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Official UFN 82** Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by vkram, Jan 5, 2016.

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  1. Gametheory Brown Belt

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    Ellenberger no scorecards +145.
    Saff has only has 1 KO win and he most likely can't take Ellenberger down and submit him.

    He probably outstrikes him from the outside, but may get knocked out.
     
  2. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I put a little bit on Rosholt DEC +220. Only the first wave of props were released for the fight. Nothing else stood out unless you think Nelson can win a decision +850 without knocking Rosholt's block off.
     
  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Werdum DEC +775 is off, IMO. Too much finishing stock is being given to him here for finishing a Cain who had not fought for 20 months in Mexico City's very high altitude. Furthermore, Werdum was training there for at least a month and Cain showed up there like a week before the fight. I also can't help myself from adding to Werdum Split DEC +2000. I think that is off a lot, too. I can totally see this being a back and forth close fight that goes to a decision. I'm putting an extremely tiny bit on draw as well
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Man IDK. Cain gassing (never thought I'd say that) aside, neither guy actually showed great striking defense. Werdum certainly got the better of it from the start, but Cain landed on him too. Cain wasn't just tired, he was beaten up, and badly. Even if Cain comes in much sharper (very likely), that might mean he lands more as well which increases the likelihood of a finish. 25 minutes is a long time for this fight to go imo. Especially since with Werdum you basically take out the chance that Cain hits takedowns and controls the fight on the mat. Cain probably avoids it, which means HW's standing and trading for 5 rounds. Hard to see neither guy really hurting the other at some point.
     
  5. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm not straight up picking Werdum to win by decision, I'm just saying it has a lot of value at +775.

    Werdum itd +170
    Cain itd +195

    Werdum dec +775
    Cain dec +250

    Is it really that unlikely compared to the other three outcomes? Both guys are very durable. Agree to disagree I guess
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Okay yeah in that context I see your point. There's probably some value there even though it's pretty unlikely to hit. I'm not sure exactly where I'd cap it, but less than +775 for sure. Maybe around +550 to +600.
     
  7. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I was even thinking around +450/+500. I already have a little on +625

    On a similar note, Fight goes the distance prop is currently sitting at +165. Fight distance +165, Cain dec +250, Werdum dec +775. And in what should be a close fight that has a decent chance at going to a decision, Werdum Split DEC at +2000 is crazy
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    UFC 196 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
    Sat 2/6 1301 Rafael Cavalcante +260 o1½ -115
    10:30PM 1302 Ovince Saint Preux -380 u1½ -125
    UFC 196 - Flyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
    Sat 2/6 1401 Zach Makovsky +280 o2½ -280
    10:00PM 1402 Joseph Benavidez -400 u2½ +200


    hrmmmmmmmmmm climb, makovsky, climb?

    meeehhhh maybe feijao has value?
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I think Feijao has value at that price. I'm very scared of his age and wear and tear, but this is kind of a good style match up for him.
     
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    you think OSP stands with him?
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I def expect him to test the waters standing.

    I'm unsure what to do more i've thought about this though. If I didn't see the Glover fight i'd be more convinced in Feijao's value. OSP pot shots a lot more than combos, and needs range to get off his unorthodox strikes. You'd think a technical pocket boxer like Feijao and Glover could melt a guy like OSP on the inside, but from what I remember he did well standing with Glover. So idk. Def need to watch some tape for this one, now that i've thought more i'm wondering if OSP itd could be where i'll put my money.
     
  12. Scythe Brown Belt

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    I don't think I can believe in Feijao in the UFC, with upgraded testing, against anyone skillful. He's looked pretty terrible since getting popped.

    Hendricks/Thompson Decision at -145 is the line that stands out to me at 196 right now (just noticed, I've now bet the limit on this).
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2016
  13. vkram Brown Belt

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    Cain out, Stipe steps in as the replacement. What will the lines be like? I assume Stipe has been training since the Arlovski camp.
     
  14. MYSTXRIVL Banned Banned

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    CAIN INJURED OUT OF TITLE FIGHT LOLOLOLOL miocic coming in for him...
    idk if i believe someone can always get injured like this maybe he failed a test and they dont want bad publicity
     
  15. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Are you fkin kidding me? I had a bunch of bets I loved in that fight. FML
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Wow shocker of the century Cain is out with an injury. Smfh

    Werdum bout to be a reasonably big favorite
     
  17. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    ...fml
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i actually don't even mind, it would've been great to see werdum prove it wasn't a fluke to SO MANY doubters, but stipe deserves it.

    sucks for him that it's short notice.. but he didn't take any damage vs AA

    (and i promise i don't mean that as a shot at any of you who were on cain, just that i thought werdum has his #, maybe you'll get proven right down the road
     
  19. null Gold Belt

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    Damn, I loved my Werdum +140 action against Cain!
     
  20. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    That news has me livid. There were so many spots on that flight I liked and already bet on
     
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