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Official UFN 82** Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.

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  1. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Is it really realistic to hope for an even better line on Werdum? +125 is pretty great considering how many ways he has to win this fight.
     
  2. Rawex -

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    Gonna bet on Werdum and Werdum by submission (+300). Decent odds.
     
  3. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Do you think we will get a better line on Werdum ML? I like sub @ +300. Gotta think Cain is gonna shoot for a takedown atleast once even though he got caught last time.
     
  4. Rawex -

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    Its possible (+250 at highest) i guess but dont think the lines are gonna move much (unless we start to hear rumours about one of the fighters being injured or something).

    Not sure what else he can do here? Werdum seems to be better standing up and Cain cant get upperhand in the clinch. Taking down Werdum is dangerous for anyone (even a fresh sealevel Cain).
     
  5. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Agree. I give Cain the boxing advantage but Werdum is for sure the better kickboxer overall.
     
  6. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Werdum Cain O2.5 -139?
     
  7. trident Water Belt

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    Both good points. Roy went five with Josh and three with Reem. He actually might have finished Reem if he hadnt gone for the takedown for no reason. He def had Reem hurt. I remember screaming in the bar, "finish him finish him Roy" He didnt.

    Rosholt is no Barnett or Reem. I dont see what he brings to this fight against the very experienced and very tough Nelson.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Wow def a great line
     
  9. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    idk if i love the o2.5, honestly.. maybe at evens..
     
  10. Medical Marijuana Man Buddah Buddah Buddah Banned

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    To be honest I'm not as confident in Werdum as I was in the first fight. His odds were incredible at the time.

    I'll bet small on Werdum and possibly medium on over 2.5 rds.

    I don't expect to bet much on this card.
     
  11. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Jared Rosholt +140 ML

    This is my favourite line in a while. I would be hitting Rosholt even at -150. Rosholt pretty comfortably beat Struve which we thought would be closer.

    I see Rosholt putting Nelson on the cage or even getting top position for most of the fight. Nelson is just such fade material now and everyone is well aware to watch out for the right hand.

    Yeah Nelson can win via 1 punch KO but I think Rosholt by decision here the vast majority of the time... hit it for 3.5u

    EDIT: I think Claudia's line will get better come fight time.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2016
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    got some of that thompson +665 dec just now, love it
     
  13. wack3d Silver Belt

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    i would rather take the over 1.5 and or ros dec i see no way he finishes nelson
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    For some reason I like Werdum DEC +625 and Werdum Split DEC +1395. IIRC, wasn't their last fight pretty close until Cain gassed out? That Mexico City altitude really had an effect on Cain like many others on the card. Even more of an effect on Cain since he's a heavyweight.
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yep I hit that yesterday, already down to +500 when I just looked. There might still be a bit of value even down to about +400 or so imo.
     
  16. chemmy Green Belt

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    Just played it at +500... still happy with that price.
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Nah it really wasn't that close. Cain landed a few shots but mostly Werdum got the better of the exchanges and beat Cain up pretty badly.

    That's why the whole altitude thing might be getting too much attention. Right from the start of the fight Werdum just looked like the better striker. And Cain couldn't outmuscle him and hold him against the cage. Once Cain tired the advantage tilted more but it really was Werdum winning from the start.

    I'd buy more into the "Cain underrated Werdum's striking too much" than I would the altitude argument (or at least as much). If you're thinking Cain fares better this time around, that would better explain him losing the striking battle from the first minute of the fight.

    I like Werdum at + odds guys, gonna go medium big on his ML.

    Also, for those liking Werdum by sub at +300 I'm going to say I think there's better value on Werdum by KO/TKO at +620. Cain shot a desperation takedown and got subbed last time yes. But had he not it's pretty likely Werdum TKO's him there. I think Werdum has become good enough in the clinch to hurt Cain with knees, elbows, etc. Yeah, I think a sub is a LITTLE more likely but not more than twice as likely if Werdum finishes.
     
  18. Bless Orange Belt

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  19. MYSTXRIVL Banned Banned

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    cain won first round through output and control around octagon but u could tell he was putting 100% energy and burned himself out, werdum did land the harder shots in 1st and cut him up.
    second round was all werdum every hit rocked cain, as as the round progressed started to really gas and third round he knew he didn't have anything left so went for the desperation takedowns and got caught.

    Im big on werdum I really hope the altitude doesn't make a difference in the next fight but cain looked like shit for this fight dont know any other fighters whose midsection is all flabby like that except roy nelson.
     
  20. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    After watching the fight again I do feel Werdum just SU won. I expect Werdum to win again but won't make a huge bet on it. I think Werdum has a better build, a bit taller and a bit longer reach. Cain seems really short and stalky next to him.

    I don't really like any of the props like TKO or sub as I think the outcome is so high variance here. I do really like the over and parlayed it with the Rothwell over.
     
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