Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

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After Lineker/Rivera I don't really know what to do with Lineker. If his game plan is rock em sock em then literally any outcome is possible. I might just look to livebet Cody after r1.

I hope UFC does something clever with the Cowboy v. Cowboy matchup lolz.

As far as early leans I really like Camozzi if we can get him around -150 or a pickem would be amazing. Camozzi is pretty reliable and his record looks worse than it is as he dropped some very close decisions. Riggs body is so much older than his years so he is complete fade material at this point.
 
Its hard t be confident in the garb kid when he was so hesitant fighting briones if u were to substitute lineker for briones in that fight lineker would have won for sure. I do understand that hes a talented kid I just don't know where his head will be at and I know what im getting with lineker a guy with big balls
 
This is a pretty shitty card fan-wise and betting-wise for me. The best fight is Garbrandt vs Lineker and 2ndly the Cowboy vs Cowboy matchup for novelty purposes.

And as far as betting goes, I don't have a single person I feel excited about to bet on this one. I would believe that at least 3/4th of everyone on this entire card will be washed out of the UFC. Bum city pretty much.
 
Similar to Roy vs. Rosholt, I think people are being reactive with Lineker and Garbrandt. Weren't most people on Rivera against Lineker? I don't know how Garbrandt has a worse chance than Rivera. He fights a lot more conservative (which is good against Lineker), has just as sharp of striking, and he's got the wrestling chops. I think this is an even fight at worst.

Point taken, but:

There are a lot of factors that favor Lineker in this fight. Lineker has the reach advantage. Lineker has an enormous experience advantage. Garbrandt tends to brawl too much, which is exactly what Lineker wants. Lineker has a ridiculous chin, while Garbrandt has been KO'd by punches as an ammy. Garbrandt's team is in shambles and he hasn't had Benavidez or Dillashaw to train with for this camp. He has no head coach.
 
This is a pretty shitty card fan-wise and betting-wise for me. The best fight is Garbrandt vs Lineker and 2ndly the Cowboy vs Cowboy matchup for novelty purposes.

And as far as betting goes, I don't have a single person I feel excited about to bet on this one. I would believe that at least 3/4th of everyone on this entire card will be washed out of the UFC. Bum city pretty much.

i disagree, i actually think i have like 6+ good, strong leans for this card. rather not say a few of them until the lines open. when they do, i'll be happy to share, hehe
 
Point taken, but:

There are a lot of factors that favor Lineker in this fight. Lineker has the reach advantage. Lineker has an enormous experience advantage. Garbrandt tends to brawl too much, which is exactly what Lineker wants. Lineker has a ridiculous chin, while Garbrandt has been KO'd by punches as an ammy. Garbrandt's team is in shambles and he hasn't had Benavidez or Dillashaw to train with for this camp. He has no head coach.

not too concerned with garbrandt being tko'd as an amateur, but i agree, alpha male is in shambles and lineker is definitely the deserving favorite here.

garbrandt will be like 5" taller, for the record, too.. but i know you mentioned lineker has the reach (where are you seeing that, btw? ufc site or something?)
 
not too concerned with garbrandt being tko'd as an amateur, but i agree, alpha male is in shambles and lineker is definitely the deserving favorite here.

garbrandt will be like 5" taller, for the record, too.. but i know you mentioned lineker has the reach (where are you seeing that, btw? ufc site or something?)
Wikipedia
 
not too concerned with garbrandt being tko'd as an amateur

Not tko'd. KTFO'd stiff by a right hand on the chin. It was just less than four years ago. Brutal shot.
 
i disagree, i actually think i have like 6+ good, strong leans for this card. rather not say a few of them until the lines open. when they do, i'll be happy to share, hehe

You think we're watched?

Agree i got some strong leans.
 
Point taken, but:

There are a lot of factors that favor Lineker in this fight. Lineker has the reach advantage. Lineker has an enormous experience advantage. Garbrandt tends to brawl too much, which is exactly what Lineker wants. Lineker has a ridiculous chin, while Garbrandt has been KO'd by punches as an ammy. Garbrandt's team is in shambles and he hasn't had Benavidez or Dillashaw to train with for this camp. He has no head coach.

Throwing in the KO as an ammy is like throwing in Lineker getting subbed by Gaudinot in a fight where the striking was pretty even. There are a lot of other fights to go by instead. I disagree with you on Garbrandt brawling. His critique has been the opposite - that he's tentative. The team thing I won't disagree with, but Alpha Male has talent there to train with. I just see this fight being very competitive.
 
You think we're watched?

Agree i got some strong leans.
Always wondered this myself. If Jack Slack apparently lurks here, who else is out there? lol

So I fucked up not doing a round robin parlay for NJ FOX card few weeks ago when so many strong leans hit, but i'm thinking of doing one here since there are a lot of lines i'm looking forward to. Would you guys suggest 2 team or 3 team round robin? Only done this twice before with other sports so really not sure the best approach, not trying to fuck about if i'm gonna do it for a UFC.
 
Throwing in the KO as an ammy is like throwing in Lineker getting subbed by Gaudinot in a fight where the striking was pretty even. There are a lot of other fights to go by instead. I disagree with you on Garbrandt brawling. His critique has been the opposite - that he's tentative. The team thing I won't disagree with, but Alpha Male has talent there to train with. I just see this fight being very competitive.
garbrandt does go into brawling mode at times he just stops moving his head and starts chucking and then he goes back to being tentative
 
Not gonna lie at these odds I like Garbrandt. And I like Garbrandt by dec at +285. Lineker has great boxing and a stellar chin but I could easily see Cody getting him to the mat and winning a round that way and possibly doing enough standing to win at least a round that way. Lineker loves body shots and depending on the judges they sometimes aren't scored the same as head strikes (even though they maybe should be). I very slightly favor Lineker but it's so close I will take the dog. And esp his dec line. Fun little parlay paying over +2600

Garbrandt by dec+mousasi by dec+magny by dec
 
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Garbrandt

"F**k no. I would never go to Elevation," Garbrandt told Submission Radio. "No, I wouldn't, I wouldn't go there. You know, [Joseph Benavidez and Lance Palmer] are out there and training with T.J. They have previous relationships with him so it's whatever, but they're going to come back and train with us in the team? I don't know how well that's going to go over."

Garbrandt faces John Lineker Feb. 21 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but sees a date with Dillashaw sooner than later.

"I'll probably end up fighting T.J., so I guess I'll focus on this fight and I guess we'll have to talk about that when it comes," said Garbrandt. "You know, [Benavidez and Palmer] will continue to train with T.J., basically 'the enemy' and Duane Ludwig and all those guys, so I don't know. I don't really try to focus on that too much this camp."

The undefeated Ohio native sounds most disappointed in Palmer, who he's had in his corner for his past four fights.

"He's from Ohio, he's my boy," Garbrandt said of Palmer. "He's one of my good friends, but at the end of the day you're going to go out there and help that dude? You know what I mean? You're going to go out and help that dude that's not even on the team? I understand they have a friendship and whatever, this and that, but I don't feel comfortable with it. But hey, I'm focusing on myself. I'm doing what I need to do to win this fight and further my career, so that's all I have to worry about."
 
I think I said that back when he was on the TUF thingy with Faber and it just keeps on comming, Garbrandt doesn't seem very bright. It feels a lot like as if he's all id in the Freudian sense. That in combination with a new head coach, team Alpha male in general being a bit disorganized right now and such seems like a recipe for disaster. Dude did not look great last time out (although I seem to remember him being awesome vs Brimage), and I just don't see how we can trust him to look better this time given the circumstances.

Not saying he can't win or anything, but it 's a lot of question marks going on with him.

Started watching tape on some other stuff, think I have a fairly good idea about a fight or two now. Might end up with a bunch of bets.
 
Garbrandt

"F**k no. I would never go to Elevation," Garbrandt told Submission Radio. "No, I wouldn't, I wouldn't go there. You know, [Joseph Benavidez and Lance Palmer] are out there and training with T.J. They have previous relationships with him so it's whatever, but they're going to come back and train with us in the team? I don't know how well that's going to go over."

Garbrandt faces John Lineker Feb. 21 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but sees a date with Dillashaw sooner than later.

"I'll probably end up fighting T.J., so I guess I'll focus on this fight and I guess we'll have to talk about that when it comes," said Garbrandt. "You know, [Benavidez and Palmer] will continue to train with T.J., basically 'the enemy' and Duane Ludwig and all those guys, so I don't know. I don't really try to focus on that too much this camp."

The undefeated Ohio native sounds most disappointed in Palmer, who he's had in his corner for his past four fights.

"He's from Ohio, he's my boy," Garbrandt said of Palmer. "He's one of my good friends, but at the end of the day you're going to go out there and help that dude? You know what I mean? You're going to go out and help that dude that's not even on the team? I understand they have a friendship and whatever, this and that, but I don't feel comfortable with it. But hey, I'm focusing on myself. I'm doing what I need to do to win this fight and further my career, so that's all I have to worry about."

team alpha fail~
 
I bet Garbrandt by KO in his last fight which didn't happen and I swear I read somewhere after that he wasn't 100% going into it which pissed me off but now I can't find any articles that said that. Weird.
 
I expect Brunson to be expensive. You're going to have to play props for this fight (unless you believe Carneiro will win).
 
i disagree, i actually think i have like 6+ good, strong leans for this card. rather not say a few of them until the lines open. when they do, i'll be happy to share, hehe

I hope there will be some action for our sake but I don't think we'll get good odds on anyone... I mean, like Brunson for example, how can I be excited when he'll open up something unplayable? He SHOULD win but I've also considered that he has trouble making weight at 185 because he's super lean and he openly states that he needs IV. In any case, he should starch Roan but man I'm getting back pennies to my dollar.

Even with the expected favorites, they are either flakey or untrustworthy fighters. That's pretty much my take on why I'm pessimistic about betting this upcoming card with the addition of not being excited about the level of competition on this card. I freakin advocated betting Lahat last card and on paper should've grapple fucked that south American dude. I would've lost a lot of money if he opened really cheap.

You know what I mean? But I'll wait to see openers to see if I can finnagle a play out of this Pittsburgh event
 
I hope there will be some action for our sake but I don't think we'll get good odds on anyone... I mean, like Brunson for example, how can I be excited when he'll open up something unplayable? He SHOULD win but I've also considered that he has trouble making weight at 185 because he's super lean and he openly states that he needs IV. In any case, he should starch Roan but man I'm getting back pennies to my dollar.

Even with the expected favorites, they are either flakey or untrustworthy fighters. That's pretty much my take on why I'm pessimistic about betting this upcoming card with the addition of not being excited about the level of competition on this card. I freakin advocated betting Lahat last card and on paper should've grapple fucked that south American dude. I would've lost a lot of money if he opened really cheap.

You know what I mean? But I'll wait to see openers to see if I can finnagle a play out of this Pittsburgh event

Sure, but sometimes openers are lower than you think.. I'm confident that a couple of my leans will be playable
 
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