Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

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MONEYLINE said:
cant believe this event is forever away
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Me either but it's funny how spoiled I've gotten now with the TV deal. I'm old so been watching UFC since the late 90's and betting on it most of that time (probably 2005 or 2006 I started?). Used to be just the ppv's and it was every 4-6 weeks or so. Now if there's more than 2 weeks without a card it feels like forever.
 
I see why Big Ben is the favorite here, he gained momentum with an impressive winning streak and he is at his peek of his carrier, he is durable and hard to put away at this point and he has the confidence in him . But that sad I have to go with JDS here, the guy needs this win more than ever and hi is working hard to get it, the boxing of JSD will be the key factor here, because this does not go to the ground,and Ben is just not fast enough to get the KO and he is not winning on decision. Junior will be setting up good punch combos with body and low kicks and eventually he will land an overhand.
 
Not having done any research yet and I've been off with most of my bets the last few weeks but just gonna put it out there: Has Rothwell produced less offence in any of his fights or even in any round then JDS did vs Overeem in his last fight? Rothwell might not be the most technical fighter but he hits like a truck, can take a punch and seems like he'd be the type of guy who just walks forward no matter what. Unless JDS somehow got younger by getting KTFO'd I'm not even sure he takes a decision.
 
I got JDS at 1.90, underdog odds which I think is crazy, thinking that the only guys to defeat him are Cain-with-functioning-knees and Overeem. He has always been the best against big, slow plodding stand up fighters like Carwin, Hunt, Nelson etc. To me Rothwell still fits that type of fighter and JDS should be able to overcome his problems with a defensive counterstriker like Overeem to score a late TKO or a decision.
 
For those thinking this is anything more than a shell of what JDS used to be, go rewatch JDS/Cain II and III. Those beatings probably took YEARS off JDS' life. Arguably 2 of the worst prolonged beatings I've ever seen in the sport and they happened to the same guy in a relatively short time span.

Is Rothwell somewhat of a slow, plodding brawler? Yep. But guess who else looks slow and plodding these days? And at least with Ben you get his durability and apparently some nice chokes with a damn tight squeeze if he's tapping someone like Barnett.

Can JDS turn back the clock and win? Sure, it's possible. But at evens he's really the guy you're gonna back here? REALLY?
 
I agree with Mkess - maybe not as confident but i agree. He looked terrible against Reem. I will lb this one but if after r1 JDS has put in a similar round to his Reem effort I am smashing Rothwell's line.
 
I was shocked at the JDS that showed up against Reem. His body looked deflated, his head shrank, his movement was terrible and his explosiveness was gone.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I agree with Mkess - maybe not as confident but i agree. He looked terrible against Reem. I will lb this one but if after r1 JDS has put in a similar round to his Reem effort I am smashing Rothwell's line.
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Anyone have footage of Cannonier other than the Jordan and Haughton fights?
 
I don't care what the lines are, or what they become, I'm CRUSHING the Ngannou vs Blaydes fight. Ngannou is going to win, and it's not going to be close.

Blaydes is a pressure fighter with minimal striking. He plods forward, swings a few looping punches, just enough to jump into someone's range. and go for a double. He looks like a slow heavyweight wrestler. If/when he gets his opponent down - admittedly he appears to be strong - he has an iffy GNP, and VERY questionable strike-zone considering how often he goes to the back of the head.

Ngannou, meanwhile, is heavily-muscled in the upper body, with good TDD, making up for some technique issues with pure strength. He's busy in the clinch with lots of effective knees to the thigh and stomach, with good cage pressure and balance, while actively searching for a neck to crank if the opponent goes low sloppily. And that's if it even gets to the clinch, because Ngannou is way more athletic and light on his feet than Blaydes. On the outside he is a FAR superior striker than Blaydes. Ngannou has a heavy leg kick and showed a powerful overhand right that caved in Tahihi's face.

This likely ends one of two ways:
1) Blaydes dives in head first like all his fights looking for the double. Ngannou is strong and quick enough to grab the neck and get a Rothwell-esque sub.
2) Blaydes keeps trying to come in for the TD, and takes a ton of damage in doing so, whether during the approach or in the clinch. TKO for Ngannou.
 
^ That's baloney. They have a combined 1 UFC fights and only 2 years experience a piece. How could you come to those detailed conclusions.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
^ That's baloney. They have a combined 1 UFC fights and only 2 years experience a piece. How could you come to those detailed conclusions.
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Easy. I analyzed all the available fights and highlights they have online. How else do you cap a fight? Unless either guy drastically changed how they fight or their athletic makeup, that's what's probably going to happen. Just because some of their fights are amateur doesn't mean they weren't fights.

It's not like Blaydes is suddenly going to become hyper-explosive and able to move much faster than he has in past fights. And he hasn't been fighting or training long enough to improve his striking dramatically.

As for Ngannou, unless he takes the month before the fight off, is still going to come in ripped, strong, athletic, with some heavy striking, and light on his feet.
 
jinkoe said:
Easy. I analyzed all the available fights and highlights they have online. How else do you cap a fight? Unless either guy drastically changed how they fight or their athletic makeup, that's what's probably going to happen. Just because some of their fights are amateur doesn't mean they weren't fights.

It's not like Blaydes is suddenly going to become hyper-explosive and able to move much faster than he has in past fights. And he hasn't been fighting or training long enough to improve his striking dramatically.

As for Ngannou, unless he takes the month before the fight off, is still going to come in ripped, strong, athletic, with some heavy striking, and light on his feet.
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Some of what you're saying I don't understand though, as someone who has seen some of these guys' fights. For example, you said Ngannou has good tdd but i'm not sure what you're basing that off of. I know the Brazilian he just fought had a wrestling background, but he was severely under sized and took Ngannou down pretty easily. Blaydes won't be undersized in the least and he has a much stronger wrestling background.

To be fair I agree with your assessment of his striking though, its very raw at this stage of his career, understandably.
 
Yeah Ngannous TDD was not impressive in his last fight and he was pretty clueless on the ground. Brah can bang doe!
 
Card said:
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Not one touch butt session

10 units on rothwell.

Seriously jds looked horrible physically last fight.

Like a puppy with parvo.

Rothwell while ugly and ackward in his stand up is extremely effective

I also believe he will hold a big advantage in the submission department
 
I would take Ngannou's fight experience with a grain of salt. He's had all but 3 of his fights in France where the rules are different...

I would take a guy's ability to run the pipe over an inexperienced guillotine threat any day..

Ngannou stands pretty square too so im assuming he's a bit more offense oriented. He's got good pop on his punches and kicks and he throws with bad intentions no doubt but when it comes to very green prospects I'd usually lean towards the guy with the better grappling (but I'm making assumptions here).

Of course, it only takes that 1 punch at HW. I expect the lines to open up at evens. Along the lines of -120/+100
 
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