Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

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barrygood1 said:
Are you effin kidding me??? JDS a dog to Ben Rothwell... Sorry but the oddsmakers are drunk off mead or they're not even trying to set lines correctly for MMA. This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA. There is so much value with JDS at his current line +101 it's going to be like taking candy from a baby, quite literally! I'm hammering this play for more than my usual 1% because when the bookies make mistakes you have to capitalize on them as these opportunities are few and far between.

I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175. The only reason I can fathom JDS is a dog is due to the fact he lost to Overeem while Big Ben won against Allistair. So now the oddsmakers are setting lines based on MMA math and not due to the main factors being the fighters themselves. If I wanted to YOLO and not give a tooting damn I'd just go all-in or risk half my bankroll on JDS. I won't now that I'm wiser with my bankroll. This is one of the exceedingly rare times you will have to take advantage of the bookies so of course I'll be unloading on this play for around 5% of my roll.

I know Rothwell has been collecting a bunch of wins which is nice and all but this is a horrible stylistic match for him. He's going to get KO'd by JDS late first or early second as I see a desperate JDS going guns blazing.

- Barry
Click to expand...


Confidence increase in Rothwell.

Thanks Barry
 
barrygood1 said:
Are you effin kidding me??? JDS a dog to Ben Rothwell... Sorry but the oddsmakers are drunk off mead or they're not even trying to set lines correctly for MMA. This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA. There is so much value with JDS at his current line +101 it's going to be like taking candy from a baby, quite literally! I'm hammering this play for more than my usual 1% because when the bookies make mistakes you have to capitalize on them as these opportunities are few and far between.

I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175. The only reason I can fathom JDS is a dog is due to the fact he lost to Overeem while Big Ben won against Allistair. So now the oddsmakers are setting lines based on MMA math and not due to the main factors being the fighters themselves. If I wanted to YOLO and not give a tooting damn I'd just go all-in or risk half my bankroll on JDS. I won't now that I'm wiser with my bankroll. This is one of the exceedingly rare times you will have to take advantage of the bookies so of course I'll be unloading on this play for around 5% of my roll.

I know Rothwell has been collecting a bunch of wins which is nice and all but this is a horrible stylistic match for him. He's going to get KO'd by JDS late first or early second as I see a desperate JDS going guns blazing.

- Barry
Click to expand...
lost it at "if i wanted to YOLO and not give a tooting damn"
 
barrygood1 said:
Are you effin kidding me??? JDS a dog to Ben Rothwell... Sorry but the oddsmakers are drunk off mead or they're not even trying to set lines correctly for MMA. This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA. There is so much value with JDS at his current line +101 it's going to be like taking candy from a baby, quite literally! I'm hammering this play for more than my usual 1% because when the bookies make mistakes you have to capitalize on them as these opportunities are few and far between.

I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175. The only reason I can fathom JDS is a dog is due to the fact he lost to Overeem while Big Ben won against Allistair. So now the oddsmakers are setting lines based on MMA math and not due to the main factors being the fighters themselves. If I wanted to YOLO and not give a tooting damn I'd just go all-in or risk half my bankroll on JDS. I won't now that I'm wiser with my bankroll. This is one of the exceedingly rare times you will have to take advantage of the bookies so of course I'll be unloading on this play for around 5% of my roll.

I know Rothwell has been collecting a bunch of wins which is nice and all but this is a horrible stylistic match for him. He's going to get KO'd by JDS late first or early second as I see a desperate JDS going guns blazing.

- Barry
Click to expand...


"I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175"

With the line at +101 -- "This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA."

_______________________________________________


Translation: A 50-75 point favorable difference in how I cap it is the "single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA."

lmfao...
 
Jae Gibbz said:
"I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175"

With the line at +101 -- "This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA."

_______________________________________________


Translation: A 50-75 point favorable difference in how I cap it is the "single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA."

lmfao...
Click to expand...


HAHAHAHA I totally glossed over that in order to get to the "good stuff". Thanks for pointing out that gem, made my morning!
 
barrygood1 said:
Are you effin kidding me??? JDS a dog to Ben Rothwell... Sorry but the oddsmakers are drunk off mead or they're not even trying to set lines correctly for MMA. This is in my opinion the single most egregious line I think I've come across since I started betting MMA. There is so much value with JDS at his current line +101 it's going to be like taking candy from a baby, quite literally! I'm hammering this play for more than my usual 1% because when the bookies make mistakes you have to capitalize on them as these opportunities are few and far between.

I cap this fight at JDS around -150 to -175. The only reason I can fathom JDS is a dog is due to the fact he lost to Overeem while Big Ben won against Allistair. So now the oddsmakers are setting lines based on MMA math and not due to the main factors being the fighters themselves. If I wanted to YOLO and not give a tooting damn I'd just go all-in or risk half my bankroll on JDS. I won't now that I'm wiser with my bankroll. This is one of the exceedingly rare times you will have to take advantage of the bookies so of course I'll be unloading on this play for around 5% of my roll.

I know Rothwell has been collecting a bunch of wins which is nice and all but this is a horrible stylistic match for him. He's going to get KO'd by JDS late first or early second as I see a desperate JDS going guns blazing.

- Barry
Click to expand...

Thanks for the advice.
Do you have a Facebook by chance?
I'd like to match a face to your posts so I can get an idea of who I'm dealing with here.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Thanks for the advice.
Do you have a Facebook by chance?
I'd like to match a face to your posts so I can get an idea of who I'm dealing with here.
Click to expand...
could this be the legend? :D

http://www.sugardaddyforme.com/sugar-daddies/nm/albuquerque/barrygood1

Mr. SugarDaddy
NVG2286318_1.JPG
 
Against everybody here and with Barry (damn!!)

If JDS goes back to his roots he is going to make Big Ben like an amateur. He is just the much better striker.
He just looked bad since going to ATT. Any word on where he is doing his camp now?

Big Ben is a though MOFO and a very tricky fighter... but being a punching bag until you land something or catch a sub will not always work. He looked better against Barnett, but Barnett is not a world beater at this stage of his career.

I think that as a pick em fight I have to go with JDS, or SDS. I will play him small because Im not confident but I give a small edge to him.
 
fuck i'm also with barry.

think ben has been good at capitalising on opponents mistakes recently but his standup still looks mediocre to me. that style of wading forward and blocking punches with your face seems like a really bad matchup against JDS.

it's possible that jds has come off drugs and the wear and tear have degraded him beyond belief. but i'll still take my chances.

as a side note, jds weighs about 230-something, whereas i think ben cuts to heavyweight. perhaps that will have an impact if it goes to the ground? who knows, it's a heavyweight shit fest.
 
Call me crazy but i like JDS decision here - Rothwell is tough as they come.
 
For those on JDS, did you watch his last two fights? He looks like a shell of his former self. Rewatch the Stipe fight, I don't even think JDS won that fight. And if Stipe had realized how sluggish JDS was I think he could have turned up the heat and finished him. I realize Stipe is a better striker than Ben (and so is Overeem) but JDS just doesn't look like the same guy.

And we shouldn't be surprised. The two beatings he took from Cain were BRUTAL. Not one punch KO's, but prolonged beatings that have long term affects. At the risk of sounding like a broken record in these threads, at HW durability is just SO important. Ben is a vet but just hasn't taken the damage that JDS has. He's shown no signs of being "fight old" like JDS has.

Prime JDS vs prime Ben is a mismatch but that's so far from what we're getting here imo. Throw in that Ben seems to have some crazy raw strength and sneaky chokes and he just has so many more ways to win this fight imo. Could JDS outbox him and win? Yeah, could happen. But at close to evens? I'll take the more durable guy with more paths to victory thanks.
 
mkess101 said:
For those on JDS, did you watch his last two fights? He looks like a shell of his former self. Rewatch the Stipe fight, I don't even think JDS won that fight. And if Stipe had realized how sluggish JDS was I think he could have turned up the heat and finished him. I realize Stipe is a better striker than Ben (and so is Overeem) but JDS just doesn't look like the same guy.

And we shouldn't be surprised. The two beatings he took from Cain were BRUTAL. Not one punch KO's, but prolonged beatings that have long term affects. At the risk of sounding like a broken record in these threads, at HW durability is just SO important. Ben is a vet but just hasn't taken the damage that JDS has. He's shown no signs of being "fight old" like JDS has.

Prime JDS vs prime Ben is a mismatch but that's so far from what we're getting here imo. Throw in that Ben seems to have some crazy raw strength and sneaky chokes and he just has so many more ways to win this fight imo. Could JDS outbox him and win? Yeah, could happen. But at close to evens? I'll take the more durable guy with more paths to victory thanks.
Click to expand...

I rewatched JDS Miocic recently and scored it 4-1 JDS albeit the fight was closer than 4-1 makes it sound. Do agree with what you say tho. I'm eyeing Rothwell SU hedged with JDS decision.
 
jds vs stripe was a close fight, jds did appear to look better but you could see he was not himself he almost had to jab stipe via below neck body shots and stick and move for most of the fight. And against Reem, jds was clearly no where prime or his usual self.

I am unsure if JDS can perform or move like his usual self, cain could have taken his soul and stipe could have taken his heart at this point in jds career. Also all the usual usada stuff could have changed jds performance.

Really hard to gauge jds tbh it could have been ring rust even but that stipe and reem performance is hard to ignore.

Another way to look at it is Rothwell destroyed Reem and Reem just destroyed jds....

Anyhow 3 weeks to debate it lol
 
I like black beast here & Jan over gabe and recently cut Igor

Black beast has shown decent power and speed, even in later on rounds and gabe not sure if he can keep bb down for 3 rounds. BB also been fighting bit more patient and with better fight iq recently.

Igor recently cut, and I think he matches up badly against Jans style here with an all out striking match.
Jan should have the better kicking game, boxing and speed, he also does better with slower plodding heavier guys just like igor.

Otherwise no idea on most of them, but the main card has 4 hw fights and a light hw fight so perhaps good idea to look at the under 1.5s or itd props/lines.
 
Ukram said:
I like black beast here & Jan over gabe and recently cut Igor

Black beast has shown decent power and speed, even in later on rounds and gabe not sure if he can keep bb down for 3 rounds. BB also been fighting bit more patient and with better fight iq recently.

Igor recently cut, and I think he matches up badly against Jans style here with an all out striking match.
Jan should have the better kicking game, boxing and speed, he also does better with slower plodding heavier guys just like igor.

Otherwise no idea on most of them, but the main card has 4 hw fights and a light hw fight so perhaps good idea to look at the under 1.5s or itd props/lines.
Click to expand...

With you on Jan was eyeing Jan + Taisumov but at this stage no nothing about Taisumov's opponent so at mo eyeing lb only for this card.

I like Gabe here. Yes hes been knocked out a lot but BB does his damage with gnp not standing. If Gabe gets him down i think its a rap. Not confident but will take Gabe sub if the line is decent enough.

Can JDS stop Rothwell? Im really not seeing it especially based on his tentative Reem performance. Really like Rothwell SU hedged with JDS dec. We cannot ignore JDS 's decline like a few here have said. Rothwell is in the best form of his career. Think i will save anything big for lb tho.
 
until i see jds do well again i'm going to assume he's semi-done. he's so tentative. i really think he's on the downswing.
 
I'll be all over black beast at -130 or better easily. Dude is improving while Gonzaga has stagnated.
 
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