Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.
Cool so betting dec on all 12 was pointless lol lesson learned.
Drop to -120 im smashing it.
Spencer -130 at Ladbrokes. Do i wait...
-120 Coral...might have to register.
all right you band of geniuses, tell me why I am wrong here and Spencer keeps on going up. I believed him to be the best bet in A very long time when he was -150 now he keeps going up! I was talking to NDC about this. Here's the rationale:
At -125 I think that Sean Spencer is one of the best bets I have seen in probably a year or two. WHY? He's incredibly fast and athletic and he is 15 years the junior of his opponent. While Pyle is a good fighter & had a bit of a resurgence – from 2011-2013 – he's 40 years old. Moreover, he has lost three of his last four fights, and theoretically could have lost four of his last five but he was gifted a very close decision against Rick Story where he got worked for 2 1/2 rounds and most observers believe he lost. What's more, not only did "Quicksand" lose three of his last four but in two of them he was stretched out flat in the first stanza. (Brown and Mein)
Then there's the stylistic match up itself. Pyle doesn't have great takedowns and he keeps his head straight up in the air on offense and in exchanges when he is pulling out. Meanwhile, Spencer has excellent takedown defense and is a golden glove boxing champion who puts together crisp, clean, accurate, and efficient combinations with lotsa volume.
Also with Spencer, I believe that we are getting a bit of value because he is coming off of a loss, but anyone who seen the fight (Cathal Pendred) knows that it was a victory. Furthermore, he thought Alex Garcia -- who is a stud prospect -- to a split decision. Although I believe Garcia should have won on all scorecards it was still closely contested.
All-around this is just a terrible fight for the vet. Lastly, with Pyle spending a lot of time coaching and putting money and effort into his new fly-fishing venture I think think he's transitioning into the post fight game. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked to see a post for retirement announcement given a loss.
I could be dead wrong with this but personally I put a HUGE bet on Spencer as I love these odds. The only thing keeping me from going fulltilt on Spencer is his "split decision" victory over the subpar Yuri Villefort. This fight was too close for someone as mediocre as Yuri. There's this and the fact that he isn't at some estimable training camp full-time as he has a part-time job.
as I asked ndc to do -- now tell me why I'm so wrong lol
LOL I just posted a huge post regarding exactly this ... glad I'm not the only one.
wack found some new un-posted jacksons boxing vids here:
think the last one is a kickboxing one also, but lower tier material. Also has my b/d in his quote.
Jackon's pretty much a an striker, done some pro boxing and kickboxing matches in the past, otherwise an mma blogger turned mma fighter recently, while gall been doing jiu jitsu since 16 and prefers his ground and submission game. Jackson has said he won't get taken down....
Not seen artem go for much if any take downs recently even on tuf if memory serves me right, he did get out grappled for most of his last fight against hall, hall just another level above him in jiu jitsu and the ground game really. Its a fight designed to make lobov strike and perhaps look good, white has good volume in general especially in r1, tires towards the last half of r2,r3 though and his chin has been cracked before. I still feel lobovs chin and forward pressuring might be to much for white here, reckon lobov ko still.
Some lobov HL gifs here:
spencer is pillow fisted. pyle has more power, better ground, and has more size and more experience.
spencer is a decent technical striker and has age on his side. more checkmarks for pyle. i have it like 60-40 pyle, and 30+ % of that 40% for spencer is decision, imo
I felt garcia got 2 rounds in easily not sure how he got a split really, but otherwise Sham and myself were eyeing up spencer, just a decent volume striker but few other regular joe's mentioned his pillow fist. But I still expect spencer to win via points and to out work pyle, just hoping pyle @ 40 does not do one of his inside clinch trips but even then spencer works well to his feet most of the time.
Still like spencer decision, but as you say those splits..... wish I had a split decision prop !
Can't blame you hitting Spencer's line hard MMAGF. I can see why someone would see value here. Honestly, for me only reason I took Pyle by dec small is i'm not sold at all on Spencer. I don't see him as anything more than a low tier WW who is undersized and has problems phasing different aspects of the game together. Also was not impressed with how wild he became as soon as he hit Cathal clean. Need to see more of him to be sold. Pyle is shopworn, but always been very technical.
Agree with everything. I was going to bet Spencer SU as my sole bet but wanted him at -120. He wasnt so i laid another bet. I have never laid two big bets before on one card but i am going to here as he has reached -120.
I agree Spencer is no Tyson with his power BUT he hurt Garcia badly and dropped Thiago and Pendred he jusf needs to be cuter with his finishing. I dont agree he is pillow fisted. Pyle was getting outstruck by Colby and TJ. The only reason i hesitated at -150 is because this is Sean Spencer and Pyle is very technical. But to hell with it i cannot see Pyle getting him down and even if he does keeping him down.
To add as well Story would have a r1 KO on his record were it not for Pyle smashing his head off the mat and waking back up.
Goodfella, I asked earlier in the thread, where are you at with Roshalt vs Nelson?
might jump on board with guys and go big on spencer.. no clue hwo is betting so much on pyle? pyle looked awful in his last fight vs covington even in the standup covington got the better of him. if pyle cant get the takedowns i just see spencer outworking him on the feet
As a general rule, I almost never play a fighter who is coming off of a violent knock out loss. Now combine this with the fact that Burkman is 35 years old and for the first time in his career is making a drop down to 155 pounds -- where we know the weight-cut lessens the amount of damage your chin can take -- and there's the possibility for a repeat scenario. Add all of the aforementioned knowledge to the fact that KJ is a former boxer who has clean, crisp, quick and heavy hands with solid TDD and there's a lot of worry for JB bettors. Historically, KJ has shown to have pretty good beard and who knows how JB will look in rounds two and three if KJ is still hanging around.
The thing with KJ is that he is highly inconsistent. Physically he has all of the tools to win fights he should win, yet he is up and down and often fights with a level of apathy that is discouraging.. Nevertheless, He looked good the WIs and I just believe this is a dog or pass situation. Personally I think that I'm going to put a bet on KJ's ML or KJ via TKO for action.. Acronym
...... BOL either way bro!
$17 for $520 Lobov KO + Misha KO + Borg SUB
Sidenote: This is by far, the least amount of units I have bet on a UFC event in a looooong time
Post weigh in money, kind of expected it. Hes much bigger than Spencer.
Pretty nice one for sure. Might have to fool around with some 3 team prop parlays before the show starts
Tailed MMAGF and Sham and went decent on Spencer.
For now Im on:
I think Im done. bet all dogs except for Burkman. Im really fading KJ Noons. I believe this is going to be one of those fights when after it is over I said "you stupid! Should have bet bigger on him!!".
Last event we were all pretty unified, seems like we're all over the place tonight. Nut surprising, this card is scary.
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