Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.
Scroll up I've made a few posts about it ! Hehe
Didn't see that, you're in the same boat as me then.
Any idea what happened to Lewis vs Grabowski? I think the fight is still on but just not on Sherdog fight finder, or am I missing something?
Yep, same page. Roy could get rd 1 ko, thats the risk
Haven't heard on Lewis-grab
Not sure about Rosholt. Nelson is tough to take down and he probably wins the stand up. And Rosholt gets rocked a lot.
Can't really remember if barnatt was able to take country down?
Definitely favor Roy over Rosholt. This is a typical Roy vs non elite HW fight. Rosholt will get hit, and he will go down. HUGE difference in wrestling and more specifically takedown defense from Struve to Roy.
In his last 13 fights Roy has one win vs a fighter still in the UFC (Mitrione), he's 39 and 1-5 in his last 6. I can't back that as a favourite vs anyone top30 or so. Last time he knocked someone out standing after round 1 (Cro-Cop was GNP from crucifix I think) was 2007 according to wikipedia.
I agree; one guy is enshrouded jnin a culture of losing (albeit against good guys) and the other is racking up w's
Too many wiki stats. Roy looked the best he has in awhile against Barnett and gave Reem some problems. If his fight IQ wasn't horrendous in that fight, he had Reem in some very bad spots.
A bet on Rosholt is a bet on a guy who gasses worse than Roy and should've been KOd by Timothy Johnson if that dude didn't have the worst fight IQ ever
I will probs be on Werdum, and I will tell you why: Cain isn't safe anywhere in this fight. His usual strategy is this: Put you on the fence, grab the back of your neck/shoulder and dirty box away, while putting the head in your chest. This has worked so well for him in the past, because he's never fought anyone with good Muay Thai.
If he does this to Doom, Doom just grabs the Thai clinch and feeds him knees. Ofcourse they will jockey for position through out, but it will mostly be a stalemate on the fence or Cain will probably get the worst of it, due to knees with un-obstructed path to his face vs Punches that's mostly blocked with the arms/elbows of the thai clinch.
Out in the open, they are mostly evenly matched, Werdum has added a lot to his range striking game. Though both men still lack head movemnt, and I suppose either could knock the other out. - Cain might win by pushing Werdum back at points, but I doubt he can keep it up for ever.
On the ground, Cain can maybe keep the top position for a short while, but you never want to get Werdum time to work down there. His guard is too dangerous, and Cain won't be able to just sit there and ground and pound him.
That said, ofcourse Cain will be way better with cardio, but I think the reason he was "Cardio Cain" was that non of his opponents really made him work before. Dos Santos mostly accepted being the nail, getting pounded on, on the fence all the time. Werdum didn't conceed ground unless Cain made him, and always hit him back at every point, always made him work. He hit him ALOT with brutal knees to the body too. That no doubt sapped him more than just pounding Santos in the face over 9+ rounds.
can someone talk me out of putting 5 units on werdum jonny hendricks parlay. seems like a lock to me dont know why werdum isnt the favorite cant really see him losing and hendricks will forsure take thompson down and win another decision unless he gets caught with a fluke headkick. just waiting for a better price.
Let me start off with the good ol', Nothing is a lock in MMA, much less a parlay consisting of an underdog and a favorite, with a clear path to lose.
Now Parlays all around sucks but can't say i don't like the plays.
why parlay them? is what i would say to that
if you like werdum, bet werdum. if you are right and nail the dog and are wrong on the strong favorite, kinda a waste to me
(but i've all but written parlays off in general, i guess)
I like Werdum, especially still at dog odds, but I gotta say I expect a MUCH better Cain. Its turned into a joke, but elevation is noooo fucking joke. Werdum trained in it for months and Cain showed up 5 days before the fight. If you don't think that was a legitimate factor, I must whole heartedly disagree.
I don't think Hendricks is worth the juice. Wonderboy has shown improvements in tdd and you can bet he'll be working that nonstop (along with timing knees or kicks as Johnny changes levels). At the point where each guy is in their careers, the odds of Woderboy making huge strides in weaker parts of his game are far better than Hendricks doing it. Throw in that Hendricks has had weight cutting issues in the past so that possibility is always there. I just don't think this is going to be the Thompson that got controlled by Matt Brown. He showed good ability to keep the fight standing vs Ellenburger.
Okay, all that said do I favor Hendricks straight up in a 3 rounder? Sure. The most likely scenerio is him winning at least 2 rounds via top control. But the odds are off imo. Hendricks at -160 in a 3 rounder? Sign me up (though I'd cap the fight at evens in a 5 rounder or even slightly favor Wonderboy). But I'd way rather bet Thompson at +220 (and even make a little stab at his KO/TKO line when it's up) than pay -260 on Hendricks at this point.
Still trying to figure out the best way to play Wonderboy/Hendricks. Thompson itd is +320 on 5d now. Hendricks dec is -109. I really don't see Johnny stopping WB. Obviously his gameplan you'd have to think is going to be to try to go D1 on Thompson and control him. I doubt WB subs Johnny, it's possible he keeps it standing enough to win a couple rounds, but if WB wins I think the most likely route is via KO/TKO. Thompson by dec is +665 right now. Once the KO/TKO line is released for WB I'm trying to figure out if I bet that and then a tiny amount on his dec line and leave out the sub and then hedge on Hendricks by dec if that will end up being better than just betting WB SU and then hedging with the Hendricks dec line.
Will WB by KO/TKO be much better than his itd line? I can't imagine it will. Maybe I'm over complicating it and should just bet him SU and hedge with Johnny by dec.
neither guy has ever been finished
only bet so far me is O2.5, -140 or whatever it was
Good point. I think I'm just gonna play WB straight up an Hendricks by dec. Thoughts on line movement?. I feel like Hendricks by dec at about evens isn't going to get any better. Any chance WB line gets better? Or just be happy with +220?
honestly i'm not sure, man, really not sure. thought thompson could climb a bit from opener, but he got bet, i suspect when juice lessens it'll get back to about where it was
but not confident in that
I'm gonna wait a bit I think. Hitting Hendricks dec line now but holding out for WB's line to get a bit better. I'm not sure it will either but I guess the way I look at it is I think there's a better chance I can get +250 than there is that he falls below +200.
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