Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 8, 2016.
Fuck you Anderson you fat bastard you better still win
Only plays on Bisping I'm making for now are
Bisping R4 +4000
Bisping R5 +5000
I will probably leave it like that unless his SD line reaches around +1000 again
Jacares takedowns and ability to cut off the cage are WORLDS better than Leites. Not to mention Jacares is the better grappler (though Leites is legit for sure). If people expect this to look like Jacare/Mousasi 2 I think they will be disappointed when it looks more like Mousasi/Latifi.
Yeah, I know that's why I said Leites is basically a lesser Jacare lol. The thing is though I don't think it's crazy to think that Leites is capable of taking two rounds via takedowns and pushing forward. I am expecting Mousasi to fight smart and pick apart Leites, but maybe Leites got a bit better since that Bisping fight and will be able to better deal with that type of strategy. Mousasi is legit on the ground so even if he does get the fight to the ground I don't think it's a guaranteed win for LEites by any means. I just hope the fight isn't a jab fest by Mousasi or a LnP fest by Leites. I think it's very possible for either to happen though
Cant see LnP for Letis at all. Mousasi is too technical and dynamic to just get out wrestled for 3 rounds by a mid tier grappler.
I don't think Leites is "mid tier" but yeah holding Mousasi down for 10 minutes is tough unless you are an elite grappler like Jacare or a great top heavy wrestler like King Mo. Leites is a very good grappler but so is Mousasi.
The issue Leites will have imo is even getting close enough to make it a grappling match. I think we may well see a boring jab-fest. Which my BR won't find boring at all LOL.
Makwan fight over 2.5 is +110. Am I missing something? He has been finishing fools and well.. Andy Ogle.
Y parlayed that with Mousasi-Leites over 2.5 at +230. Could miss but I love those odds
I do see value with the over for the Makwan fight but both of those guys will bring it, you're essentially betting on an outlier chance in the hopes that they don't look for the finish.
I haven't touched on this main event yet but a few notes
Anderson had a different approach and used a few different techniques in his last fight against Nick Diaz. He used a bunch of oblique kicks (he learned from Bones?) to keep Nick away. Nick never over extends himself and he doesn't leave himself open to counters in that way, which is what Anderson loves to get people to do is swing-miss-land the critical counter. Being that Nick was a pressuring southpaw, Anderson needed to play a different game where he needed to strike first and score points because his opportunity may not come if he were to sit back waiting to analyze like he usually does to open up rounds. He didn't clown so much in that fight because it wasn't a smart idea after his debacle against Weidman.
This is Bisping's best chance at catching Anderson late in his career but I still think Bisping will do Bisping things. The thing about Mike is that you get what you see with a fighter like him and there are usually no surprises with him. The guy keeps doing Bisping things like, kicking his trainer in the face doing a spinning attack lmao and just stupid shit like leaving his guard wide open for the likes of Rockhold and Belfort to kick it clean off. I remember sitting at home saying, it's gonna happen it's gonna happen and minutes later he's down for the count. He seems to have trouble with southpaw his entire career and I remember Karen Bryant even poking fun at him bringing it up. But it seems Bisping has finally wised up to it so he'll have his wits about it this time. One thing that I did think he's capable of executing and that on more than 1 occasion he's subtly said, he's going to get Anderson down on that mat and GnP him which I feel is his x-factor in turning his tide because Bisping has always had that in his arsenal and he's got a gas tank to not slip up like Chael did in that infamous 5th round fuck-up.
With the odds, I don't feel comfortable betting Anderson and big odds, nor do I feel good about betting Bumsbing. Value could lie in the distance line if Anderson has indeed changed his style to not rely on his reflexes so much. If that is true, Bisping's style could really match up well.
I'll end up taking either guy by decision when the Main Event approaches, nothing on it yet. I do however take these notes into account for Live Betting purposes if it's available. But I still think Anderson could clean his clock cuz it's Bisping y'all lol.
like crewman said, both guys are gonna bring it.
wilkinson's only ever had two decisions, himself. i think it ends early, actually.
If anything the more I look into it, the more the under seems to have value. A lot of heat before the fight and both guys like to go for the finish.
Hard to get a grasp on how that Mak-Wilk fight goes, but i'm always weary of playing the under when it comes to a matchup of two guys who like to grapple.
RE: the Makwan/Wilk fight. If anyone is thinking about playing the over, just play Wilk +3.5 -105. It basically coversa Wilk finish and the over, imo
finally got around to watching jarjar's last fight (danho) -- mehhhh. he's kinda lame. but ... omie just suckkkkssss when you can take him down.. and it seems like danho always just goes for td's.. and can actually keep a decent pace.. not terrible cardio even tho he's got huge tits...
idk. danho decision, maybe? omie never been finished, lnp special etc like hamilton and rosholt did?
+500 on bm
If by virtue that Omie's never been finished, I like his No Scorecards line at -130. I think Danho isn't really an MMA fighter he's just some big ogre. Omie according to his UFC.com profile at least has a martial arts background. He can kick and get it up there at least that's a finishing move.
yea i thought about it that play. might do that in conjunction with dano +500 dec
upon second viewing - friend pointed out that amirkhani didn't look good at weighins -- and actually, yea, i missed it -- he looked like he had a bit of a rough cut (so he and parke had tough cuts i think)
The stream I watched kind of skipped over makwan's weigh in, so I could not really tell. I did notice however, Wilk looked absolutely phenomenal
Danho isn't close the wrestler that Rosholt or Hamilton are though is he? Not from what I've seen. I like Omie but am on the over and fight goes distance too so if it's a lay not pray special by Danho I'm covered.
I agree. I don't see think Danho has the wrestling chops to score many TDs and stall it out.
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