon he gets back to basics here and it's a fight where he can thrive. The main thing with his last 2 fights is both opponents put mad pressure on Pettis and he's not at his best on the back foot. I don't think he'll be as worried about getting taken down by Barboza as he was against RDA/Eddie and he'll get comfortable and unload with that knowing if he is taken down he's better on the ground than Barboza. I think Pettis will be the one more likely to pressure here, hurt Barboza and finish him with a sub. Barboza is an ace striker but he can be hurt and I don't think he's the type of fighter that makes Pettis looks bad. That's people who can put a lot of pressure on Pettis and not give him any space or time and make him fear the takedown. I just see Pettis getting comfortable here, taking the initiative and probably getting a finish. Could be an amazing fight though.
Natal vs Whittaker = Fight ends in KO @ -125 or Whittaker in r1/2 @ +110 = Was going to do Whittaker KO but it's only slightly better than the fight to end in KO @ -110 so I'd rather take the slightly less odds for a bit of cover. Whittaker has looked ace at MW, he's got solid hands and speed kills. Natal's been hurt as well as finished quite a lot of times and he's pretty slow, should be a routine fight really, think Whittaker puts him away in the first or second, just taking that cover in case Natal clips him with a wild punch himself, dunno whether to bother with the Whittaker in r1/2 or just stick with the fight ending by KO.
Rodriguez vs Fili = Yair sub @ +650 = Interesting fight. I quite like Yair's style though, just constant working and mad unpredictable both on the feet and on the ground. Not many wins by submission but he's looked dangerous on the ground and willing to go for things, Fili has been susceptible to chokes and I could see Yair catching him with something at some point potentially in a wild scramble on the ground or if Fili shoots in on him near the fence. Similar with if Yair hurts him on the feet, I think if he hurt him and made him shoot in Yair would commit to a choke and similar if he dropped Fili, hunt a sub rather than going at it with ground and pound. I think at the odds I like it.
Sergio vs Kelades = o2.5 rounds @ -225 = Probably just parlay with o2.5 in the Esparza fight if I do both of them. Sergio is very technical but not a ton of power, good grappling. Kelades a grinder with a decent chin and pretty good submission defence, I remember him taking over in that Paddy fight after an initial first round of defending submissions. Think Sergio probably just wins a kickboxing match with Kelades getting him down every now and then, not really got the finishing ability of his brother yet.
Esparza vs Lima = Lima decision @ +275 or o2.5 rounds @ -250 = Latter bet is probably a safer idea. From what I remember, Lima has decent stand-up and Esparza looked awful against JJ once she started getting hit on the feet, shooting from way far out and just utter panic. Lima isn't JJ obviously but Carla's first fight back after that loss it'll be interesting to see how she looks and is mentally - I read something in here about her or her manager going off at a reporter who asked a JJ related question after they initially specified NOT to ask anything about JJ, just seemed weird. Some potential mental weakness? Hate going armchair psychologist on it but yeah, if Lima can avoid the first takedown attempt or two and land a few shots it could get fuck with her head a bit. She took a beating in her last fight and it's always interesting in seeing how they come back, I think a bit of adversity early on could set the tone of the fight. I'll probably just play the overs though in a parlay with something.
Franca vs Vick = Vick submission @ +350 = I don't know much about Franca other than a couple of posts I've read in here. I like Vick though, he's a rangy LW and fights long, good use of jabs/straights/kicks and he's adept on the ground, usually able to hit reversals or get back to his feet when on his back. My main thing with the submission prop is I really like his guillotine. He's 4-0 in the UFC (2 subs, 2 decisions). The 2 decisions were over people who tried to strike with him and didn't really bother grappling. In the two fights where his opponents have tried to clinch up and take him down against the fence though he's lightning quick with going for the choke. With Franca being a Brazilian grappler I'm assuming most of his takedowns attempts will come from trying to clinch with Vick against the cage rather than shooting mad power doubles and the like, it should give Vick a chance to threaten with it a few times, especially if Franca can't take him down and keep him down. Like I said earlier, he's been content to strike when his opponent won't initiate the grappling but when they have he's looked a submission threat, so I'll probably take a punt on the prop at those odds.
De Lima vs Hester = Maybe Hester KO @ +200 = He's got decent hands and alright power and I expect it to be mostly a brawl. Him moving up in weight class and with a proper gym that should help him come on quite nicely. I'm more just hoping it'll be like a Whittaker situation; the weight cut no longer being an issue and him able to get his hands going, plus with him moving up and not gassing he'll hopefully have a speed advantage which should help. It's either this or pass
Efrain vs Lee = Either Lee decision @ +115 or o2.5 rounds @ -163 = Efrain is durable and only been subbed by two fighters who are both better than Lee (in BJJ and overall). He's survived on the ground against solid grapplers too, Leonardo Santos couldn't submit him. I don't think Lee is as huge submission threat as his record makes outreally. He was on the regionals but since stepping up to the UFC and facing a higher standard he's not really submitted anyone, though his BJJ is good in terms of scrambling and positional. I think Lee probably wins the fight but Efrain can be scrappy too and I could see him maybe picking up a round or so.
OSP in rd 1 and rd 2 (+1400 and +1825, respectively) a little too good to pass up for me. 0.1u on each of those
BArboza Felder got it tho.. You think this'll be less volume ?
Wow it went up?? It was like +600 Osp rd 1 before
Felder will stand in front of you and trade shots. He said himself he gets mad and more aggressive when he gets hit, which is good for him.
Anthony Pettis isn't the type to trade throw high volume and trade shots. He's elusive and picks his shots.
Imma go ham on Barboza if Sergio Pettis loses. Anthony Pettis isn't as strong mentally when his brother loses, I feel.
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