Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.
When Roidjao brings me that +1100 dough will remember to quote this again
yea, it is
he prolly needs grabowski to get tired
so starts the post-weighin hendricks betting, thompson over +200 again and climbing
Pesta never went for anything against Lewis beyond holding him down (8 sig strikes, no sub attempts).
Grabby will be trying a lot more than that, and on that basis I'm on the 7/2 for the sub against a guy Ruan Potts nearly heel-hooked.
Lahat -3.5 points -195
Already big on Lahat in the parlays I have him in, but really thinking about going balls to the wall and hitting this big too. I don't see anything happening other than Rivas getting crushed.
Noons backers beware. Listening to Trigg interview with him, dude has a full time day job, is a part time firefighter, and has 2 very young kids. Yeesh.
went big on him by ko at +400, i just really like that line.
haha i did the same thing for 10 fights, but for a more modest payout of 40k lol
Stab v small Lobov/White FOTN +950
Don't really like the lines on anything else. +400 for the FLW fights? Meh. Take my chances on the fight pass guaranteed slugfest
Wow, the FOTN lines are absolute garbage
EDIT: Yeah JB, that was the only one I considered
I have a few breakdowns I'll post ITT… If anyone has any particular B/D request let me know.
I don't hate the main event for FOTN at +340.
I'm most torn on Nelson vs Roshalt. What do you think about the co-main event?
For sure. This event pays out a lot more then they usually do, though. They usually pay out around $10k. Still worth it though, IMO. It has happened once before
haha nice. That is not bad at all tho
I do not hate it, but I do not really like it. I will most likely not play it. I can see it hitting, but I can also see a Hendricks boring grindfest. Overall, I think the lines suck in general.
fucking stranger shit has happened at sea
i wonder what the payout would have been if you had predicted all the underdogs on that ludacrous brazil card a while back
This is obviously a complete guess, but I honestly think it would have been around $1 million.
One of the UFC's most brightest prospects are across the board is young 22-year-old Albuquerque native Borg. A 5'4" tall kinetic ball of fury, the 12th ranked UFC flyweight is consistently on his front foot forcing his opponent to react to his every move thus forcing them to perpetually be on defense. An offensive juggernaut, Borg is a superb grappler with excellent takedowns and is a terrific Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu player with six submissions on his docket. Specifically, on the mat, Borg is unbelievably difficult to deal with as he has a stifling top game where he rains down heavy ground -and-pound forcing his opponent give up their backs where he will subsequently explode into a rear naked choke before they have time to defend it. Nitpicking, the one vulnerability in the young prospects game is in the striking department. That is to say, he gets too over aggressive at times and leaves himself open to be countered. Nevertheless, at 22-years old this is something that will be corrected in the gym in due time. For now, it's not a massive liability and he can get by on his athleticism.
In the other corner his fellow mixed martial arts neophyte and bluechip prospect Justin Scoggins. A Kempo Karate black belt, Scoggins is a sterling striker with a massive array of techniques at his disposal. Highly credentialed in the discipline, Scoggins was a IKF World Champion Kickboxer prior to making the move to perform exclusively in mixed martial arts. A svelte 5'7" tall, Scoggins utilizes a nice wide stance and sits on the fringe where throws a rapier-esque jab, clean left-hook and kicks to all levels. Additionally, Scoggins has a strong wresting base with good takedowns and takedown defense respectively. While his submission game is not on the level of Borgs, it is competent nonetheless and as long as he don't force errors -- as he did with John Moraga -- he should be able to extricate himself from the most precarious positions.
At the end of the day, this is probably my favorite match-up on the entire card and I hate to see a either side lose. Moreover, I am perplexed as to what Sean Shelby was thinking when he made this fight. Why match up such highly touted prospects with the division is so shallow and in need of more challenges to 125 pound king pin Demetrious Johnson. Killing off one of these two men at this point in time makes little sense since both of them could potentially challenge for the title within the year or two based on how much success each has of course over the next few fights. With a shallow division and their potential, it is not out of the realm of possibility that either could get a shot sooner than later. See Cariaso, Chris for example. However, this file should be an absolute barnburner and I look to see them flying all over the cage highlighting mixed martial arts at its most beautiful.
As far as picking a winner, I'm not along the lines of the sportsbooks that Borg should be such a favorite. Particularly, I think Justin is a worthy adversary with the ability to get the KO or decision. That said, I'm leaning towards the "TasMmxican Devil! to consistently be the one proceeding forward and taking the initiative which will win him a much closer decision than the odds suggest.
Winner: Borg SD
Polish mixed martial artist and European regional circuit vagabond Grabowski will be making his debut in the UFC this weekend. He has prominently fought in the BELLATOR MMA as well and is the former M-1 Heavyweight champion. Primarily Grabowski is a grappler who holds a brown belt in the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu department and has won numerous European grappling competitions. The 35-year-old mixed martial artist is 6'1" tall and is not a giant heavyweight coming in at around 240 pounds give or take. Though he is a deft submission specialist, his offensive takedowns are average which often force him to stay vertical longer than he would like. What's more, his takedown defense is woeful and he has holes in the grappling department often losing position in scrambles. In fact, he lost his penultimate fight via North-South choke which also cost him M-1 strap. Though something to not worry about here LOL. While his striking is serviceable at best, he has managed to make it work for him long enough to get his opponent to respect it so that he can take them to the canvas. That said, he's not going to want to play around on the feet for a long time against his opponent this weekend as "TBB' is not the type of fighter to try and improve your striking with.
Physically Derek Lewis is cartoonishly large and someone who looks like he should be on the top row of scaffolding throwing down barrels as an impediment to his adversary who's climbing the ladder's chasing him. An absolute tank of a man, "The Black Beast" is forced to cut down to make the 265 pound limit and has power and both hands. The Louisiana native is a giant strong man who has a brawling style and loves to bullrush forward where he can work his opponent over in the clinch. Quick in scrambles, TBB is great gaining top position take where he is able to smash his opponent with a carpet bombing assault of heavy artillery in the form of his two five knuckle meathooks.
Undoubtably Grabowski is going to attempt to get TBB to the mat. If Grabowski is able to take TBB down early when he is fresh he may be able to get the submission. However he'll need to do it quickly as I believe TBB has the better cardio. What's more, after the opening stanza the 265 pounds behemoth has decent takedown defense (after his opponent slows down) and should theoretically be capable of shrugging the slow Pol off with brute strength.
Summarily, I anticipate Grabowski to have a good first frame before tiring himself I'll trying to ground the big gorilla and in rounds two and three he will ostensibly run into a brick wall each time he shoots in until he exhausts himself and is subsequently pounded out in Donkey Kong style fashion and bottled up to make fresh talcum powder.
Winner: TBB via second round knockout
Im really like Burkman against Noons, dont think Noons first priorities are fighting and hes doing it just for the money. He looked like shit against oliviera in his last fight and just gave up while Burkman had a crazy fight with Cote which could've gone either way both guys were rocked and almost koed. I dont know if im underrating noons too much ??
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