Official UFN 84 Thread

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wack3d said:
damn jotko dec is only +141? was hoping for around +200 already got his ml at -110 so no way i will touch +140 wish i bet on the ml before it dropped.. he is my favorite bet on the card so far. just feel like he is better in all aspects of mma
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The dude is constantly improving I agree I love his money line. Obv the opener was better but still
 
michi972 said:
Askham or Mousasi or Allen - who's the safest?
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Someone's doing more parlays again, eh?

They're all different. There's no clear-cut answer.

I'll answer in a different way: mousasi has the toughest opponent by far of the 3 and is the least secure winner of the 3
 
Parke split dec +1200 Ladbrokes. Love this!

Bisping split +1400 Ladbrokes.
 
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What do you think of Amirkhani or Svenson?
 
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michi972 said:
What do you think about amirkhani?What do you think of Amirkhani or Svenson?
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Hard to have any solid thoughts on Makwan. He def looked good, if a bit one dimensional, outside of UFC, but that was years ago. Since arriving hes crushed the two guys hes fought, so this fight with Wilkinson should give us a grasp on where hes at and how good he really is.
 
I have posted a few timed here but gwnerally only if im very confident in an outcome.
That said i felt compelled to post about something.
I don't understand all the bettors in this forum that hedge so much. I see so often that someone will be on someone and hedge on the other fighter by decision, or something to that effect.
If you have a lean, stay on that. Over the long run, youll make more $ using less hedges
If you really feel a hedge is necessary, don't bet both sides -bet on that outcome to avoid paying juice twice. For instance, just as an example, if one was to bet Silva and hedge partially on Bisping by dec, don't do that. Bet a little less on Siva and make a bet on Bisping not itd. If you do the math, you'll see you'll profit more this way
 
so i'm all aboard the breese train.

that said, dont bet RD 1 -115.. "does not start rd 2" is -112, hehe.

i'm gonna hit that. not big, but man, breese is so legit.
 
Rasdun said:
I have posted a few timed here but gwnerally only if im very confident in an outcome.
That said i felt compelled to post about something.
I don't understand all the bettors in this forum that hedge so much. I see so often that someone will be on someone and hedge on the other fighter by decision, or something to that effect.
If you have a lean, stay on that. Over the long run, youll make more $ using less hedges
If you really feel a hedge is necessary, don't bet both sides -bet on that outcome to avoid paying juice twice. For instance, just as an example, if one was to bet Silva and hedge partially on Bisping by dec, don't do that. Bet a little less on Siva and make a bet on Bisping not itd. If you do the math, you'll see you'll profit more this way
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I agree i very very rarely hedge. Sink or swim!
 
Rasdun said:
I have posted a few timed here but gwnerally only if im very confident in an outcome.
That said i felt compelled to post about something.
I don't understand all the bettors in this forum that hedge so much. I see so often that someone will be on someone and hedge on the other fighter by decision, or something to that effect.
If you have a lean, stay on that. Over the long run, youll make more $ using less hedges
If you really feel a hedge is necessary, don't bet both sides -bet on that outcome to avoid paying juice twice. For instance, just as an example, if one was to bet Silva and hedge partially on Bisping by dec, don't do that. Bet a little less on Siva and make a bet on Bisping not itd. If you do the math, you'll see you'll profit more this way
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Okay so let's say I like Silva vs Bisping and am gonna bet Silva ML at -310. I have $100 I want to bet on this fight. I think Bisping's only chance of winning is via dec.

Silva ML is -310
Bisping by dec is +375
Not Bisping it'd is about -975 I think

How would you ration the $ that you thinks makes the most sense if you were going to hedge?
 
EzFlyer said:
so i'm all aboard the breese train.

that said, dont bet RD 1 -115.. "does not start rd 2" is -112, hehe.

i'm gonna hit that. not big, but man, breese is so legit.
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Just read he cuts from 205. Man he is going to look two possibly three weight classes bigger than his poor opponent.
 
EzFlyer said:
so i'm all aboard the breese train.

that said, dont bet RD 1 -115.. "does not start rd 2" is -112, hehe.

i'm gonna hit that. not big, but man, breese is so legit.
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Was just about to and saw Breese KO/TKO back down to -135. Like that much better. Hitting that now.
 
MidgardSerpent said:
Mousasi was the last standing chin in mma. I like the idea of the mythical fighter that can't lose or can't get ko'd. And I like Mousasi because he's Dutch, talented, and a nice guy, so that loss was pretty heart breaking to me.

I don't think he took a single hit from Hunt in that fight though. just played it smart and got it to the ground...
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Thing is, the shot that it took to knock him out was literally as hard as a shot could be, Jumping spinning back kick, by an extremely explosive athlete, and he ducked into it. That set of circumstances will not happen again for another 20 years in the UFC. And he still wasn't KO'ed, just rocked.
 
EzFlyer said:
could sub him after hurting him, tho..
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Yeah I just came to say that. If you look at Breese' record he does finish by sub fairly often. I made that mistake already of going hard on Cirkunov TKO.

I am totally on board the Breese train but what about K Taro as a dog? I feel contrarian saying this but man his KO line is over +1900.
 
There's value on Brad Pickett.. he's fighting in London against a striker. The question really becomes how old and damaged he is at 37. I think he's still putting in the time to train and he's still motivated. Both guys have been rocked multiple times in their careers due to their fighting styles so it could end up being a 50/50 fight. I'm taking him ITD.
 
EzFlyer said:
could sub him after hurting him, tho..
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For sure but given that we all think Breese is as close to a lock as possible, I'd rather get 2 extra rds and pay a bit more juice on the KO/TKO line. I think the sub while possible is pretty unlikely.
 
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