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Official UFC on FOX 19 Thread - Tampa - Khabib vs Ferguson

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 9, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  2. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    so we already talked a bout it a lot in futures thread, but loooove ferg here.

    i'm big on ferg no scorecards -135, ferg sub +580, and small on ferg rd 4/5.

    tho obviously still worried khabib might pull out!

    --

    have some on chiesa +180 and chiesa dec +440. i just think this is gonna be super competitive. huge dariush fan, have made a killing on him, but i think chiesa is gonna push him. shit could be close. dariush better pure bjj and better hands, but chiesa more aggressive and better wrestling. chiesa is really growing on me.

    --

    namajunas i love here to sub torres. i freakin love it. the improved wrestling rose showed vs paige (i'm aware paige is young and flawed) -- or her aggression on the feet.. i think this goes to the matc. tecia has been wrestling a lot more, herself, lately.. and she's toast in rose's guard, IMO.

    loving this card for betting so far.

    (was on shogun vs 'shad, too, but that just got pulled)
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I am pretty much on all the same as you but I am seriously BIG on Ferg. All told over 8u with props included (and that's counting my hedge on Khabib by dec.). I might have to add a little more to that just to be responsible.

    Did take that Chiesa dec small but also Dariush itd. Chiesa is ultra aggressive but that could work against him with someone as skilled as Dariush. But that Chiesa dec line is sweet at +440 so had to bite.

    Pissed I missed Namajunas sub opener, had to settle for +300. I'll still take it. Also have no scorecards in 3 parlays now. You're right, basically freerolling with that.
     
  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I don't really get the Ferg plays... simply based on Khabib being out for so long? Either way I see this fight being pertty competitive. I might stab Ferb by sub just because of you guys but man I might just lb.

    I also think Dariush and Chiesa will be super close and don't mind a play on Chiesa here.

    Namajunas no cards IS great parlay fodder.
     
  5. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Ferg Split DEC +1355
     
  6. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ferg is a must-bet for me based on khabib's layoff / injury issues. ferg doesn't slow down, doesn't quit.. 5 rounds for khabib here - nightmare return fight, IMO. khabib is gonna get some td's. no doubt. but i think ferg gets him out of there at some point.

    khabib decision could happen, but i love the price(s) on the ferg plays
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    It's not just that Khabib has been out so long (though that is for sure a factor). It's that while Khabib has been out Ferg has been wrecking people. It's the fact this is a 5 round fight and that is a hell of a long time to try to do what Khabib is almost surely going to try to do (take Ferg down and hold him there the whole fight). It's the fact that Ferg has multiple ways to win while Khabib really has one path to victory (most likely, obviously weird things happen). And it's the fact that I think I'm getting what is right now the better fighter at + odds.

    Plus given how extremely unlikely it is that Khabib finishes Ferg, it's a pretty easy fight to hedge with Khabib by dec.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah I echo previous sentiments regarding Ferg. Khabib has never fought anyone as good off there back as Ferg, plus hes gonna demolish Khabib on the feet.
     
  9. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    If you have not hedged with Khabib DEC yet and still plan on hedging, consider playing the o3.5 -175. It covers either DEC and late finishes. You could potentially hit that along with the your Ferg bets
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I might hit that too, good call. I have hedged some with Khabib dec and was planning on maybe adding more. Have to figure out what I do now.
     
  11. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Yeah, if you plan on doing more on Khabib DEC, just hit that instead
     
  12. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    damn, I was gonna play Shogun semi-big :(
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Namajunas (scorecards = no action) -435*

    I'd just be shocked if this lost.
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Dariush no SC -138?
     
  15. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Not bad, but idk.. He did get finished by Ramsey... Ive watched that a few times, tho. It was the best sequence of nijem's career. He stayed on Him and it was very skillful by Ramsey to constantly stay on dariush in the scrambles

    Chiesa could conceivably do the same thing, but I do think dariush is more experienced now

    Again, not bad.. But no bet for me atm
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I have about £900 on Ferg SU varying between +150 to +175. Also put £40 on Ferg sub @ +500. Got £50 on Rose sub @ +350. Had £250 on Shogun @ +210 but that's obviously dead.

    Eyeing Dodson + Glover parlay but only if I get at least +130 which I doubt. If not will possibly throw Machida in or an over 1.5 as lots of fights look like they will go deep or to the judges (Swanson Dias looks a great over bet).

    I also have £700 on Machida, MM, Bermudez parlay @ +139 (Bermudez cashed so need the other two to close it out).

    I will definitely be playing Magalhaes by KO or ITD. Cezar has the worst chin in the UFC and while Magalhaes is wild he can bang.

    Looks like this is going to be a massive card for me betting wise. Think i will end up with about 3k of pre-bets.
     
  17. rille31 Brown Belt

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    betsafe

    glover +124

    10units
     
  18. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    omg!!!!!!!! thanks for posting. I hit it for 5u
    Whst the hell are they thinking

    @Sham5916910 get on it fellow betsafe user.
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    LOL you fuckers are probably fucking me! Tried to put £1500 on it but let me bet £300 and sent the rest for manual review. I don't like going for manual review as it probably highlights me, but I will get limited for that line! Please let manual review be approved!
     
  20. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    lmaooo you will kill that line :)
     
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