Official UFN 85 Thread - Brisbane - Hunto vs Murrrr

[jwms]

Think the over is definitely the best bet for Case vs Jake and live betting. Such a close fight on paper

Really? I wouldn't touch the over. Matthews got choked out by Vick pretty early. He almost lost to Arreola round one. He's tenacious, sure, but he's reckless. Case could definitely finish him at any point in the fight.

Also, Matthews is explosive. He's a young, brazen fighter that gets reckless. I wouldn't bet o2.5 on such a guy ever, really.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Really? I wouldn't touch the over. Matthews got choked out by Vick pretty early. He almost lost to Arreola round one. He's tenacious, sure, but he's reckless. Case could definitely finish him at any point in the fight.

Also, Matthews is explosive. He's a young, brazen fighter that gets reckless. I wouldn't bet o2.5 on such a guy ever, really.

Think he made the rookie mistake of feeling himself too much. He was in complete control of the Vick fight, but Vick stood patient and waited for his moment as Jake got more and more aggressive. Plus, Vick is a much lethal finisher than Case. I mean, Case decisioned Trevino....

I see a three round grappling match happening. I think there is definitely a good argument betting either side of this one is just as lethal as taking the over. Case didn't exactly look like a top level prospect vs Cabral

 

[Card]

Opening odds -

Current odds -

 

[Card]

Red corner fighters on the left... fighters that will walk out second.

 

[Card]

Favorites on the left: (guesses)

Mark Hunt vs. Frank Mir
Hector Lombard vs. Neil Magny
Johnny Case vs. Jake Matthews
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Daniel Kelly
James Te Huna vs. Steve Bosse
Seo Hee Ham vs. Bec Rawlings
Alan Jouban vs. Brendan O'Reilly
Justin Scoggins vs. Ben Nguyen
Viscardi Andrade vs. Richard Walsh
Chad Laprise vs. Alan Patrick
Abel Trujillo vs. Ross Pearson
Rin Nakai vs. Leslie Smith
Daniel Hooker vs. Mark Eddiva

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hoping for good odds on Andrade. Think he could be a sleeper bet, I like him to beat Walsh a lot

 

[Dooze]

Like the odds on Hunt, Shoeface is too short to bet straight, don't want to have to bumg loads on him to get a decent return. Maybe a 2 man parlay or u1.5 / shoeface ITD.

Probably be on Hooker and Jouban too, though depends on the odds.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

i think he might have ragdolled jake shields because he was drugged up to the eyeballs man. not saying he isn't a very good fighter, but as you say, 38 and probably sober for the first time in the UFC against a surging, younger, taller fighter who knows how to use his reach, seems like a v bad match up.

Lombard has high level Judo skills and has transitioned perfect to MMA. HIs throws are really good and most fighters are not used to those kind of techniques.
He did not threw down Shields with pure strenght, he did it with technique so drugs have nothing to do with that.

It is true that Magny is a bad matchup for him in paper and styles make fights. But we are talking about a guy who has been top notch for a while (a little inconsistent tho) against a still improving up and coming fighter.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Lombard has high level Judo skills and has transitioned perfect to MMA. HIs throws are really good and most fighters are not used to those kind of techniques.
He did not threw down Shields with pure strenght, he did it with technique so drugs have nothing to do with that.

It is true that Magny is a bad matchup for him in paper and styles make fights. But we are talking about a guy who has been top notch for a while (a little inconsistent tho) against a still improving up and coming fighter.

I think there is a strong argument against Lombard being a legit top notch fighter. His biggest wins are Shields, Palhares, and Marquardt. He is a stylistic nightmare for those guys. He struggled bad w a fading Okami, was not overly impressive against a sick Burkman, and lost to mid tier Boetsch.

 

[jwms]

The more I think about it, the more I like Magny over Lombard.

I haven't re-watched any fights yet, but Magny's been consistently improving over varied competition (varied styles). He's demonstrated good fight IQ. Good ability to adapt. Good fight prep. Has started using his length better. Tends to play to his strengths quite decently. Obviously hard worker, focused. He throws good volume, he's pretty durable. I don't see Lombard subbing him, and I see Magny definitely out-pointing him. And I don't see Lombard KOing Magny; Magny's chin has proven solid + he's quite decent fighting at range now (which used to be a weakness of his).

I'm not sure I see a likely path to victory for Lombard.

 

[Sham5916910]

Anyone tell me about Oreilly? Is this a squash match?

Actually like this card for betting. Like Hunts odds REALLY like Magny as a dog and Shoeface Jouban are good parlay fodder.

Scoggins looked great against Borg. Not seen his opponent i dont think but two impressive wins. Can someone break him down for me? Want to bet Scoggins but his opponent has two 1st round wins so not sure i can make an informed enough decision.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Yeah I agree. I am very impressed with Scoggins but don't know enough about his opponent to make an informed bet.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Anyone tell me about Oreilly? Is this a squash match?

Actually like this card for betting. Like Hunts odds REALLY like Magny as a dog and Shoeface Jouban are good parlay fodder.

Scoggins looked great against Borg. Not seen his opponent i dont think but two impressive wins. Can someone break him down for me? Want to bet Scoggins but his opponent has two 1st round wins so not sure i can make an informed enough decision.

We'll see how Jouban deals with the pressure wrestling O'Reilly is likely to bring, but as long as he handles that well this should be a good win for him.

Nguyen is no joke. Borg showed how much work he needs on his standup, but still decked Scoggins in the pocket with some good shots. If Nguyen can get in those same positions, Scoggins could be in trouble. The only thing idk about Nguyen is how his defensive wrestling is. If its good, he could be a very solid under dog pick.

 

[Oblivian]

I'll definitely bet Nguyen if he gets inflated. This is coming from a guy who bet Scoggins over Borg. Nguyen has been almost flawless in both of his fights.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Think the over is definitely the best bet for Case vs Jake and live betting. Such a close fight on paper

I like the over too. Sure, Jake got finished by James Vick but it's no big deal imo since Vick does have a very nice guillotine choke. I have 1u on Case, i like him as a slight fav due to higher fight IQ and being a lot sharper on the feet.

My biggest play so far is 3u on Magny +124. I like his rapid improvements in all areas of MMA (especially in grappling as we saw vs Gastelum). The fact that he is very good at using his reach is also great vs the much shorter opponent in Lombard. As many have mentioned, Lombard is 38 and has been tested 3 times by USADA so he will probably (hopefully) be clean for this fight. Weigh-ins will be very interesting.

Also have 2u on Ham. She is game as fuck. Rawlings should probably be cut.

My USADA-effect predictions for this card are Te Huna and Matthews.

 

[Ukram]

Think mir was a late notice replacement for AA but could be wrong, could explain why his cardio and belly fat was present on such a short camp.

Do like case but yeah live betting the simplest answer to 2 young prospects going at it.

Such a shame pearson/abel is on early prelims, maybe have to adjust plays on that one pearson decision and abel finish prop I reckon.

Another fight I like is chad vs alves, both pretty good fighters but both been knocked out in there last fights, may have to do some tape watching on alves, sounds like the overs could hit on that one given that both suffered first loss and ko loss too.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Think mir was a late notice replacement for AA but could be wrong, could explain why his cardio and belly fat was present on such a short camp.

Do like case but yeah live betting the simplest answer to 2 young prospects going at it.

Such a shame pearson/abel is on early prelims, maybe have to adjust plays on that one pearson decision and abel finish prop I reckon.

Another fight I like is chad vs alves, both pretty good fighters but both been knocked out in there last fights, may have to do some tape watching on alves, sounds like the overs could hit on that one given that both suffered first loss and ko loss too.

He wasn't a replacement, but the fight was booked on short notice. Thing is, Mir has sported the pot belly for his last couple of fights.

I'm also leaning Pearson by dec in that fight

 

[EzFlyer]

Favorites on the left: (guesses)

Mark Hunt vs. Frank Mir
Hector Lombard vs. Neil Magny
Johnny Case vs. Jake Matthews
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Daniel Kelly
James Te Huna vs. Steve Bosse
Seo Hee Ham vs. Bec Rawlings
Alan Jouban vs. Brendan O'Reilly
Justin Scoggins vs. Ben Nguyen
Viscardi Andrade vs. Richard Walsh
Chad Laprise vs. Alan Patrick
Abel Trujillo vs. Ross Pearson
Rin Nakai vs. Leslie Smith
Daniel Hooker vs. Mark Eddiva

idk on a few of those bottom ones

 

[Agent Mulder]

You guys dont see Trujillo imposing a wrestling game on Pearson?

 

[EzFlyer]

Anyone tell me about Oreilly? Is this a squash match?

Actually like this card for betting. Like Hunts odds REALLY like Magny as a dog and Shoeface Jouban are good parlay fodder.

Scoggins looked great against Borg. Not seen his opponent i dont think but two impressive wins. Can someone break him down for me? Want to bet Scoggins but his opponent has two 1st round wins so not sure i can make an informed enough decision.

o'reilly is a grinder. he's an aussie version of a lnp'er. (in other words, he isn't as good as it as some ncaa wrestler might be). he should be 155. he's been 155 before. he needs to make the fight super ugly, stick to jouban like glue. he doesn't really have striking to exploit jouban's chin

nguyen is a striker for the most part. and he's looked awesome so far in the ufc. great backmount after rocking benoit last fight, too, so he has skills there as well. even tho scoggins has his karate background, i think he's in danger on feet. if scoggins is smart, he'd come with a wrestling heavy gameplan. scoggins deserved favorite.