Official UFN 85 Thread - Brisbane - Hunto vs Murrrr

Status
Not open for further replies.
You should just take his ML at -175 instead of KO at -150

Agree with Rawex since it's 5 rounder. To me it's like 5% this fight goes all 25 minutes, and then Hunt would still have to win the decision. So Hunt by dec is like 3% chance of happening imo (LOL and just checked odds and...yep Not Hunt by 5 rd dec is -3485, so right on what I was thinking). Hunt by sub is maybe .5% chance of happening, 1% tops (Not Hunt by sub is -5300).

Let's assume Hunt wins (not a given of course but for the sake of this discussion). We can even bump his chances of by dec and by sub. Let's say:

Hunt by dec is 7% (again, assuming a Hunt win)
Hunt by sub is 3%
Hunt by KO/TKO is 90%

I think that value is still to play Hunt by KO/TKO.

I think it's worth the risk to get the -150 vs -175.
 
Issue is can hunt go 25 minutes as sham was saying on previous page, lack of decent camp? no AKA @ thailand and he was weighing 290lbs 1 month ago, sounds like hunt relaxed bit too much!

Mir with a camp still can't be trusted, but id love to see that duffy mir version just don't ever see that happening not against hunt at least.

Hunt + magny parlay sounds risky at this point, when the fuller lines are released the usual suspects like shoeface, jouban, huna, scoggins and branded names are gonna get hit hard. Anyhow 2 weeks to go so plenty of time to debate it !
 
Call me crazy but I took Mir by sub, i'll play "fight doesn't start round 2" if its decent, and livebet. Think thats the best route to go. Hunt was in the best shape of his life for the Bigfoot fight, a guy who is shot, and Hunt looked ridiculously gunshy. He has put a lot of weight back on since that fight. Plus the drubbing to Stipe to cap off a long career of getting decked. Just not a guy I can trust anymore at -150 KO line, or even his ML, against someone as good as Mir, especially if Mir decided to drop some damn weight after gassing so bad last fight
 
I disagree. It makes no sense to me. I'd punch myself in the nuts if I played KO -150 and he somehow won by sub or dec. Obviously highly unlikely, but I'd rather take the extra 25 as insurance.
 
sell me on case? (not disagreeing but wanna hear why)

agreed otherwise

Case is athletic, calm, solid fundamentals, well-rounded. I think he's a really solid young fighter and dangerous everywhere. And a smart fighter, too. Uses a jab well. Uses a variety of kicks. He's just smooth and poised. Has some defensive issues at times, but he's generally bright and reads the fight well. Also makes himself long, which Matthews will struggle with IMO.

Matthews will be a lot shorter (fights small), he's still green, he panics when things don't go his way. He's explosive, but susceptible to stupid stuff here and there. I haven't seen much fight IQ from him. I think Case and his length & fundamentals will be difficult for Matthews.

Matthews was choked out by Vick from sidecontrol. He was very, very close to being finished by Arreola. He wings his shot, darts in with his head down hoping to land a hook, telegraphs a lot of his movement. He's so athletic that he gets away with it against slower (Vick) or subpar (Rocha) competition, but against a solid, smart fighter, he really gets exposed.

I think Matthews looks to get this to the mat, but Case already demonstrated solid defensive ground skills versus Cabral. Matthews also has poor td technique, muscling his opponents to the ground rather than using technique. Leaves his arm or head exposed at times. He's young, so this can be corrected, but he's consistently made these kinds of mistakes. As mentioned, he wings shots using pure upper body. Even if he's in good shape, in a tough fight he'll gas. Little defense in the standup. Rushes in for his combinations, doesn't utilise reach advantage (or any reach to speak of). I view Matthews as a more reliable Erick Silva: great athlete, explosive, raw. Oh, and I suspect Matthews will have a speed advantage, but that will be negated by Case's superior fight IQ, timing, technique.
 
Call me crazy but I took Mir by sub, i'll play "fight doesn't start round 2" if its decent, and livebet. Think thats the best route to go. Hunt was in the best shape of his life for the Bigfoot fight, a guy who is shot, and Hunt looked ridiculously gunshy. He has put a lot of weight back on since that fight. Plus the drubbing to Stipe to cap off a long career of getting decked. Just not a guy I can trust anymore at -150 KO line, or even his ML, against someone as good as Mir, especially if Mir decided to drop some damn weight after gassing so bad last fight

I hit Mir by sub too at +405 when I put my Hunt bet in (actually after as props weren't out when I bet Hunt). Mir is my favorite all time fighter and I'm an old school guy (followed MMA hardcore since mid-late 90's and even had a passing interest right from the start though I didn't know what the hell I was watching LOL).

This is a fight Mir can win, I just feel like he's fallen in love a bit with his boxing lately (which has improved dramatically to be fair). I'm sort of hoping $ comes in on Hunt and I can freeroll Mir later plus have that little bet on his sub line. If not I'll still root for Mir by sub since at this point I'd take a tiny profit from that happening.
 
Last edited:
I disagree. It makes no sense to me. I'd punch myself in the nuts if I played KO -150 and he somehow won by sub or dec. Obviously highly unlikely, but I'd rather take the extra 25 as insurance.

Yeah I'm not saying it's a moronic play or anything. It's close. Just depends on if you want to go with a little more risk for a bit higher payout. That plus where you personally cap each outcome. As I said, I think if Hunt wins it's a minimum of 90% chance by KO. So paying the added 25 isn't worth it. If you cap that % as lower (say, 80% or something) then it's for sure worth it.

Oh, and the funniest part of all this? I hit Hunt -175 before any props out thinking more $ would come in on him. So I'm actually on Hunt ML just waiting to see if we get any movement. I don't want to add to him so I'm leaving the -150 KO line alone for now.
 
Nice. I'm on Magny but I feel like sometimes when literally the entire group of regs itt is on one side it actually hinders my capping (or more specifically my BR management). I'm gonna be on Magny for a medium amount at the least. But I need to hear a contrary opinion to help with how much a position I take on Magny and how (and how much) I end up hedging. (I already have a small bet on Lombard by KO at +345 to hedge a bit off the fairly big bets I have on Magny).

So O what do you see as Lombard's path to victory? We saw Maia grapplefuck Magny, but that's Maia. Magny outgrappled and outscrambled Gastelum, and I'd rate Gastelum's overall grappling game as better than Lombard's. I have a hard time seeing Lombard winning a technical striking battle from range. Magny is more busy and has a big reach advantage. Lombard quite obviously has the power edge, but he tends to load up on his punches at times. To me Magny seems like a guy who's still right in his prime yet always improving while Lombard is 38 and coming off a suspension for PED's. What am I missing here? What's Lombard's clearest path to victory? And why is he favored here?

To keep it simple, I think Lombard has a chance at a (T)Ko or decision while Magny's main chance is a decision. Lombard has never been finished and he's had a shitload of fights. I'm waiting to see how far the line swings, but I'm actually more curious to see if Magny gets favored to where they release the +3.5 for Lombard.
 
Case is athletic, calm, solid fundamentals, well-rounded. I think he's a really solid young fighter and dangerous everywhere. And a smart fighter, too. Uses a jab well. Uses a variety of kicks. He's just smooth and poised. Has some defensive issues at times, but he's generally bright and reads the fight well. Also makes himself long, which Matthews will struggle with IMO.

Matthews will be a lot shorter (fights small), he's still green, he panics when things don't go his way. He's explosive, but susceptible to stupid stuff here and there. I haven't seen much fight IQ from him. I think Case and his length & fundamentals will be difficult for Matthews.

Matthews was choked out by Vick from sidecontrol. He was very, very close to being finished by Arreola. He wings his shot, darts in with his head down hoping to land a hook, telegraphs a lot of his movement. He's so athletic that he gets away with it against slower (Vick) or subpar (Rocha) competition, but against a solid, smart fighter, he really gets exposed.

I think Matthews looks to get this to the mat, but Case already demonstrated solid defensive ground skills versus Cabral. Matthews also has poor td technique, muscling his opponents to the ground rather than using technique. Leaves his arm or head exposed at times. He's young, so this can be corrected, but he's consistently made these kinds of mistakes. As mentioned, he wings shots using pure upper body. Even if he's in good shape, in a tough fight he'll gas. Little defense in the standup. Rushes in for his combinations, doesn't utilise reach advantage (or any reach to speak of). I view Matthews as a more reliable Erick Silva: great athlete, explosive, raw. Oh, and I suspect Matthews will have a speed advantage, but that will be negated by Case's superior fight IQ, timing, technique.

Good stuff , appreciate you taking the time

I think I'm on board, but gonna mull it over

He recovered super well against arreola. I always appreciate that
 
Nice. I'm on Magny but I feel like sometimes when literally the entire group of regs itt is on one side it actually hinders my capping (or more specifically my BR management). I'm gonna be on Magny for a medium amount at the least. But I need to hear a contrary opinion to help with how much a position I take on Magny and how (and how much) I end up hedging. (I already have a small bet on Lombard by KO at +345 to hedge a bit off the fairly big bets I have on Magny).

So O what do you see as Lombard's path to victory? We saw Maia grapplefuck Magny, but that's Maia. Magny outgrappled and outscrambled Gastelum, and I'd rate Gastelum's overall grappling game as better than Lombard's. I have a hard time seeing Lombard winning a technical striking battle from range. Magny is more busy and has a big reach advantage. Lombard quite obviously has the power edge, but he tends to load up on his punches at times. To me Magny seems like a guy who's still right in his prime yet always improving while Lombard is 38 and coming off a suspension for PED's. What am I missing here? What's Lombard's clearest path to victory? And why is he favored here?
First of all.. Im on Magny kind of big at +120 but just playing with the odds. I think he will be fav somewhere down the road and I expect to take Lombard at + odds too. If that does not happen I still favor Neil on this one.

Buuut...

RE grappling: Lombard has an incredible clinch. Just look how he ragdolled Jake Shields. He threw him around like nothing and he was hanging on Jakes guard without doing much but he won rounds like that.
Hector grappling is really underrated because he prefers to stand and trade since he has excellent hands too. I dont think Magny wants to grapple with the stronger and most technical grappler.

Lombard had trouble with bigger guys in the past and somehow he could not do anything when he had a big reach disadvantage. His fight with the barbarian was embarassing. And if there is some true in "you are only as good as your last fight" Lombard did not look that good against mid-tier WW Burkman, even being on steroids.
When he pulls the trigger he have the power to finish anybody but he tends to be too tentative.

Magny is making huge improvements on his overall game and seems to have good fighting IQ. For example, when he realized that he could take Gastelum down and work him on the ground (which I dont think it was his original plan) he went all for it and won a clear (split my ass) decision against a really good fighter.

This is the most interesting fight of all because I always saw Lombard as a top WW who can beat anybody in a good night but the fact that the guy is 38, coming off PEDs (does not look like tho) and fought only twice in the last 2 years are big red flaws.
 
Good stuff , appreciate you taking the time

I think I'm on board, but gonna mull it over

He recovered super well against arreola. I always appreciate that

I agree. And the counter argument is that Matthews is young and raw, so he can improve a lot. And that he's pretty explosive. He has a shot to win, certainly, but I do like Case at these current odds.
 
First of all.. Im on Magny kind of big at +120 but just playing with the odds. I think he will be fav somewhere down the road and I expect to take Lombard at + odds too. If that does not happen I still favor Neil on this one.

Buuut...

RE grappling: Lombard has an incredible clinch. Just look how he ragdolled Jake Shields. He threw him around like nothing and he was hanging on Jakes guard without doing much but he won rounds like that.
Hector grappling is really underrated because he prefers to stand and trade since he has excellent hands too. I dont think Magny wants to grapple with the stronger and most technical grappler.

Lombard had trouble with bigger guys in the past and somehow he could not do anything when he had a big reach disadvantage. His fight with the barbarian was embarassing. And if there is some true in "you are only as good as your last fight" Lombard did not look that good against mid-tier WW Burkman, even being on steroids.
When he pulls the trigger he have the power to finish anybody but he tends to be too tentative.

Magny is making huge improvements on his overall game and seems to have good fighting IQ. For example, when he realized that he could take Gastelum down and work him on the ground (which I dont think it was his original plan) he went all for it and won a clear (split my ass) decision against a really good fighter.

This is the most interesting fight of all because I always saw Lombard as a top WW who can beat anybody in a good night but the fact that the guy is 38, coming off PEDs (does not look like tho) and fought only twice in the last 2 years are big red flaws.

i think he might have ragdolled jake shields because he was drugged up to the eyeballs man. not saying he isn't a very good fighter, but as you say, 38 and probably sober for the first time in the UFC against a surging, younger, taller fighter who knows how to use his reach, seems like a v bad match up.
 
what is tehuna's strategy here, shoot + GNP?

apparently bosse has zero ground game, not that i've ever seen it (think rampage jackson mentioned it in an interview somewhere)
 
Interested in Case at that line. Researched and bet him against Cabral and altho if i remember rightly i questioned his fight iq at points as he was far too happy to grapple with Cabral he did hold his own and fight out of some tough spots. Need to watch tape on Matthews but lost to Vick, in trouble against Arreola, doesnt bode well against Case.

Think Matthews is an overrated prospect personally.
 
From looking at records is Jouban going to open @ -500 territory?
 
Think the over is definitely the best bet for Case vs Jake and live betting. Such a close fight on paper
 
what is tehuna's strategy here, shoot + GNP?

apparently bosse has zero ground game, not that i've ever seen it (think rampage jackson mentioned it in an interview somewhere)

Yes, I think the huna will shoot

Te huna didn't just 'get destroyed' by marq like many think.. He had a lot of good moments.. He also looked huge at 185

He generally always favors a ground attack, anyway
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top