1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Jan 8, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    yes, i have that. small on hamilton, small on o1.5
     
  2. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    anyone have leans on event-props? (o/u dec, ko, sub, etc) or fotn? sad cowboy vs cowboy only +250 for fotn
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,852
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    I would never pay personally. That's just me. But you seriously cannot lump Barry and MMAGF in together. One knows his stuff and the other...is Barry.

    Edit: Holy shit I am blind. I totally missed what you were doing there. Wow.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2016
  4. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    can you guys believe the LACK of movement on reneau vs evans-smith? it literally went to -175 on reneau within minutes of opener like a week ago, and it has not BUDGED A CENT.. is just NO ONE betting this one?
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,852
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    I think it's a combination of things personally. First, if the names aren't Rousey, Holm (now), Tate, JJ, Cyborg and maybe a couple others the casual bettor steers clear of WMMA. So it's just us lunatics (ha ha) really delving into a fight like this. That eliminates a lot of action. Then I think once it settled it's priced about right. So just not a ton of value. Only bet I have is the Reneau sub prop at +300 since I think it should be priced maybe +200 to +240.
     
  6. iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,728
    Likes Received:
    10
    this is very true but im not gonna lie, ive made some nice coin fading Barry lol. only the end result matters, right?
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    yea that's all i have. reneau sub +320
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Yeah guessing what mkess said rings true. WMMA scaring people off. All the media predictions i've seen have picked Reneau, was sure her line would move cause of that, but guess not
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Gonna play Cowboy vs Cowboy for FOTN at those odds for sure. Don't like any event props for this card
     
  10. Johananwtf White Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2015
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wow Ashlee Evans-Smith is hot! Watched some footage of her, knocked out in 5 seconds and submitted pretty fast. Reneau should have this one pretty easy ?
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    so cowboy's been finished 3x. in 35 pro fights. all 3 were in rd 1. just saying... (oliveira rd 1 +1173)
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,852
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Yep already hit that one. Great odds esp because you can add to what you said that Brazilian Cowboy comes out guns blazing. Odds are he doesn't get the early finish and tires out and Cerrone takes over but with these odds it's almost a must pseudo-hedge for bets on Cerrone.
     
  13. Johananwtf White Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2015
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    0
    Nice! Going to hit that one
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    I'm doing o5.5 DEC and up with a possible pseudo-hedge on exactly 5 decisions at +321



    Also gone with Bermudez fotn +850
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,852
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    I took a flyer on Fasholz/Murphy at +1350. Fasholz is raw but comes out guns blazing and I think can get some things done early. But she looks like she can't keep it up more than a round or a little more so Murphy will probably take over after that (assuming Murphy doesn't land big counters early and get Fasholz out of there). I figure if Fasholz can look good for a round but Murphy takes over and lights her up late this could win it on a card without many other appealing options. Plus it's at +1350 so sweet payout if it hits.
     
  16. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    webb no scorecards down to -450 from -800.. when's last time coy finished anyone...
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    bingo. i have 5u on cerrone, so that's exactly what this is, in lieu of just hedging
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    man i see a lot of finishes here, but the lines reflect that, i guess.. 13 fight card, yet O5.5 is even $..

    heard, gonna pass on that one, but i get it
     
  19. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    6,498
    Likes Received:
    63
    I see some finishes, too. But it's a 13 fight card that is supposedly in a big cage. I remember reading a stat that mentioned 60% of all fights in the big cage go to decision. Ofc there are many factors at play and those numbers are about 2 years old, but I still think it holds weight. I've also hit the last 2 oX.X props in big cage events, even hitting some of the +200/+300 ones

    I'll take my chances
     
  20. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2011
    Messages:
    6,613
    Likes Received:
    60
    Location:
    Canada
    I'm on O5.5 decisions, the first 3 fights could easily go decision then you need 3 more in 10 fights. I see brunson and cody fight probably going itd and sarafien fight going ITD for sure but other then that others could easily decision
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.