Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

[Jae Gibbz]

More props out

GG SUB +400
Stanciu SUB +880
Entwistle R1 +175
Perez R3 +1375

What I got so far

 

[Sadistics]

I'm liking Blaydes Rd 3 +1350, Lewis Rd 3 +900, dalby Rd 3 +1325, and pokrajac Rd 1 +800

 

[EzFlyer]

More props out

GG SUB +400
Stanciu SUB +880
Entwistle R1 +175
Perez R3 +1375

What I got so far

thx for the heads up

my first instinct here is velickovic sub +455

honorable mention ngannou KO +180, but idk

man i just see general tendencies for a ton of these fights. hard to be confident in any specific outcomes. on the ENTIRE card.

what's a likely outcome on any of the 13 fights? hit me w/one, someone? like, any of the 13 fights... what's a likely outcome for a fighter?

 

[Soccer Steve]

thx for the heads up

my first instinct here is velickovic sub +455

honorable mention ngannou KO +180, but idk

man i just see general tendencies for a ton of these fights. hard to be confident in any specific outcomes. on the ENTIRE card.

what's a likely outcome on any of the 13 fights? hit me w/one, someone? like, any of the 13 fights... what's a likely outcome for a fighter?

Longtime lurker...first post ever.

Anyways, to answer your question: Blades tackling Ngannou and g&p'ing him? I can see that as 'likely'.

 

[Dirtey]

Hit Blaydes submission @ 13.00/+1400 on Unibet, even tho I agree with most of you that Blaydes by KO (most likely GnP) is more likely I can easily see him getting a submission after softening Ngannou up if he gets him down.

It pays basicly twice as much as it does on American bookies from what I can tell on BFO.

 

[Sham5916910]

In play listed on every fight on Unibet.

 

[Xuh]

I put 1u on doubles of Moroz/Blachowicz/Taisumov and another 0.5 on Taisumov+Blachowicz+Rothwell/JDS fight ITD @ just over evens

I think I will bet on Blaydes as well - I think they both are slow and sloppy as fuck from the vids but then again, it's HW. Ngannou is SO SLOW though. I think Blaydes will at least look good in rd 1 then Ngannou will be the underdog live so if I want to switch sides at that point....

I think I will also put .5 on: Taisumov by finish (it's above evens) and Moroz/Stanciu to end via sub (3.05 on Unibet - much better than the shitty fight ITD lines or u2.5's which are under evens, dafuq)

maybe Blaydes/Ngannou + Gonzaga/Lewis ITD as well (pretty sure neither of them go the distance but either fighter could get it) odds aren't super tempting though

otherwise - live betting only (it's nice when the UFC puts on a card at a time when civilized humans are at their peak )

Re. Cristina Stanciu
She got a purple belt in BJJ at the beginning of March. So should have an OK ground base (on paper anyway) - maybe even better than Moroz? (not sure how good Moroz really is at grappling)
In the videos of her she mostly seems to fight standing up though.
here she fights a very sloppy wild brawl vs a 1-3 standup fighter with no ground game
here she fights with more poise drops opponent with headkick, locks up an armbar decently fast.
Initially I thought Moroz would win easily being basically a better version of Stanciu (aggressive eastern euro punchy girl who does some subs) but I kinda have some doubts now.
I think there is a fairly good chance the fight ends in sub (if someone gets rocked with punches it'll probably end in sub rather than (t)ko). They both seem v aggressive
dec wise I think Moroz has better standup technique so more likely to win if it goes to dec.

 

[EzFlyer]

Longtime lurker...first post ever.

Anyways, to answer your question: Blades tackling Ngannou and g&p'ing him? I can see that as 'likely'.

no doubt that could happen, but what play? blaydes by dec? or tko?

@Xuh
i'll be against you on those taisumov plays

 

[Joseph Budden]

If this were any other card I definitely wouldn't feel this way, but at + odds I feel like Blaydes ml is one of the better bets here

 

[Soccer Steve]

no doubt that could happen, but what play? blaydes by dec? or tko?

@Xuh
i'll be against you on those taisumov plays

I have this image in my head of Ngannou throwing a big, arcing fist, Blaydes ducking it and tackling him, and then going warthog until he lands 4-5 consecutive head shots and the fight's done. I just have no idea when (i.e. if) this will happen. So ML for me.

 

[Sadistics]

# of fights to end ITD odds should be interesting, I wonder if we'll see a 100% finish rate

 

[Joseph Budden]

Taisumov by KO +210? Thats actually a pretty good line considering his power, the fact his is likely to be on the feet, and the good chance Taisumov is just another level at the momemt

 

[mkess101]

thx for the heads up

my first instinct here is velickovic sub +455

honorable mention ngannou KO +180, but idk

man i just see general tendencies for a ton of these fights. hard to be confident in any specific outcomes. on the ENTIRE card.

what's a likely outcome on any of the 13 fights? hit me w/one, someone? like, any of the 13 fights... what's a likely outcome for a fighter?

Sure, Entwhistle via leglock.

And...his sub line is -105 LOL so...yeah. 5d agrees with me.

 

[mkess101]

JDS getting bet now. Ben the dog again...hmm. Prob shouldn't add, already have him at +100 ML plus itd. He's only +110 now. If he hits +125 might have to add a little.

 

[weedreference]

Big money coming in on Cummings... I can see why. Dalby performed terribly against southpaw Darren Till last time out, and Cummings striking has been improving every fight (and the guy is just overall good, very underrated). Dalby is well-rounded but I just don't see where he has an edge, his main path to victory will be keeping it close on the feet and timing his takedowns when Cummings is focused on striking. Not an easy one.

 

[weedreference]

I'm liking the Croatian against Stasiak. Insane takedown defense and more dangerous striking. Stasiak is labeled a striker, but on tape he doesn't look great in that area (especially boxing).

 

[Bless]

Ben to win in round 3 or 4 at 9.00 (+800) on Unibet, hitting that small.

 

[Card]

 

[EzFlyer]

Taisumov by KO +210? Thats actually a pretty good line considering his power, the fact his is likely to be on the feet, and the good chance Taisumov is just another level at the momemt

you watch hadzovic yet? i'm super impressed

 

[Joseph Budden]

you watch hadzovic yet? i'm super impressed

Yeah watched him awhile ago, think we talked about it a bit few days ago lol i'm impressed too just think Mairbek is too much too soon and potentially a bad stylistic matchup from what i've seen. I hold Mairbek in very high regard and Damir's toughest opponent was Musardo whom he kind of struggled with in the first round. I feel comfortable parlaying Mairbek in a 2 teamer at the price of -280 I got him at, seems fair to me.