Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

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jinkoe said:
I don't care what the lines are, or what they become, I'm CRUSHING the Ngannou vs Blaydes fight. Ngannou is going to win, and it's not going to be close.

Blaydes is a pressure fighter with minimal striking. He plods forward, swings a few looping punches, just enough to jump into someone's range. and go for a double. He looks like a slow heavyweight wrestler. If/when he gets his opponent down - admittedly he appears to be strong - he has an iffy GNP, and VERY questionable strike-zone considering how often he goes to the back of the head.

Ngannou, meanwhile, is heavily-muscled in the upper body, with good TDD, making up for some technique issues with pure strength. He's busy in the clinch with lots of effective knees to the thigh and stomach, with good cage pressure and balance, while actively searching for a neck to crank if the opponent goes low sloppily. And that's if it even gets to the clinch, because Ngannou is way more athletic and light on his feet than Blaydes. On the outside he is a FAR superior striker than Blaydes. Ngannou has a heavy leg kick and showed a powerful overhand right that caved in Tahihi's face.

This likely ends one of two ways:
1) Blaydes dives in head first like all his fights looking for the double. Ngannou is strong and quick enough to grab the neck and get a Rothwell-esque sub.
2) Blaydes keeps trying to come in for the TD, and takes a ton of damage in doing so, whether during the approach or in the clinch. TKO for Ngannou.
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Agree mostly. Not as high on ngggngngngu but def way down on blaydes

He looks so slow and ackward
 
Ngannou lost the first round of his last fight via that Henrique being able to clinch Ngannou against the cage and run down the clock if I remember rightly. I assume Ngannou will be a decent sized favourite, and I expect Blaydes will try to do the same, grind him against the cage and try to get a takedown from there. If livebetting is an option it could be worth leaving the Ngannou bet until midway through the first to see if Blaydes goes down that route. If he does you might be able to get Francis at a better price if he's losing the first round due to Blaydes grinding on him but not finding too much success and starting to slow down.
 
888/Unibet have Lewis -150, Gonzaga +110 and Dalby -187, Cummings +140.
 
bet365 u1.5 line for ben/jds @ 2.20

tentative jds vs I don't care if my arm is broken rothwell sounds like it would hit
 
Ukram said:
bet365 u1.5 line for ben/jds @ 2.20

tentative jds vs I don't care if my arm is broken rothwell sounds like it would hit
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I think Rothwell ITD should pay better and is more safe (5 rounder).
 
Agent Mulder said:
I think Rothwell ITD should pay better and is more safe (5 rounder).
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Totally agree in fact I like the over 1.5. Neither guy generally comes out guns blazing and expect JDS to be extra cautious given his last fight. I lean toward rd 1 being a feeling out process. In a 5 rounder there's not nearly the urgency to do something significant right out of the gate.
 
mkess101 said:
Totally agree in fact I like the over 1.5. Neither guy generally comes out guns blazing and expect JDS to be extra cautious given his last fight. I lean toward rd 1 being a feeling out process. In a 5 rounder there's not nearly the urgency to do something significant right out of the gate.
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I like the O1.5 in theory for the reasons you state but not loving the price atm.

I wanted to play JDS dec before the odds were released but i dont think +500 is good enough for a 5 rounder.
 
i like that line a lot on zak cummings. think he has a great chance.
 
piglord said:
i like that line a lot on zak cummings. think he has a great chance.
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Thats what im thinking. Will watch tape on Dalby Cummings and Martins Whiteford over next few days. Im lb this card mainly but if i have a strong lean either way on thise two fights i will lay some pre fight cash down. Like i said really hoping after watching tape i like Cummings.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Thats what im thinking. Will watch tape on Dalby Cummings and Martins Whiteford over next few days. Im lb this card mainly but if i have a strong lean either way on thise two fights i will lay some pre fight cash down. Like i said really hoping after watching tape i like Cummings.
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Really tricky fight to predict with zak/dalby, zaks not as technical, throws everything into this punches and strikes and looks to clinch and take down via his wrestling background. His wrestling is decent but seen he lacks positioning at times and general fight iq, he often relies much on brute strength during clinches and grappling exchanges. Dalby has that karate background, nice leg kicks from the outside no doubt zak will look to grab those leg kicks and look for trips and take downs non stop, but dalby pulls his leg strikes back in (well most of the time), dalby has shown a nice power double take down and is also no slouch in the clinching and grappling exchanges.

Dalby is undefeated (1 draw) and showed excellent r3 cardio in his last outing against till, where as zak does slow down much but puts a bit more energy into all he does.

Whole fight screams live betting if not the whole event lol

If I had to wager though I do feel dalby picks him apart on the outside to outpoint him though via split decision.
 
Ukram said:
Really tricky fight to predict with zak/dalby, zaks not as technical, throws everything into this punches and strikes and looks to clinch and take down via his wrestling background. His wrestling is decent but seen he lacks positioning at times and general fight iq, he often relies much on brute strength during clinches and grappling exchanges. Dalby has that karate background, nice leg kicks from the outside no doubt zak will look to grab those leg kicks and look for trips and take downs non stop, but dalby pulls his leg strikes back in (well most of the time), dalby has shown a nice power double take down and is also no slouch in the clinching and grappling exchanges.

Dalby is undefeated (1 draw) and showed excellent r3 cardio in his last outing against till, where as zak does slow down much but puts a bit more energy into all he does.

Whole fight screams live betting if not the whole event lol

If I had to wager though I do feel dalby picks him apart on the outside to outpoint him though via split decision.
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Nice. Yeah im thinking live bet as unibet will have whole card and lots of unknowns fighting so im sure we will be able to snag some great value lines.
 
It's a fight pass card. Doesn't that mean no live betting?

Anywho, I don't know if Dalby would want to initiate grappling exchanges with Cummings. It's too inviting of Zak's strengths should he get sprawled on or get a neck snatched he certainly doesn't want to be on the bottom. And I noticed there are a couple techniques he likes to throw against orthodox fighters like the step in lead left head kick that covers a lot of distance really fast that he didn't use against Till because he was a southpaw which Zak is as well.

Till apparently popped his shoulder in that 3rd round and ended up being a 10-8 but Till was on his way to a dominating win.

I'm gonna play Zak's ML and a pseudo hedge on the o2.5 to cover Dalby winning by decision.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Its FS1 card
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Hmm what an ugly card I bet hardly anyone's going to even know it's on or get up or at 9amPT to watch it on FS1 other than people like us.

But that's coo with me I get blessed with another Live Bet opportunity I thought it was a FP card.

I guess I'll wake up at 730am California time to catch the first prelims. Get baked, have a protein shake and watch some programming. I feel like a kid on Saturday morning cartoons.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Hmm what an ugly card I bet hardly anyone's going to even know it's on or get up or at 9amPT to watch it on FS1 other than people like us.

But that's coo with me I get blessed with another Live Bet opportunity I thought it was a FP card.

I guess I'll wake up at 730am California time to catch the first prelims. Get baked, have a protein shake and watch some programming. I feel like a kid on Saturday morning cartoons.
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I think this is a Sunday card?
 
Further to what Reb said Zak ML seems safe with Dalby dec hedge.

JDS dec +600 @ Ladbrokes. Better than the +500 i have seen everywhere else.
 
i'm pretty sure darren till injured his shoulder which is why dalby's r3 looked so impresive. he had nothing for the first two rounds. not that till and cummings are at all similar stylistically but i think that might be a factor the oddsmakers have neglected.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Further to what Reb said Zak ML seems safe with Dalby dec hedge.

JDS dec +600 @ Ladbrokes. Better than the +500 i have seen everywhere else.
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JDS dec +620 on 5d. Still don't like it. I cap the fight even making it the distance at probably about +500.

I think it will be a bit of a slow start but can't see these guys going 5 rds. I like the over 1.5 but see it ending in rd 3 or 4 as being pretty likely.
 
Agreed. I really dont see this hitting the cards. I like Ben r1-r4
 
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