Official UFC on FOX 19 Thread - Tampa - Khabib vs Ferguson

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weedreference said:
Really? Ferg is one of the most unpredictable fighters and best finishers.
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I agree, I put some money down on Ferg by sub which I think is a great bet at 4.5. I think he is scrappy enough to catch a sub in a scramble and if he is down going in to the final rounds he will throw all kinds of spinning shit.
 
although it's pretty short, khabib by decision seems a good hedge, Im holding out for 2.5+ on the exchanges
 
Agent Mulder said:
Idk if it's worth hedging with a price like that.
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he's around evens at most books, I'll be lucky if I can get 2.5 as current prices stand, just hard to see khabib finishing ferg at all, much better than his outright line imo. If the lines even up closer too the fight his dec line should drift out too, maybe even to 3.0 which I'd gladly take
 
RE: Ferguson/Nurmagomedov

I think the odds are just stacked against Khabib here. Dude's been oft injured left and right being away for 2 years. RDA has had 5 wins since he was beat by Khabib. Tony has also racked up 6 W's since the last time Khabib fought. Ferg's sharpened his blades going into this marquee match up.

Meanwhile, Khabib on the other hand has lost a bit of momentum and now he's gotta make his long awaited return to fight a 5 round fight with a guy who brings an intense pace from start to finish? Even if he does get his wrestling going early in the fight hes got 2+ extra championship rounds to keep on wrestling a guy who's gonna be in ur face chipping at you the whole way.

The 5 rounds will help Ferguson tremendously as he'll be putting money in the bank with body attacks, he even mentioned that his D'Arce he'll use it just to tire dudes out.

I'm not even sure if Khabib is that great when he's on top. He wore that one shirt talking about Sambo>BJJ. He'd at least get attacked from the bottom with a high guard or with elbows. Khabib like a lot of Russian guys are more comfortable taking the back position where they are relentless with the suplexes. In that case I can see Ferguson rolling like he's done lately either to escape or try for a kneebar. Although!!! that shit might be a bad idea lol but at least he's got a plan of action rather than to sit there and get rag dolled like a sad puppy like Trujillo was.

Ferg's got way too many weapons. Elbows up close, he's got a long jab, very smooth footwork and he bobs & weaves like a really good boxer. He's got really hard leg kicks and they extend well if Khabib tries to circle out. Being able to beat a guy like Thomson (an aka teammate) the way he did proved a lot to me.

Look back at Khabib's fight with Pat Healy and see that it was a super competitive fight but he got taken down at the ends of the 1st and 2nd to lose those respective rounds. But Pat pressured the crap out of Khabib and it wasn't actually a wrestling clinic til the 3rd. Khabib's style isn't very economic it takes a lot of energy to be exploding the way he does and relies a lot of his athleticism. Tony will be attacking and feinting too much for Khabib to want to run into something I expect him to backpeddle plenty in this fight. BUT if I'm wrong and Khabib is the one moving forward it's probably a fight he's going to win so I'll watch out for that.

I can see Ferguson winning by KO/Sub/Dec. With Khabib only winning by containing this guy for a dec. Get that RDA fight out of your head and just play the underdog for the win!!:p:D

On another note, I can see these odds tightening up closer to fight day. I put my bid in at 500/800. In case i get cold feet, I could see Khabib's dec line improving too if odds do tighten up.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
RE: Ferguson/Nurmagomedov

I think the odds are just stacked against Khabib here. Dude's been oft injured left and right being away for 2 years. RDA has had 5 wins since he was beat by Khabib. Tony has also racked up 6 W's since the last time Khabib fought. Ferg's sharpened his blades going into this marquee match up.

Meanwhile, Khabib on the other hand has lost a bit of momentum and now he's gotta make his long awaited return to fight a 5 round fight with a guy who brings an intense pace from start to finish? Even if he does get his wrestling going early in the fight hes got 2+ extra championship rounds to keep on wrestling a guy who's gonna be in ur face chipping at you the whole way.

The 5 rounds will help Ferguson tremendously as he'll be putting money in the bank with body attacks, he even mentioned that his D'Arce he'll use it just to tire dudes out.

I'm not even sure if Khabib is that great when he's on top. He wore that one shirt talking about Sambo>BJJ. He'd at least get attacked from the bottom with a high guard or with elbows. Khabib like a lot of Russian guys are more comfortable taking the back position where they are relentless with the suplexes. In that case I can see Ferguson rolling like he's done lately either to escape or try for a kneebar. Although!!! that shit might be a bad idea lol but at least he's got a plan of action rather than to sit there and get rag dolled like a sad puppy like Trujillo was.

Ferg's got way too many weapons. Elbows up close, he's got a long jab, very smooth footwork and he bobs & weaves like a really good boxer. He's got really hard leg kicks and they extend well if Khabib tries to circle out. Being able to beat a guy like Thomson (an aka teammate) the way he did proved a lot to me.

Look back at Khabib's fight with Pat Healy and see that it was a super competitive fight but he got taken down at the ends of the 1st and 2nd to lose those respective rounds. But Pat pressured the crap out of Khabib and it wasn't actually a wrestling clinic til the 3rd. Khabib's style isn't very economic it takes a lot of energy to be exploding the way he does and relies a lot of his athleticism. Tony will be attacking and feinting too much for Khabib to want to run into something I expect him to backpeddle plenty in this fight. BUT if I'm wrong and Khabib is the one moving forward it's probably a fight he's going to win so I'll watch out for that.

I can see Ferguson winning by KO/Sub/Dec. With Khabib only winning by containing this guy for a dec. Get that RDA fight out of your head and just play the underdog for the win!!:p:D

On another note, I can see these odds tightening up closer to fight day. I put my bid in at 500/800. In case i get cold feet, I could see Khabib's dec line improving too if odds do tighten up.
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Yep. Good to see Rebel Lion on board too. Confidence increase in Ferg. I'd add (I've prob said this before) that Ferg's durability is a huge asset too. Allows him to take chances other guys can't. Roll for kneebars, show insane aggression in his striking, etc.
 
I was becoming high on Ferguson but rewatched his Abel fight and didn't like how he was somewhat man handled before his cardio took over and he got the sub.

Khabib can hustle his chain wrestling for days at a time. He's prolly got a goat chin and sorry guys but subs off your back aren't as common as Joe rogan hopes they are.

I'm starting to see a lot of value on khabib as price comes down

Don't let the layoff scare you. Dominick Cruz
 
If Khabib is same as last time then he can land those big slams all night and day. Actually his cardio is even better than his takedown skill.
The problem for Khabib is that Ferguson is much slicker compared to heavier RDA and he will have harder time controlling the fight. I think it goes to decision and if judges favour the aggressive fighter then Ferguson might get the dec even with spending a lot of time on the mat.
 
I think the odds could be alot closer. If it does tighten up maybe Khabib's decision line goes up and I can maybe play the board in psuedo hedges.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Just about to post this. I currently have just over £900 on Ferg think this means i will round it up to 1k. Khabib unan dec is +187 Ladbrokes.
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Generally love tailing you but i honestly think this fight will be so close. I do think khabib has some gas tank concerns. I like lb this fight favouring ferg in later rounds.

Watched tape on both guys and i think there is a decent chance khabib dominates with superior grappling and tds
 
LEMONZEST said:
Generally love tailing you but i honestly think this fight will be so close. I do think khabib has some gas tank concerns. I like lb this fight favouring ferg in later rounds.

Watched tape on both guys and i think there is a decent chance khabib dominates with superior grappling and tds
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+187 I will hammer all day long if I think a fight is "so close".

And I think the odds are just so slim that Khabib finishes Ferg that I'm okay just taking the Khabib dec line at evens as a bit of a hedge.

That said, I can understand not wanting to go too nuts on a fight where you just don't have a great read (pre fight). Even if the odds seem to beg you to hammer the dog like in this one.
 
I'm on the Ferg train. Really like this card for betting more than any recent event other than 196/Nate because those odds were wild. I'm actually playing the entire main card:

Ferg +170
Dariush -185
Machida Decision +420
Rose/Tecia Decision -185
Glover -210
 
LEMONZEST said:
Generally love tailing you but i honestly think this fight will be so close. I do think khabib has some gas tank concerns. I like lb this fight favouring ferg in later rounds.

Watched tape on both guys and i think there is a decent chance khabib dominates with superior grappling and tds
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Now i've thought about it i won't be adding any more. I will definitely lb this fight and will hopefully get a decent line on Khabib dec after a round or two to hedge if it's not going Ferg's way. I actually regret putting anything on Ferg now as I have a grand on Glover at evens i would have been more than happy with just that!!! That aside tho i am really high on Ferg he is so dangerous everywhere and he will make this fight ugly. I can see him cutting Khabib up from his back if not from standing and it will be interesting to see if Khabib can cope with Ferg's pace and what he's like being pushed back. Ferg is great at scrambling with his forward rolls and rolling kneebar attempts and the like. He is also so dangerous with his long arms Khabib has to be so careful with his neck on failed takedown attempts that Ferg doesn't lace up a choke. What kind of Khabib are we getting with a two year lay off too? How healthy is he? It's kinda at the stage now where he really cannot pull out of another fight so i would not be surprised if he is still not 100% healthy. How are his knees after all that surgery? Is his shot the same? Too many questions for me not to go big on Ferg as a dog. I can also see Ferg winning by sub, TKO or dec. Khabib i only see winning by dec. In modern day MMA I am not betting on a guy with one route to victory against a guy who can win anywhere. Ferg also has a supreme confidence he truly believes he will be champion. I do need to watch tape as i loved the value hope my mind doesn't change too much after watching tape lol.
 
^^ shit man you are talking me into betting Ferg. I might add more to Ferg.

You are right the injuries of Khabib are a massive unknown.

One interesting outcome you mentioned is Ferg lacing in a choke. After watching tape Khabib often ducks under for a shot whenever he is being pressured on the feet. I agree that Ferg could lock in a choke as the way Khabib shoots is predictable.
 
I don't like Khabib by UD at all. I think even if it hits the cards, 1 or 2 judges can give it to Ferguson. 5 rounder makes all the difference. There's never a dull moment with Tony, I feel like he's just the 'right type of crazy' to go against Khabib. You don't just shoot on him wreckless he's too dangerous everywhere. I don't think Khabib leaves this fight without taking any damage.

Josh Thomson, an AKA teammate of Khabib's, is a great LnP'er when he wants to be and is as seasoned as you can get and he got mopped up in that fight. He had nothing on Tony even when it hit the floor, he was getting Tee'd off in the guard and he also got swept.

Tony's footwork let's him jab with his right or his left hand and he's able to advance forward off of it. Even when he throws crosses he advances forward and most guys want to either shoot or circle out. Tony forces your hand and has a read option of:

Snapping the neck down, rolling out of danger (risky) or

Ending the combination with a snapping low kick when they circle.

When guys put up a high guard he throws uppercuts and snap kicks. This is also risky he got rocked by Abel but he's got a good chin he's able to do things like this.

Think about all the 5 rounders in recent memory that went the distance and the scores were all over the place. It happens, because each individual judge has a different set of eyes from you.

To conclude, when it comes down to it, the guy who pressures and moves forward is likely winning the fight. Khabib could eat all that shit Tony throws and just toss him around and secure position. We'll know early in round 1. I'm just a guy throwing my chips at the guy who I think will be on the gas pedal and I get dog odds for it.

I'm super excited for this main event also!
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I don't like Khabib by UD at all. I think even if it hits the cards, 1 or 2 judges can give it to Ferguson. 5 rounder makes all the difference. There's never a dull moment with Tony, I feel like he's just the 'right type of crazy' to go against Khabib. You don't just shoot on him wreckless he's too dangerous everywhere. I don't think Khabib leaves this fight without taking any damage.

Josh Thomson, an AKA teammate of Khabib's, is a great LnP'er when he wants to be and is as seasoned as you can get and he got mopped up in that fight. He had nothing on Tony even when it hit the floor, he was getting Tee'd off in the guard and he also got swept.

Tony's footwork let's him jab with his right or his left hand and he's able to advance forward off of it. Even when he throws crosses he advances forward and most guys want to either shoot or circle out. Tony forces your hand and has a read option of:

Snapping the neck down, rolling out of danger (risky) or

Ending the combination with a snapping low kick when they circle.

When guys put up a high guard he throws uppercuts and snap kicks. This is also risky he got rocked by Abel but he's got a good chin he's able to do things like this.

Think about all the 5 rounders in recent memory that went the distance and the scores were all over the place. It happens, because each individual judge has a different set of eyes from you.

To conclude, when it comes down to it, the guy who pressures and moves forward is likely winning the fight. Khabib could eat all that shit Tony throws and just toss him around and secure position. We'll know early in round 1. I'm just a guy throwing my chips at the guy who I think will be on the gas pedal and I get dog odds for it.

I'm super excited for this main event also!
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Yep great points. I think the hedge is Khabib by dec and maybe even a tiny bit on Khabib by split/majority.
 
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