Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 9, 2016.
fuck, i mean, how do we not bet rothwell here?
completely different trajectories.. jds so gunshy last fight..
At least someone agrees with me. Was surprised to see how many were on JDS when this fight was announced, i'm all over Ben at this price.
I'm on Ben too. Basically I think the two beatings JDS took from Cain aged him a ton. He looked SLOW vs Stipe and not much better vs Overeem.
I've said it before and I'll keep saying it. At HW, durability means SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much more than at lower weight classes. I will take a less skilled guy who's more durable at HW every time and end winning more than I lose.
I'm also on Rothwell. JDS looking to stick and move with his usual overland rights? JDS avoids the clinch like the plague so it kind of makes him a 1 dimensional fighter. He probably doesn't wanna showcase any newfound D1 wrestling abilities either in this fight or else he'll get his neck snatched.
But the faster HWs have been able to outstrike Rothwell and he does absorb a ton of damage usually in most of his fights, but for a 5 rounder, I think this helps Ben alot if he is able to pressure JDS til he breaks. Assuming both guys come in excellent cardio.
Do you guys expect Rothwell's line to rise a little more? It has been steadily increasing since the big drop after odds were released.
Well. I havn't decided who to bet yet but keep in mind that this is a much better matchup for JDS compared to Reem. Reem is a high level technical kickboxer that can beat JDS at his own game and has a bigger arsenal of strikes aswell. Rothwell isn't a good technical striker but can land a bomb. However, USADA seems to have destroyed JDS so who knows how he will look.
Anyone know anything about Taisumov's opponent? Gutted Magomedov is out.
i know next to nothing about:
alessio di chirico
that's 7 complete unknowns for me.
i can tell anyone about any of the other fighters, but SEVEN people i don't know in a ufc? sounds like a euro-card.
I dont know half these guys either but I am excited for the return of Ngannou!
Rothwell/JDS o1.5 at -140
Think I'm gonna hit this. There's of course always risk at HW in betting overs but I think there's value here. I think at this point in his career JDS is going to tend to be more cautious. He was never a guy who just went balls out at the beginning of fights, but I think he'll be even more conservative going forward. And Rothwell is similar in that he''s okay with a grinding type fight. He's not scared at all to stand and trade in the pocket but nor does he seek it out.
Plus I really like when fights scheduled for 5 rounds have over/unders at 1.5. I have no data to back this up, but it at least **seems** to me that guys are less aggressive early in 5 rounders, even at HW. Be it because they are conscious of gassing too early or because there's not the desperation to win rd 1, it feels like guys are far more willing to have a round of feeling each other out when it's a 5 rounder.
I think I like it too. They are both relatively slow starters
Damir is pretty solid, but ffs hes fighting Taisumov in his debut.....smh
Tybura is one of the more high profile HWs outside the UFC for awhile. Would recommend his fight with Puetz, who the UFC NEEDS to sign EDIT fuck forgot Nemkov beat him lol, remember it was very good. I'm worried just cause Tim Johnson is a big American wrestler, but Tybura should win this, he belongs in the UFC and has fought the best guys outside of it consistently. Hoping for a close line, I think the hug is all Johnson has here and is outskilled everywhere.
No clue who these other guys are
As a JDS fan, I just can't bet against him. It's crazy to think Rothwell can beat JDS. You would have been dummy smacked for saying this a couple years ago. My how the times have changed.
I'm gonna bet small on JDS cause I'm not confident.
Bojan Mihajlovic is out, Curtis Blaydes (5-0) steps in to face Francis Ngannou.
his last fight
I assume this one is an amateur fight as it isn't listed on his sherdog profile
his first amateur fight
his last amateur fight
Oh Lord, give me a good line on Blaydes. Awesome fight.
Yea the worldwide forum has been hanging of his nuts forever. Guess I gotta watch some tape.
"Paul L" who does "Unsigned heavyweights" thread over at the world wide forum has Blaydes as his number one prospect here: the http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/unsigned-heavyweights-thread-four.3199049/
Ngannou got taken down in his debut, will be interesting if he can stuff Blayde's take downs and what happens if he can't. I guess Ngannou has the advantage on the feet whilst Blaydes is the better wrestler.
lol @ the double-hammerfist thing in his last fight (blades) -- did he think he had a bat in his hands or something?
Are you effin kidding me??? JDS a dog to Ben Rothwell... Sorry but the oddsmakers are drunk off mead or they're not even trying to set lines correctly for MMA. This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA. There is so much value with JDS at his current line +101 it's going to be like taking candy from a baby, quite literally! I'm hammering this play for more than my usual 1% because when the bookies make mistakes you have to capitalize on them as these opportunities are few and far between.
I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175. The only reason I can fathom JDS is a dog is due to the fact he lost to Overeem while Big Ben won against Allistair. So now the oddsmakers are setting lines based on MMA math and not due to the main factors being the fighters themselves. If I wanted to YOLO and not give a tooting damn I'd just go all-in or risk half my bankroll on JDS. I won't now that I'm wiser with my bankroll. This is one of the exceedingly rare times you will have to take advantage of the bookies so of course I'll be unloading on this play for around 5% of my roll.
I know Rothwell has been collecting a bunch of wins which is nice and all but this is a horrible stylistic match for him. He's going to get KO'd by JDS late first or early second as I see a desperate JDS going guns blazing.
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