AJ vs Bader:
AJ should clearly be the favourite but I don't really like the odds on him, plus the by KO prop doesn't particularly improve them that much even if it is the most likely method. I'll probably avoid betting it. Bader does have a questionable chin but his stand-up has improved and though I don't expect him to trouble AJ much in that regard, he could use it to set up his wrestling. I'd say Bader has the cardio advantage and if he's able to mix it up and avoid getting KO'ed in the first couple of rounds that could be big. AJ showed off some great defensive wrestling in the Davis fight but that was probably the worst Phil Davis we've seen, he didn't set anything up and seemed very tentative and scared to get hit, instead just shooting takedowns from miles out without even attempting to set them up, whereas I think Bader has a wrestling style better suited to MMA. With it being a 5 round fight I think Bader could find success in not committing too much early on, using his strikes to set up takedowns and attempting to grind AJ against the cage, tiring him out and eventually managing to take him down. Despite being a menace on the feet and having some solid counterwrestling, if you do get AJ on his back he's limited offensively and I don't think he's great at creating scrambles to successfully get back to his feet, after the first round I think Bader would find success in keeping AJ on his back if he could take him down. Essentially if AJ doesn't finish Bader in the first two I think he'll be the one who starts to slow down and Bader can take over and he's shown he can keep up a good pace in 3rd/4th/5th rounds.
I think AJ is the clear favourite, but I actually think Bader has more ways to win. I don't think AJ can submit Bader and I think the majority of the times this goes to a decision, it'd be Bader picking it up. If AJ wins I'd say 85% of the time that's by KO (probably within the first 2 rounds, AJ has only once finished a fight that went to the 3rd round; coincidentally on the TUF card that Bader made his UFC debut on back in 2008). Though it's a lot less likely than the AJ KO, I think Bader can pick up a decision win and could also submit AJ with a choke, and less likely but I do think he could stop AJ with strikes from GnP late in the fight.
The obvious prediction is AJ by KO but I don't like the odds on it. Assuming they stay the same (or improve), for me I'll look at betting:
- under 2.5 rounds @ 1.66
- Bader by points @ 9.00
- Bader r3 @ 29.00
- Bader r4 @ 34.00
- Bader r5 @ 41.00
As I said, in terms of likelihood the obvious is that AJ KO's Bader, but if Bader makes it to the 3rd round I love the odds on those props.
hope the line climbs again at some point but i doubt it.. might hit barnett if his line keep climbing
