Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 28, 2016.
Hmmm. Knowing how bookies treat WSOF watch Branch be like -500. OK maybe not that much but expecting a juiced line.
Might lay my bankroll on Fitch by decision. Also interested in the Vinny/Heun lines. This is a good card for WSOF standards.
yea seems like tailor-made for fitch decision, now that you mention it. zeferino could be dangerous, tho...
branch definitely not gonna be cheap
Fitch's sub defense has arguably always been his best asset, its always been difficult to even put him in a position to attempt one, and that doesn't go away with age. Zef's best weapons are his leglocks from what i've seen, and hopefully Palhares taught Fitch a lesson about the dangers they present, so i'm not really worried about Zeferino at all to be honest.
I'm just hoping the line for this isn't juiced. If its -150 or better I will pound it.
I'll take Starks and Zeferino if they are huge dogs. I could easily see the Starks fight being a striking match, one he will most likely lose, but it should be fairly close. Branch has better muay thai and Starks boxing.
Zeferino just because I see their striking being close and wrestle-grinders often have trouble with BJJ specialists who have a lot of options to get out of things.
Lines up. Not sure what to bet tho
Branch -245 is not bad at all for parlay fodder. Think he will crush Starks. Parlayed that and o2.5 for the Fitch fight.
They have that fight listed as 3 rounds, but isn't that a 5 round title fight? Either way, looks like Fitch decision will be in the low -1xx which i'm excited about. If it really is a 5 rounder and they realize that, we'll even get + odds if i'm calculating right
I like Branch and Heun at their current prices
WSOF 30 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Downtown Las Vegas Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada - NBCSN
Sat 4/2 3001 Clifford Starks +200 o3½ -150
11:00PM 3002 David Branch -280 u3½ +110
WSOF 30 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Downtown Las Vegas Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada - NBCSN
Sat 4/2 3101 Joao Zeferino +210 o2½ -210
11:00PM 3102 Jon Fitch -290 u2½ +160
WSOF 30 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Downtown Las Vegas Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada - NBCSN
Sat 4/2 3201 Jake Heun +275 o1½ +130
11:00PM 3202 Vinny Magalhaes -395 u1½ -170
WSOF 30 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Downtown Las Vegas Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada - NBCSN
Sat 4/2 3301 Danny Davis Jr +235 o1½ -175
11:00PM 3302 Abu Azaitar -315 u1½ +135
i missed openers... hrmmmm
zeferino any value? would've liked branch cheaper...
i have no clue who abu azaitar is.
heun have any value? (prolly not)
it says two titlefights on wsof site... hrmmm
think i might like that U3.5 on branch-starks. branch looking pretty darn dangerous lately... tho would like it better if it was u4.5 instead of u3.5! (so to speak) -- gonna wait on props on that angle.
I took Fitch + Starks and Heun.
Heun = a Vinny fade?
A lot of Vinny's wins have been come from behind or in competitive fights. Heun is flaky, but I think he's got enough power to land something and athletic enough to avoid the ground if he fights smart. Keep in mind, he's not the smartest fighter though. I bit at +275 for a flyer, but I wouldn't play him at much lower than that.
Under 3,5 Branch/Starks 1u
I shoulda hit Heun back when he was +275 now I don't want to play him as just 2 to 1.
Heun was that biggest dog on the card at the openers...
I keep getting killed on these non UFC cards so kinda hesitant to make plays just for action.
I hit some openers last night. David Branch told Frank Trigg in his MMA Oddsbreaker interview that he knocked out Yushin Okami with one bicep torn and rolled up into his arm and submitted Jesse Taylor with a shoulder that hurt so badly that he couldn't raise a gallon of water past his hip level but that he is in such good shape after surgery and injury free now that he feels young and indestructible again. I'm taking him at his word- plus he just has more ways to win between submission, KO or decision- so that's why I bet his ML over a surging Clifford Starks and the under 3½ in the main event. The risk in the welterweight title fight is Zeferino heel hooking Fitch early, but if not it should go over 2½ to a Fitch late stoppage or decision. Have to fade Vinny's chin small as skilled and dangerous as he is with Heun at +250 or above. And finally Azaitar has a lot of round 1 stoppages so I bet the under 1½ there at decent + money. Hopefully we get props too.
WSOF 30 Risk $553.97
David Branch (-245) vs Clifford Starks $245.00 for $100.00
David Branch/Clifford Starks Under 3½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Jake Heun (+250) vs Vinny Magalhaes $40.00 for $100.00
Abu Azaitar/Danny Davis Jr. Under 1½ (+145) $68.97 for $100.00
Jon Fitch/Joao Zeferino Over 2½ (-210) + David Branch (-245) vs Clifford Starks $100.00 for $107.87
Now that the lines are out I'm not really liking anything. Was hoping for Starks and Zeferino at +300, but at least WSOF lines have had crazy movement recently so it could still happen. I'll play Vinny if he keeps dropping as well.
i haven't even touched a single fight here. waiting for props rather than u3.5 branch-starks, i think.
would definitely like higher on heun.
idk on fitch-zef.
man I wanted to fade vinnie but ewery single loss on heuns record (4) are subs, even his tuf fights (2) are sub losses
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