Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.
i don't think it'll be up to scoggins; i don't think he can keep borg from taking him down
Scoggins' length will work against him against Borg, unless he can somehow land a stiff 2-piece to the midget's chin and stun him enough to get a quick win. I think Borg wins by decision most the time here, but a submission is obviously an option, too.
wtf? benavidez: no scorecards just went from -490 to -326
he's only been finished by mightymouse, and he's fought everyone at 135 and 125, and makovsky can't finish anyone
Mighty Mouse isn't the greatest KO machine himself. But it needs another miracle for Benavidez to get finished here.
Roy Nelson is down to -135.
So thanks to Frank Trigg i'm definitely more confident in Burkman. I pointed out earlier how in his Noons interview I found out how much Noons has going on that doesn't involve fighting. On the flipside, Burkman seems hungry for a win. Said his diet was shit at 170 and having a healthy one now has helped him a lot, said last year he was taking fights for money cause of life transitions (new home, new baby) rather than being focused on the win and now hes focused on going as far as he can in the sport before time is up.
Insightful stuff. Shame these Trigg interviews struggle to even get 100 views lol
no bet for edole tonight.
sometimes, there simply is no bet.
Reading peoples posts, I'm not seeing where the confidence with Sean Spencer is coming from. Every-time I have seen Pyle lose (save Covington who put on a wrestling/grinding performance Spencer cannot replicate - and lets not forget he was a -300+) it has been by KO against the likes of MacDonald ,Ellenburger, Brown, Mein etc. Spencer is not in the same class as any of these fighters, in any part of the game. Spencer has 'pillow fists' and simply cannot finish opponents. He may have the advantage on the feet with defensive head movement, youth and speed; but his only chance to win is by a hold your breath decision. Is that the guy I want to make my biggest bet of the year on?
Free money Rosholt though
Pyle just looked super weak against Colby (who I'm not that high on myself). And he hasn't been having those moments of success that a bit older fighters need to stay motivated and focused. Wouldn't be too surprised if Pyle called it quits after this one.
Great stuff in the thread per usual. Thanks to all who have contributed. Some thoughts...
Hendricks v Thompson
Should have played Hendricks earlier when he was at his cheapest. He looks great coming into this fight and this matchup favors him. Despite all the negativity after all of the weight cutting issues, he is IMO the best WW in the world when prepared, and he appears to be exactly that for this fight. I think he wins rather comfortably.
Nelson v Rosholt
Favor Nelson to take this in a step down in competition. Like his chances to keep Rosholt off of him enough to land shots on the feet and eventually take him out.
Cavalcante v OSP
May take a flier on Cavalcante at these odds, but not much of a feel on this fight.
Benavidez v Makovsky
I kind of feel we are forgetting how good Benavidez is. He has a Sherk like resume with his 4 losses coming to two guys who are...pretty good, Cruz and Demetrius Johnson. I also think the thought that he is in line for some kind of huge fall off at 31 is overblown. I would like to see solid signs of it first. Never been a fan of predicting a guy is "due" to fall off because of age before actually seeing it. It's guessing. Not to mention he is the younger fighter here by 2 years. With all this said I understand a value play on Makovsky with the current odds as he is obviously a solid fighter. I just feel these kind of upper tier, yet not elite fighters are the kind of guys Benavidez has made his career beating
Cirkunov v Nicholson
Pyle v Spencer
Solid lean on Spencer as plenty have stated. Like him to outstrike Pyle likely taking a decision but possible catching him.
Burkman v Noons
Medium lean on Burkman with more options available to him. Noons really seems to be on his way out and has never really impressed me to begin with.
Grabowski v Lewis
Slight lean to Lewis with a strength advantage and Grabowski making his UFC debut at 35, on nearly a year and a half layoff.
Borg v Scoggins
As many have said...favor Borg but odds are too steep.
Lahat v Rivas
I like Lahat but think there is value on Rivas at this price. Lahat is more skilled surely, but Rivas is a young powerful fighter that has shown a decent top game. Lahat has been controlled on the mat at times. I don't think Lahat will hurt Rivas on the feet and think it is reasonable to think Rivas can score take downs and control the fight.
Gall v Jackson
Lobov v White
Seems like a taylor-made match-up for Lobov, in the sense that this is someone who will bang it out with him on the feet. Leaning Lobov.
I listen to both of those, and Bloody Elbow's MMA Vivisection. I take all their info with a grain of salt. I mostly use these to see if they are identifying spots I have overlooked.
@FutureGOAT missed your post regarding this, but i'm in the same boat as cagebrain pretty much. I listen to vivisection and bookie beatdown on my lunch breaks at work during fight week, mainly for entertainment, further insight, and just cause I like hearing other educated opinions. Bookie beatdown always has these little inside info tidbits that I find interesting too. Example, one of the host's has a friend who trained with KJ Noons and told him how lazy KJ is lol.
If you don't have time for the shows, whatever. But if you have time and you are as obsessed with MMA as I am, I really enjoy those fight week shows.
EDIT also, as far as mmaoddsbreaker betting preview is concerned, I think its the worst one. Not saying its bad (even though it kind of is), but i'll only listen if i'm REALLY bored or while i'm falling asleep now adays. Its such a mechanical format so there is no chemistry at all between the hosts, and neither Kalikas nor the other guy seem as insightful or MMA educated as guys like Conor and Zane who really divulge into technical interpretations.
Rosholt via decision is 2/1 and Nelson via UD is 11/1 on skybet. Putting £100 on each would mean profit either way....I cant see Roy finishing him
Probably better just to bet that the fight goes the distance? 13/8 with Paddy Power or Coral. Unless you really like Nelson by decision and just want to hedge Rosholt.
JZ rd 1 is +1000
Its the only time hes dangerous and he is, actually dangerous
Put $10 on it, why not
Are you joking ? Roy's only chance of winning is by finish
Roy hasnt won a fight by decision since 2007 ! and Rosholt is super hittable and has been KO'd twice by guys who dont hit as hard as Roy
I hope you didnt finalize your Roy dec bet, its like throwing money away
Why is the money going in on Noons? Was passing this fight but now tempted to hit Burkman if I see -135 on any Eurobook (currently -143).
Roy decision isn't a bad bet at 12/1 with Bet365 (or even 11/1) but £100 is a lot to have on it.
Added Hendricks at -225 for £172 or so (max stake allowed at Betway, as pathetic as that is).
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