Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.
same, jim. i went with +340 thompson-hendricks for FOTN. small.
Yep he was pretty much my lock of the card. I was hoping he would fly under the radar and open up as a smaller favorite I was going to parlay him with Werdum. But it isn't to say I think Lahat is anything special, it's just Rivas is not UFC level.
Did any of you guys ever find any boxing/kickboxing tape on Mike Jackson?
Hard to say how big of a favorite Gall should be here. I expect Gall to win, but his odds make it seem like he'll win in Round 1, but there's no tape/results to back up this type of line.
Betting the total seems crazy, imo.
So I don't know this Artem guy but from what I've seen he talks better than he fights. He has Conor's style but the bum version.
How's his wrestling? Does he have bad TDD or something is why he has so many losses? Because if so I'd be willing to blindly bet Alex White by decision.
He pretty much relies on his timing of his strikes. Check hooks and straight lefts. He fights the fire fight but I think Alex White can probably bang with him and if he's smart he'd be training alot of wrestling. And I also see that Lobov has a study chin and was able to not get submitted in his UFC debut against a good grappler.
I do think Lahat wins but I dont see this 'lock' like you do. Those TUF Latin America guys have done really well in the UFC imo. Lahat has shown to be a mid tier fighter having close fights with guys like Siler and Backstrom. I do think Lahat wins, but do I see value at -315? no. Maybe put him in a medium sized parlay thats about it.
Fight is too close to call for me, can see it going either way. People are underrating White while over hyping Artem. I expect Artem to pick up a decision win as my pick, but Im not betting this fight. I dont see value either way.
You guys don't have to bet every single fight you know, we as bettors have the advantage of picking our shots, the bookies dont (They have to make lines for every fight), so use that to your advantage.
My plays are already set. I'm on Lahat, Roy, and Hendricks. But they're all 3 favorites.
I don't even like this card for betting in general but now I'm looking to have some fun and play the board on a couple guys. I ain't scared to bet big odds. The last card offered me +621 for CDF by decision and I took it without hesitation but it wasn't like CDF was my favorite bet or anything it had value and it paid off.
Artem has 8 decision losses. White by decision is +450, formerly +550.
I never said he had value. I was patiently awaiting the line openers and if Lahat was a good price I would drop a good amount on him because he's a middling fighter which I alluded to in my post. I was hoping to get him in the -100s low -200s but it didn't happen that way.
I have a rhyme and reason to every bet I make and I'm pretty good at determining value I'd like to say that's my best strength as a capper. And besides the fact, what part about Rivas' game did you like about him?
Im doing this every card. What euro site lets you parlay playing the distance? Surely hits one day great idea.
Its not so much what I like about Rivas's game, but more if im going to lay a big favorite, I want to make sure hes much better than his opponent, I believe Lahat and Rivas are on a similar platform, Rivas can make it competitive, but like I said I do still think Lahat wins but I just cant justify his price. There are much better spots on the card to bet.
And why do you feel so confident in Nelson? Rosholt is a solid grinder, who's to say he cant replicate what an over bloated Cormier did to Roy?
£2 every fight to go distance £228092
Placed the bet and saying return is 100k so unsure of payout! Maybe 100k is their max payout.
i found a few i posted earlier in this thread.. i played jackson small just cuz the price seems kinda nuts jackson does not look like anything special but he should have the better striking and looks like he has good power..
found a few of his boxing and kickboxing fights.. and saw on his twitter he is training with derrick lewis
also found an older interview (2011) where he talks a bit about his ground game.. he was training with Daniel Pineda and Joe Trevino back then..
1 unit on White by decision. Hes not finisher and good volume, Lobov is just one punch ko.
Do you guys think Lobov is worth it at -130? He doesn't get outgrappled often and he probably wins the striking.
i would say no.. i am thinking about heding out my -105 bet on lobov and just keep my no scorecards bet on him.. i think it will be close if it goes to a decision but i feel confident if there is a finish it will be lobov ko..
I'm heading out of town so prob won't be doing any live betting tonight. Which might be good as I've done better lately with my pre fight bets than I have live. Hopefully the Marriott at least has FS1...
So with being out of town I won't be on tonight. Just want to say BOL to everyone, hope we are all in the black at the end of the night!
Sean Spencer is now -139 on bet365.
man i went to oddschecker.com and you can manually select the decision for every fight (takes a while so it's a pain in the ass). this will then tell you which bookie is offering the best price for the parlay. it was paddypower then i checked to see the paddypower max payout, which was 50k for ufc so i dropped from 12 fighters to 10.
there have been cards in the past with 10 decisions so fuck it (machida vs mousasi i believe had one of the most decs ever)
Yeah, be careful, every book has a max payout, I think $100k for 5D. They don't want a bettor to hit some crazy parlay and owe hundreds of thousands or millions on one bet.
Goodfella you have breakdowns for the lahat/Rivas, burkman/noons and spencer/Pyle fights? Would also be interested to see all your picks for the card if you don't mind sharing. Finalizing my bets and fantasy teams, appreciate your breakdowns!
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