Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

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BTW: I have made BD's for every single UFC FN 83 bout and I will start a new thread to put the man slow to not clutter this one with a bunch of long-winded articles that posters may or may not want to read.


I will post them momentarily
 
Mkdess / EZ

Saw where you were discussing Murphy/Faszholz

You both are right about Faszholz being fade material and I have an article about it I will post in just a second
 
if one BD isn't posted it will be up momentarily ...hope the input helps and am glad to contribute as I have not provided a lot of contribution ITT for a long time (Boo this man)

Discuss these fights with me and tell me what you think... where I am right or wrong
 
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Donald Cerrone (28-7 MMA, 15-4 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (14-2-1, 1 NC MMA 3-1 UFC)

Cerrone -295, Olivera +245​

It's going to be a hoedown showdown for sure -- inside the octagon on February 21 -- when the American Cowboy takes on the Brazilian Cowboy in a tilt to determine once and for all which buckaroo has the right to mind the ranch and don the Stetson with pride.

The longstanding WEC/UFC veteran Donald Cerrone is a ultra-diverse mixed martial artist who had pieced together a remarkable eight fight win streak en route to challenging champion Rafael dos Anjos for the 155 pound LW title in his last outing. Unfortunately Cerrone would fall short in a mere 66 seconds of action as the champion landed a brutal strike to the liver that sent the American crumbling to the canvas unable to continue. Nevertheless, Donald has built a cult following due in large part to his Bud Light swigging Everyman persona buttressed by his "take on all comers" bravado. As such, during his march toward title contention, "Cowboy" wasn't on a proverbial Joe Louis "Bum of the Month Cub" fight tour, but was instead stacking bodies made up of the divisional elite in what seemed like a once a week affair. Indeed, finishes of B+ talent like Evan Dunham and Edson Barboza began his run where he would go on to pick off A+ level talent including Eddie Alvarez and Benson Henderson along the way. That said, as good as Donald is, he has had two cracks at the lightweight champion and has came up deuces on both tries. This Faber-esque inability to seize gold on multiple occasions has left the popular fighter in a bit of a lightweight purgatory. As a result, Donald is going to attempt to resurrect his career 15 pounds north of his usual weight class and try his hand in the welterweight division. Already a large 155 pounder, the 6'0" tall Cerrone isn't going to be giving away any notable size advantages as a welterweight but will rather be an average size competitor for the division. Moreover, with his long lean frame he'll be able to put muscle on it and should fill out nicely. Physical attributes aside, Donald is a Muay-Thai wrecking-machine with top shelf Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a granite chin who should have no problem picking up wins in whatever division he so chooses to compete.

Brazilian "Cowboy" Alex Oliveira burst on the International scene when he was a last-minute replacement opposite the highly touted prospect Gilbert Burns on March 21, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 62. Flying way under the radar Oliveira came into the bout a superheavy underdog closing at +575 to the undefeated Burns were it was anticipated but he would be blown out in the first frame. Subsequently, the Brazilian cowboy would indeed go on to lose a third around submission, but not before tuning up the highly touted Brazilian prospect in the first two stanzas forcing Burns into needing a desperation third round finish to win the match. Summarily, Oliveira would acquit himself well having ostensibly won the opening 10 minutes of the match as a short notice replacement. No longer a blip on the radar, the 27-year-old Oliveira's Muay-Thai striking is deadly and while he is just a Bluebelt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, his competency on the mat far exceeds his rank in the grappling art. At 5'11" tall with a 73 inch reach, the Brazilian has a sizzling kickboxing game with power in all four limbs. On the outside the Brazilian is an absolute sniper and with his deceptive strength he is a beast in the clinch as well. Incessantly initiating action, there simply is not an area in which you are safe with this kid. Indeed, he is consistently on his front foot marching you down begging for a fight. That's just it, the Brazilian absolutely loves to fight. A rarity in modern mixed martial arts, Oliveira competed five times in 2015 -- going 4-1 -- and he has not fought less than four times in a year since 2011.

This is a difficult fight to predict given that both men have fight ending power, are in the prime parts of their career, and are fighting in a weight class they are not accustomed to. Like Donald, the Brazilian has also been a natural lightweight competitor for most of his career with sparse appearances above the 155 pound limit. As such, neither man will have a distinct advantage given that both will be competing in somewhat foreign territory. With all that said, I do believe at the end of the day that it is the original "Cowboy" from Albuquerque, New Mexico who has the more diverse skill set and is a bit more clean with his technique. Therefore he has more ways to get the job done and better chance at ending the fight. Essentially, as long as Donald comes into the bout highly motivated -- with his head screwed on straight -- it is his fight to lose. Still yet, there are far too many variables for me to be comfortable in the pick and if I were betting on the scrap it would be a dog or pass scenario.

Prediction: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone earns his spurs via submission (arm-bar/triangle choke)
 
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Brunson 14-3 vs. Carneiro 20-9


Brunson -395 vs. Carneiro +320​

A 3-time Division II All-American wrestler from the University of North Carolina at Pembroke, Derek Brunson is the stereotypical wrestle/boxer that we have come to know in mixed martial arts with wrestling as their primary background. Not to be pigeonholed as a single discipline fighter however, Brunson is an athlete extraordinaire competent in every discipline relevant to the sport. A three tool fighter, the hulking Brunson has excellent striking, wrestling, and submission grappling skills that have propelled him into the 185 pounds divisional elite. Perched just outside of the UFC top ten -- as the #13 ranked middleweight in the world -- Brunson has been steadily climbing the 185 pound ladder since winning his promotional debut over the scrappy Chris Leben in 2012. Brunson has won five of six fights in the UFC looking more impressive in each subsequent outing. However, Brunson really showed his true potential when he was paired opposite Cuban mixed martial arts juggernaut Yoel Romero in a matchup that by all metrics -- at least on paper -- looked to be the worst possible stylistic opponent he could have hoped for. Incredibly though, for two rounds Brunson was handily defeating -- and even out wrestling -- the former Olympic freestyle wrestling silver medalist prior to shutting down in round three due to a terrible weight cut.

Showing maturity, the 32-year-old North Carolina native has sense hired a special nutritionist and follows a strict dietary and exercise regimen allowing him to make weight without killing himself. Meanwhile, the fruits of Brunson's labor have been readily apparent and heading into his 18th professional fight this weekend he is riding an ultra-impressive three fight win streak and is the prime of his career.

Standing opposite Brunson this Sunday will be a 37 year old long time mixed martial arts veteran and absolute Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu phenom Roan Carneiro. Competing as a professional mixed martial artist for 16 years now, the 3rd° BJJ Black belt is on a four fight win streak and appears to be the best he has ever been. The Brazilian makes his way back to the octagon for a second stint in the promotion following a successful one-night, eight-man tournament victory in the BattleGrounds MMA organization.

Talented as he is, fighting just one time per year from 2009 to 2013 has stifled the Brazilians progress. Historically, the Brazilians vulnerability was his striking and inability to ground his opponent which meant the submission specialist was often forced to fight his adversaries on the feet. The ensuing result was a mediocre 10-5 record that he brought into the UFC and an even worse 12-8 mark upon his release. Adding insult to injury was how and to whom he was losing to. For instance, the multiple time BJJ champion was humiliated after being forced to tap-out to a Kevin Burns triangle choke which ultimately resulted in a pink-slip. In his absence from the major league MMA promotions, Carneiro has been honing his craft on the regional circuit. In an attempt to reinvent himself, Carneiro started by packing on a bit of muscle to make the move from a 170 pound welterweight to the physically imposing 185 pound middleweight we have today. Furthermore, the Brazilian's kickboxing is much more efficacious since his return thus enabling him to transition into takedown attempts. The aforementioned alterations have transformed "Jucao" into a bonafide threat outside of the previous "takedown or bust" scenario he was in before.

With the progress that Brunson has made it will be interesting to see how this new version of Carneiro fares. How will the Brazilian handle his first upper-echelon challenge since the transformation. Basically, I do not believe that it matters whether or not we get the new or the old Carneiro this weekend. I say this because I am of the opinion that the North Carolina native has the potential to crack the top five this year and potentially make a real run at the 185 pound strap if everything goes well. Ultimately I envision a 32-year-old physical specimen lighting up a much slower competitor generally being just too dynamic for the veteran to deal with. With excellent takedown defense, Brunson will stuff all of Carneiro'snshots with relative ease en route to dismantling the Brazilian with a quick and brutal late first-round knockout victory.

Prediction: Derek Brunson via first-round knockout (head-kick)
 
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UGHHH just saw that this was another Sunday card. I hate sunday cards.
 
Garbrant -360 vs. Mendes +300

Training with the team of Pitbull's at Sacramento's Team Alpha Male facility, the young Cody Garbrant is one of the more promising bantamweight contenders in the UFC today. A former All-American wrestler in high school -- with a bit of college wrestling to boot -- the 24-year-old prospect would eschew the grappling arts to pursue a career in the sweet science of boxing. As an amateur pugilist, Cody compiled a stellar 32-1 record before making the transition exclusively to mixed martial arts. Now 7-0 with two UFC performances under his belt, he looks to take a big leap up in competition and make a statement with a win over the Brazilian bruiser that is Jon Lineker. To have success against the Brazilian, Cody is going to have to put his compet fisticuffs to good use and employee a bit of his wrestling to keep the Brazilian off balance. A dynamic athlete, Cody has the potential to achieve exactly this and if he fights more he can win this fight.

The Ohioan is a expert marksman from the fringe and as his record indicates he is a big finisher having slept six of his seven opponents. Working behind a ramrod left jab from the orthodox stance, Garbrant throws punches in bunches and instinctively retracts his hands to protect his chin after each flurry. An educated striker, Garbrant is fundamentally sound in his technique though he has shown a penchant to be lured into the occasional brawl which is something he must resist versus his new opponent as he must remain poised at all times. There is a fine line between confidence and hubris and the latter will get you tapped and/or choked out if you eschew the fundamentals and go off the reservation.

Legacy Fighting Championship veteran, Mendes was originally scheduled to make his octagon debut at UFC Fight Night in Boston in January but was forced off of the card with an injury. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu juggernaut will get his chance to make that promotional debut after-all -- albeit on extremely short notice -- after John Lineker was forced to withdraw due to the mosquito-bite generated tropical illness dengue fever. The 32-year-old "Tanquinho" enters the Octagon as one of the most accomplished Jiu-Jitsu players in the sport having won numerous world titles in both gi and no-gi competition. Having made the transition exclusively to mixed martial arts a bit late in his career, the Brazilian has been phenomenal no less as he is flawless in all five outings. Indeed "Tanquinho" has been barn-storming his way through the regional circuit securing all five of his professional victories before the start of the third round. While the Brazilian is a world-class talent on the mat, his striking is far less impressive. That said, I am being kind when I say that it is underwhelming. A work in progress, Mendes is basically using what little rudimentary stand up he does have as a smokescreen to get his opponent comfortable just long enough for him to shoot in for the takedown. Right now, Tanquinho's entire game revolves around him getting the fight to the floor or bust. Make no mistake, if he is incapable of grounding his man in the UFC he is going to get chewed up and spit out rather quickly.

The breakdown on this matchup is simple, if Mendes cannot find a way to bring Cody to the floor and work his magic he is going to get tuned up on the feet. Essentially, unless Cody gets over aggressive and puts himself out of position allowing the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Master to bring him to the mat, this is his fight to lose. Don't get it twisted though, it takes one split-second momentary lapse in technique and Mendes will burst through that door like gangbusters and dive-bomb on a leg or take the back where he can end the tilt with a submission just as sudden as a knockout. Ultimately however I anticipate that the Team Alpha Male product will be able to use his stellar athleticism and wrestling in reverse to remain upright and pick the Brazilian apart en-route to a clear-cut unanimous decision or knockout victory.

Prediction: Garbrant via knock out (round two)
 
Mkdess / EZ

Saw where you were discussing Murphy/Faszholz

You both are right about Faszholz being fade material and I have an article about it I will post in just a second

I was actually saying I think her +3.5 is worth a stab as I think she starts strong but fades. Playing her pts handicap then hedging with Murphy rd 2 and Murphy rd 3 is how I'm playing it. I see Fasholz starting out well but tiring as she has before and Murphy taking over.
 
Dennis Bermudez 14-5 vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri 35-8-2

Dennis Bermudez -345 vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri +315​

New York brawler and all-around bruiser Dennis Bermudez is a prototypical wrestle/boxer who has shown to have a indomitable will to walk through fire to get the victory. An All-American High School wrestler who competed collegially for Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania, Bermudez was the runner-up on the 14th installment of the long running reality series The Ultimate Fighter. Having gone on to have a successful post "TUF" career, the former contestant is currently the #9 ranked Featherweight in the UFC with a stellar 7-3 record inside the octagon. What's more, many of those victories came against top-flight competition including wins over Max Holloway, Clay Guida, and Jimmy Hettes among others. Unfortunately though, Bermudez is currently on a two fight losing streak and in desperate need of a win.

A serviceable striker Bermudez transitions seamlessly from striking into his takedown attempts. Owning a solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game to compliment his elite wresting game, the "Long Island MMA" product is ferocious in a superior position on the mat. Be it copious amounts of punches and elbows from on top or a threat to lock up a submission, Bermudez is tough to deal with on the ground. That said, perhaps "The Menace's" most formidable asset is his conditioning. Always in peak physical condition, Bermudez is capable of fighting at a full on sprint for fifteen minutes.. Optimum conditioning -- along with his intangible to fight through adversity -- has helped to propel Bermudez to the winners circle in the past when he found himself outmatched in a skill-for-skill basis. Specifically this was demonstrated in his barnburners with Holloway and Grice respectively. He will bring this into every fight which consistently makes him a tough out for anyone.

The underdog in this match in Tatsuya Kawajiri is a legend in mixed martial arts and an absolute tank of a man. The Japanese native made his mark in the vaunted PRIDE organization and was for a long time one of the best fighters not on the UFC roster. Fighting in virtually every organization in existence, "Crusher" has competed successfully in myriad organizations and is the former Shooto Lightweight Champion. The rare wrestle/boxer from Japan, Kawajiri has a serviceable stand up game but predominantly excels on the canvas where he can work his ground-and-pound or look for the submission. Having competed for nearly 16 years now, Kawajiri is as seasoned of a veteran as you get and has seen it all. Having said that, at 37 years old with 45 matches on his resume, the grizzled veteran has racked up a ton of mileage on the chassis and at some point is going to break down.

Currently it's hard to tell how much the old war horse has left in the tank, but he has already surpassed most expectations having been victorious in three of his four octagon appearances. Moreover, since making the drop to Featherweight in 2011, Kawajiri has won six of seven and in the process reinvigorated his previously stagnant career. Having cracked the UFC's top 10 in the Featherweight division, a victory over Bermudez would put "Crusher" within a hairsbreadth of a title shot as incredible as that sounds.

This is an intriguing match of us we have two big boned Neanderthals smashing into each other like two trains on the same track. It will be interesting to see who is the stronger man and who is able to implement their will upon the other. As strong as Kawajiri is, I think Berrmudez is his equal only with better wrestling and far less miles I won the fight odometer. Though he will give a valiant effort, the Japanese legend will come up short in this contest as the younger man puts a pace on him that he just can't handle.

Prediction: Bermudez via UD.
 
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Camozzi vs Riggs

-250, +230

At 6'3" tall Chris Camozzi is a very long, rangy, imposing middleweight who gives a lot of lower level fighters trouble because of his size and ability to fight long. Traditionally though, the FactoryX Muay Thai product has only been successful against the lower tier of the division. Ostensibly, Camozzi is a poor man's Michael Bisping in that both are pillow fisted kick boxers with excellent conditioning. Rarely mixing things up, Camozzi employs the same bread-and-butter kickboxing attacked each time out where he will use his long reach to bust his opponent from the fringe and his protracted height to work them over in the Thai-Clinch. Rinse. Wash. Repeat for fifteen minutes. As ueventful as it is, it doesn't mean that it isn't effective because for the most part Camozzi has made it work well enough to be employed by the most preeminent mixed martial arts organization in the world. What Camozzi brings to the table with this striking attack is a long straight jab and a thudding body kick with the rear leg. Additionally, the Colorado based fighter has solid takedown defense and is a Brazilian Jiu Brown-Belt with a decent submissions attack. Ultimately though, if Camozzi is to win a fight it is generally going to be by a decision given that five of his seven UFC victories have came via the aforementioned method.

In the opposite corner you have the virtual Frankenstein that is Joe Riggs somehow competing in his 58th professional mixed martial arts bout. Seemingly held together by duct tape and glue, "Diesel" has undergone no more significant surgeries then Evel Knievel and Hulk Hogan combined. As such, the 33-year-old fighter's body is extremely fragile and he has been increasingly in active through the years due to repeated injuries. Nevertheless, Riggs is still a threat for most fighters outside the top ten given his ability to strike and grapple at an elite level. An excellent wrestle-boxer, "Diesel" integrates his wrestling and striking together exceptionally well transitioning from striking combinations into double-leg takedowns with fluidity. The only problem is that Riggs cannot fight like this for fifteen minutes as a result of his shopworn body. Therefore what you get from the MMA Lab product is intermittent glimpses of excellence followed up with mediocrity on between. At any rate, Riggs is fundamentally sound on the feet and is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt who can handle himself admirably on the mat.

Right now it's difficult to tell exactly how much Joe has left in the tank and what he can offer. Even though his last fight was a bizarre victory -- winning due to an illegal up kick -- Riggs was looking better than he had in a long time. In fact Diesel" was working over a strong competitor in Ron Stallings before the foul. That was Riggs move back to the 185 pounds division where I believe he is best suited. If we get the same Riggs this weekend that we got against Stallings, this fight becomes a real coin flip. That said, I have absolutely no faith in Riggs having any semblance of consistency at this stage of his career. Summarily I lean much more towards the 29-year-old Camozzi doing what he does best and out pointing the veteran en-route to winning a humdrum unanimous decision.

Prediction: Christopher Allen Camozzi via decision
 
James Krause (22-7) vs. Shane Campbell (12-3)

Campbell +135 Krause -145​

Former Canadian Muay-Thai Champion and K-1 Kickboxing veteran Shane Campbell makes his return to the octagon this weekend where he will work to build off of his victory over Elias Silverio. Entering this fight with a 12-3 record having one seven of his past nine outings, The victory over Silverio was his first as a ZUFFA employee. A big 155 pounder, Campbell is an aggressive striker who uses his robust 6 foot tall frame and spindly 71 inch reach to his advantage as he fires out a frozen rope of a jab with vicious combinations behind it including barbarous kicks to all levels. Specifically, Campbell likes to throw the kick to the body and target the liver where he is an absolute marksman. Additionally, he has a brutal step-in knee to the abdomen which deters the opposition from taking him down. With a 62-9 record in Muay-Thai kickboxing, the efficacy of the 29-year-olds striking game is readily apparent. As dangerous as he is on the feet, the Canadians one major flaw remains his takedown defense. Often finding himself too far upright, "Shaolin" gives his opponent the opportunity to get in on his hips and bring him to the mat where they can exploit his ground game. Having said that, Campbell does own a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt so it isn't sieve he is a complete novice on the map. Moreover, Campbell has an active offensive guard game with very mobile hips as he is either working to set up a submission or else tie his opponent up where he can scramble back to his feet. At any rate, Campbell is competent across the board and isn't a mark anywhere.

The favorite coming into this match according to the bookies is the Factory X Muay-Thai representative James Krause. Also coming off of a victory that he hopes to build on Krause quite possibly performed better than ever the last time we saw him as he ran roughshod over a highly talented Daron Cruickshank. With a diverse attack Krause stood with the Tae-Kwon-Do expert just long enough to enter in the clinch where he then swept him off his feet with a gorgeous throw/trip and finished him on the canvas with a rear naked choke. This fight was an excellent illustration of the 29-year-olds versatility. An extremely long and rangy 155 pound fighter, Krause's 6'2" height and 73" reach are hurdles for nearly anyone in the lightweight division to overcome. Excellent from the fringe or in close with his striking, Krause has a vast repertoire of attacks in his arsenal that are difficult for anyone outside of the top 10 to deal with. Throwing a laser-esque jab from a distance followed up with crisp punching combinations and blistering kicks to all levels, Krause is an absolute technician in the kickboxing department. As dangerous as he is when the fight is vertical, the Newport News, Virginia native is quite possibly even more so as a grappler. With a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Krause has fourteen career submissions and is excellent from both the guard and top position. In fact, the thirty-fight veteran is probably more effective from his back given that he owns seven submission finishes via triangle choke. All told, Krause is formidable wherever the match takes place with his only major liability being that he suffers from an occasional lack of volume. Often looking for the perfect shot, Krause will sometimes appear apathetic and disinterested making it difficult for the judges to award him rounds which is something that bettors must consider.

In what on paper appears to be a fight between two high-level kickboxers, these expectations usually end up taking a 180° turn from what's expected. Having said that, I anticipate this tilt to be no different and expect to see Krause go to the one discipline that separates these two which is his wrestling ability. Indeed, the veteran mixed martial artist is a serviceable wrestler whose takedown capacity is definitely at a high enough level to ground the kickboxing juggernaut that is Campbell. Look for Krause to play around on the feet just long enough to make Campbell feel comfortable before shooting in and taking him to the mat where he can implement his dynamic submission grappling game.

Prediction: Krauss via submission (RNC)
 
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Sean Strickland +100 vs. Alex Garcia -110


Former King of the Cage champion -- an all around versatile mixed martial artist --Sean Strickland makes return to the cage this weekend. A solid striker with excellent grappling, Strickland is a dynamic athlete who flows from technique-to-technique with fluidity. Owning a sterling 16-1 record, the 24-year-old prospect is making his third showing in the 170 pound division after competing as a middleweight for the first fifteen fights of his career. A competent kickboxer the young prospect has seven career knockouts on his resume and a plethora of first-round finishes via strikes. While efficient with his handiwork, Strickland may be even more dangerous on the mat where he can put his brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to use. Bringing copious amounts of punishment in the form of punches and elbows to his grounded adversary, Strickland forces his opponents to make a mistake so that he can capitalize with a fight ending submission. Specifically "Tarzan" is great at scrambling to his opponents back and procuring a fight ending rear naked choke in which he owns four of. At any rate, Strickland is a highly competent mixed martial artist who is able to win the fight wherever it takes place and with excellent conditioning he will be there until the final bell.

Explosive Dominican mixed martial artist Alex Garcia makes his way back to the cage this weekend after a protracted seven month layoff following a victory over UFC veteran Mike Swick in July 2015. Garcia, 28, had his 6-fight winning streak snapped and suffered his first loss inside the octagon prior to getting back in the win column over Swick when the ultra active Neil Magny took the Tristar project to the woodshed. In the loss to Magny at UFC on FOX 49 Garcia suffered a Torn ACL and Torn Meniscus in the opening stanza which put him on the shelf for a year.. The Domincan dynamo is a tank of a man who likes to use his strength and athleticism to bully his man around the cage. A big finisher, ten of Garcia's thirteen career victories are stoppages. With quick and heavy hands, Garcia has the potential to put any man too bad if he connects cleanly. That said, the Dominican Republic native is absolutely deadly when the fight hits the floor and -- like his opponent Strickland -- he has a special knack at taking his opponents back and finishing them with the rear naked choke. With a 3-1 record since making his UFC debut in 2013 Garcia remains to be One of the more promising welterweights on the roster. However, The heavily muscled fighter has historically been vulnerable in the cardio department in tilts that have gone past the opening stanza so that bears watching.

Though Garcia is a better all-around fighter with the more versatile skill-set, if Strickland is able to weather the early storm he'll be in a great position to leave victorious. With his excellent conditioning, Strickland will be in the driver seat in the latter two frames of the bout and as long as he puts out a decent amount of volume to score points in rounds two and three, I believe that he can win a decision or even stop a fatigued Garcia late in the fight.

Prediction: Sean Strickland via TKO (r3)
 
Anthony Smith (24-11 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Leonardo Augusto Leleco (11-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Smith -140 vs. Guimaraes +130​


Stepping in on short notice for Trevor Smith, Anthony Smith makes his much earned return to the UFC the weekend. After competing just one time in the octagon and losing to submission specialist Antonio Braga Neto, the UFC chose to part ways with the Strikeforce and Bellator veteran. Falling short in his initial outing outside of the UFC, "Lionheart" went on to mow down his next seven consecutive opponents. A versatile mixed martial artist, Smith has 22 finishes with an equal 11 coming via submission and knock out respectively. At 6'3" tall with a 77 1/2 inch reach, Smith is a long and rangy 185 pounds lighter. A Muay-Thai striker, Smith is savage in the clinch as he lets loose with an array of tight slicing elbows and copious knees to his opponent's abdomen. From the fringe, the 27-year-old uses his gangly reach to throw a looping left hook and a quick overhand right which are accentuated with kicks to all levels.

Entering in his UFC debut on the heels of a seven-fight win streak comes Brazil's' Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes. Better known as "Leleco" the Brazilian has finished nine of his eleven victories with six coming via submission and the other three by knockout. The only bout that he has failed to finish in those last six occasions -- save for a No Contest -– was a battle against 2-fight UFC vet Richardson "Monstro" Moreira in which he was awarded a win via split decision. Guimaraes is a submission grappler with a pretty tight Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game though he has a mediocre wrestling attack which limits his use of it at times. Accordingly, while Guimaraes was able to carve his way through a veritable grocery aisle of tomato cans on the regional circuit in Brazil, when he faced off against an upper-echelon talent in 'Monstro' he failed to hit the same easy takedowns he had been accustomed to getting. Worse still, the striking from the UFC debutante is even more raw as he hangs his hands and charges in recklessly slinging wild overhand rights with his chin both straight in the air when he attacks. Consequently, this leaves him ripe to be countered. While he appears to have a bit of potential to work with, right now 'Leleco's' overall MMA game is just too green to be at the UFC level and if he hasn't progress exponentially I believe that he will have a short lifespan inside the octagon.

In their match up Smith will enjoy a 4 inch advantage in the height and reach department respectively while being the far more diverse combatant. Additionally, the American is quite athletic with excellent footwork and will likely be able to thwart the takedown attempts from his Brazilian adversary. Even showed the absolute worst happen and smith be taken down by the Brazilian, I believe that his defense of grab flame is good enough to stave off any submission and allow him to work back to his feet where he maintains a marked edge. This bout has all the makings of a triumphant return to the big leagues for Smith as I envision him using his long reach to remain outside of the Brazilians grasp while busting him up on the feet before ultimately handing out a free nap in the form of a highlight reel right-hand.

prediction, Anthony Smith via knock out (round one)
 
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Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) Marion Reneau (6-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC)

Reneau -165 Ashlee Evans-Smith +175

Two years ago Marion Reneau made her promotional debut on short notice against Alexis Dufresne at UFC 182 where she was pegged a significant underdog and at 37 years old expected to get dusted quickly. Incidentally, the high level MT striker had other ideas and instead of burst on the same making a splash and prove that with her age is in the just a number. Looking absolutely nowhere near her listed age of 37, she took Dufresne apart piece by piece en route to a one sided unanimous decision victory and then to show it wasn't a fluke in her ensuing octagon outing she polished off the #9 ranked -- at the time -- Jessica Andrade with a triangle choke in the first round. coming off of a wall to champion Holly Holm, Reneau will work to return to her killer form she showed me before dropping only her second career fight. Hey black belt in Brazilian jujitsu and a Light blue / dark blue belt in Muay Thai under Rafael Cordeiro, she is effective across the board. Very athletic, Marianne has quick powerful hands with nimble footwork and excellent head movement to evade incoming fire. The dynamic striker has a brilliant counter-right hand and a voluminous kicking game. The meanest gym teacher in North America is a terrific mixed martial artist and with her outstanding cardio she is going to be a tough out for anyone.

Coming to him off of a loss to ultra tough female fighter Raquel Pennington in her octagon debut, Ashley Evans Smith looks to right the ship this weekend in more ways than one. That is to say, not only did Smith lose in her last outing but afterward she tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs which has put her on the shelf for the last year. Stroller for the weight class, Evans-Smith comes from I wrestling background and she likes to implement it on her opponent. Though her wrestling is her best, she lacks in all other areas of the score striking I am strike team defense is mediocre. In order to find success in her upcoming fight against Marian, she will need to put her wrestling skills to use and keep her foot on the gas pedal not allowing the Muay Thai specialist to get in a groove and put her hands on her. Whether or not she is capable of such a task remains to be seen.

Wrestling and forward momentum will be the object of for the 27-year-old Smith as she will work to put Marianne on her back and work her over. One paper Smith has all the skills to do but in practice I don't believe that it will happen. With just four professional fights to her name -- including a victory over the hyper polarizing transgender fighter Fallon Fox which for all intents and purposes put Evans-Smith on the map -- she fared far worse in her amateur showings going 5-4 and nine matches. Worse still, those opponents whom she dropped her fights to have a paltry combined record of 2-4 overall. Consequently, unless Smith has progressed significantly in her mixed martial arts absence, I anticipate the athletic Reneau to light her up on the feet and stuff her takedowns where she will ultimately find a finish late in the second or early third round with a barrage of strikes up against the fence forcing referee intervention.

Prediction: Reneau via strikes (round three)
 
Kelly Faszholz (3-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) Lauren Murphy (8-2 MMA, 0-2 UFC)

Murphy -315, Faszholz +300,


Returning to the octagon this weekend is 32-year-old Alaskan native Lauren Murphy. Coming in off of a pair of losses to Liz Carmouche and Sarah McMann, the former Invicta Bantamweight champion finds herself in desperate need of victory. The MMA Lab is a hard-nosed pugnacious grinder who likes to take her opponents to the floor and press them up against the cage where she can implement her will on them. A good wrestler, Murphy employs heavy ground and pound from top position and is a high volume striker that refuses to let her opponent rest. With a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, she is a competent grappling specialist though she hasn't shown to be a submission threat. Instead of searching for the submission Murphy uses her ground acumen to maintain superior position and grind on her adversary. The problem with Murphy however has been that she lacks any sort of a striking game and when facing top ranked opposition she just doesn't have enough skills to win the day.

Stepping in on short notice for but injured Sarah Moras in the women's bantamweight bout is The relatively inexperienced Kelly Faszholz. With only three professional mixed martial arts fights, Kelly is undefeated and was the 145 pounds Featherweight champion in the Texas based Fight to Win (F2W) promotion. Coming off a rear-naked choke victory over Brittney Elkin at Prize Fighting Championship 12 in November, Faszholz notched her third consecutive submission finish. Originally having made her professional fighting debut in 2013, the fighter from Santa Monica, California engaged in a 25-month hiatus from the sport. Faszholz returned in 2015, competing twice.

Training out of notable Nor-Cal Fighting Alliance Faszholz is a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under former UFC middleweight title contender David Terrell. Obviously there isn't a ton of footage on Faszholz at this point but from what I've seen she is a work in progress who is still extremely raw in everything she does. On the feet she is ostensibly a brawler who rushes in swinging wild rights and lefts generally looking to lock up with her opponent where she will push them up against the cage or shoot in to take them down. Ultimately, the game plan for Faszholz is to get a hold of her opponent and take them to the mat where she can work her ground game.

From everything that I have seen this works to be a lamb to the slaughter for the experienced Murphy. Although Faszholz is a credentialed Jiu-Jitsu player from a good camp, there isn't much else she does correct and even on the mat she often loses her position due to poor technique. What's more, Faszholz's conditioning is shaky due to her throwing every strike with maximum power. Moreover, not only will Faszholz potentially become overwhelmed by the octagon experience, but she has never faced even the slightest bit of stiff competition. Specifically, of all the opposition she has faced on the regional circuit, they have a combined 4-8 win/loss record. Unless Murphy comes in out of shape and highly unmotivated, there is very little way that I see her losing this fight. Not only does Faszholz exhibit questionable cardio issues, but she is making a short notice debut and cutting down from her normal 145 pound fight weight to do so. This looks to be for all intents and purposes a straightforward pick and Murphy should cruise.

Prediction: Murphy via TKO (r1)
 
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Fucking hell. I'm up at 8am in Asia because I thought it was a Saturday night card. God damn these Sunday night cards...
 
Jonavin Webb / Nathan

Coy +235 Webb -255

A pupil of mixed martial arts legend -- and Brazilian jujitsu family royalty -- Renzo Gracie comes New Jersey native Jonavin Webb. A standout high school wrestler who would go on to compete at the collegiate level, the 26-year-old Webb eschewed his wrestling career to pursue a profession in mixed martial arts. Training with the Gracies since he was a senior in high school, Webb's wrestling background allowed him to make a smooth transition to the "gentle art" which today is an integral part of his repertoire. Quick on the feet, Webb has a really good double leg takedown that he hits in the middle of the cage. Once he has his opponent on their back Webb becomes an extremely aggressive and opportunistic grappler. Flowing from submission attempt to submission attempt on the mat, the Philadelphia based fighter will attack the legs or any other limb left out with ferocity. Though a bit unkempt in the his striking technique, web has good footwork to go with his fast and heavy hands. In particular, the former Cage Fury FC welterweight champion has hey fighting overhand right and a robust left hook that he lands with conviction. Webb's main vulnerability however is not in his skill set but rather his size as he is a very small 170 pound fighter who would probably be better suited is competing at the 155 pound division. Save for his consistent disadvantage in the size department, Webb is a nice prospect who is likely to stay around the UFC for sometime.

Veteran mixed martial artist Nathan Coy finally made his UFC debut as a 37-year-old last year on short notice after a long career bouncing around the regional circuit. Unfortunately however, his long awaited Octagon debut was relatively short lived as he was submitted by English prospect Danny Roberts in the opening minutes of the fight. Currently on a two fight losing streak -- having been finished in both losses --the nine year veteran is a bit long in the tooth and likely too far past his prime to make any considerable impact in the UFC at this stage of his career. Nevertheless, what you have in Coy is a well-rounded fighter who has seen it all and is competent across the board and all disciplines. A meat-and-potatoes style fighter, The American Top Team representative was a division one wrestling ace at Oregon State University and he brings that grinding style to the cage. A serviceable striker, Coy uses a long straight jab and looping overhand right to enter in the clinch which is where he wants to be. Making the most of his long and strong frame, Coy is best when he is engaging his opponent in telephone booth range utilizing dirty boxing and just wearing on them. Once his man is tired you will often see the cagey veteran look for a trip take down where he can work them over from top position.

Big for the weight class, Coy he likes to drag his opponent into a war of attrition where he will break them down over the course of the match. This could be disconcerting for the smallish 170 pound Webb if he is unable to extricate himself from the clutches of the former All-American Oregon State wrestler. At times we saw the much larger Kyle Noke have success by out powering Webb when they were locked up and prior to coming to the UFC veteran fighter Lyman Good presented Webb with similar trouble. Nevertheless, I don't believe that Webb will allow himself to be "wall-and-stalled" by Coy and he will avoid it with his nimble footwork and own wrestling skill. Basically I anticipate a much younger and more athletic Webb to dance circles around the older flat-footed Coy until ultimately the "Spyder" lands something heavy on the feet. Following a clean connection with a left hook or overhand right Webb either starches the veteran immediately or pounces on him as he is discombobulated to get the submission finish.

Prediction: Webb via RNC
 
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Man, I love all of your picks besides Strickland. If you are right, I'm having a good night!
 
Sarafian Vs. Bamgbose

Bamgbose +170 Sarafian -193

A finalist on the inaugural season of "The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil" reality series, the 5'9" fire hydrant that is Daniel Sarafian returns to the cage this weekend. A long time student of traditional martial arts, the Brazilian began exploring various disciplines as as a five-year-old kid and gradually progressed into the full-fledged professional mixed martial artist we have today. One of the most diverse competitors on the UFC roster, Daniel has a background in boxing and karate and is a high level black belt in judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu respectively. Constructed like a Sherman tank, the thickset Brazilian bruiser has excellent takedown defense which is augmented by a low center of gravity and his stellarJudo base. As a result, this allows him to dictate where the flight takes place on most occasions. The owner of a fundamentally sound striking game, Sarafian has power in all limbs and is athletic enough to attempt the occasional flying knee which was what what flatlined Sergio Moraes on the show. The winner of multiple BJJ tournaments, it is on the mat where the Brazilian is at his best as he owns seven of his nine career victories via submission. In sum, Sarafian can handle himself wherever the fight takes place, and now that he is training with a stellar team of partners at Arizona's burgeoning Power MMA facility -- with Coach Aaron Simpson and teammates Ryan Bader and CB Dollaway --'the Brazilian will likely progress exponentially throughout the next couple of years.

Returning to the octagon after suffering his first career loss to Uriah Hall in a short notice UFC debut, Oluwale Bamgbose will attempt to right the ship with a big win over another formidable opponent in Sarafian. Following a failed initial showing, the Nigerian-American prospect should look considerably better in his sophomore effort now that he has been afforded a full training camp. Given the fact that he has had the luxury of a full training camp behind him this time. The former Ring of Combat middleweight champion, Bamgbose was likely rushed onto the big stage a bit too soon last time out. Still a very raw fighter, Bamgbose only had five fights to his name at the time he was called up to the major leagues. Never the less, what you get in the middle way prospect is a extremely athletic individual with quick twitch muscles and Per Mrs. power in his hands. The emphasis on hand power is not an oversimplification as Bamgbose has only shown to be a boxer at this stage of his career. A mixed martial arts novice, Bamgbose has relied almost exclusively on his athletic ability to win fights thus far in the cage. Unfortunately athleticism in and of itself is not enough when facing the upper-echelon middleweights of the world. Talented as he is, the 28-year-old fighter is still too green to be facing off against someone the caliber of Sarafian. What's more, Bamgbose appears to have a conditioning problem which is common among heavily muscled individuals. Historically after an opening salvo where he explodes into everything he throws, Bamgbose slows down considerably. Once again, this is something that will not be tolerated at this level.

Thoughts on the match-up are that Sarafian survived early scare from the New York native after getting stung with something heavy in the opening minutes of action but relies on his veteran savvy to remain coherent and in the fight. After tasting Bamgbose's power early the Brazilian wastes absolutely no more time on the feet and goes to his grappling roots where he puts the greenhorn on his back and finishes him off with an arm-triangle.

Prediction: Sarafian via submission (arm-triangle round one)
 
Man, I love all of your picks besides Strickland. If you are right, I'm having a good night!

Thanks O, and I am actually (you will be happy to hear) starting to lean towards Garcia and I am actually even considering placing a bet on him after doing a bit more research… I will probably end up changing my pic… All I'm waiting to see is the weigh-ins to make sure Garcia hits the correct way and works all right doing so.
 
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