ONE Championship, betting thread, One FC

Captain Chesapeake said:
I totally get it. I’m sure I wouldn’t be throwing units around if it was my main source of income. It is fun betting this way and I do this mostly because I enjoy it

I’m just thinking to myself I’m winning 15 units off this play while the guy who gave it to me is winning 3-4. Feel kind of dirty lol

And my max bet is loose. Even in Kelly criterion it says basically to hammer value when you see it and 5 units is just a reference point for a max bet and there are scenarios where you should go bigger

I have a bunch of money on dern props. Much more than 5 units. Ml bets however I stick more to the 5 unit rule.

when there’s something I really like/see value I’m hitting it.
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I love how you guys are thinking about unit size and how honest people are being with their fears related to when their unit gets too big. We all struggle with it but most people won't admit it.

I do have a piece of advice related to unit size though. My bonafides are that I've been a profitable bettor since 2008 and I quit my job in 2017 and have made my living since then. Edge comes and goes. So maybe you have a maximum and you take money out once you reach it, but you want to bet as much as you can while you have an edge because it will go away.

Books adjust if they're losing too much and you'll find edge on one type of bet will go away and you'll have to move your action to another type of bet. So maybe props are great right now but they won't always be. During covid Unders were printing money for me since they were all priced wrong. Now, I'm lucky if I find a single under bet on each card. Early season hockey I struggle to find bets but as the season goes on and people get ideas in their head I start to make a ton of money. That's why it's so important to adjust your unit based on winnings/losses so that when you're right you're getting paid and when you're wrong your losses are minimal.

Of course you can only do that if you're betting your bankroll right. If you're betting "much more than 5 units" on props in a single fight then you're over-betting your bankroll. Which I don't have any issue with since I over-bet my bankroll whenever I have too big of an edge as well but it's important to realize that you can bust your bankroll if you're rolling the whole thing over every weekend.
 
You mean to tell me you wouldn’t max bet a multiple sherbruh tail on a low level Japanese mma promotion?

who are you?
 
The Disasters said:
I love how you guys are thinking about unit size and how honest people are being with their fears related to when their unit gets too big. We all struggle with it but most people won't admit it.

I do have a piece of advice related to unit size though. My bonafides are that I've been a profitable bettor since 2008 and I quit my job in 2017 and have made my living since then. Edge comes and goes. So maybe you have a maximum and you take money out once you reach it, but you want to bet as much as you can while you have an edge because it will go away.

Books adjust if they're losing too much and you'll find edge on one type of bet will go away and you'll have to move your action to another type of bet. So maybe props are great right now but they won't always be. During covid Unders were printing money for me since they were all priced wrong. Now, I'm lucky if I find a single under bet on each card. Early season hockey I struggle to find bets but as the season goes on and people get ideas in their head I start to make a ton of money. That's why it's so important to adjust your unit based on winnings/losses so that when you're right you're getting paid and when you're wrong your losses are minimal.

Of course you can only do that if you're betting your bankroll right. If you're betting "much more than 5 units" on props in a single fight then you're over-betting your bankroll. Which I don't have any issue with since I over-bet my bankroll whenever I have too big of an edge as well but it's important to realize that you can bust your bankroll if you're rolling the whole thing over every weekend.
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Well the thing about my bankroll is it never gets above 10-12k. So I give myself some freedom with bets I really like.

There’s no value in dern -230. Why would I bet her ml at -230 when I fell like 6.5-7 times she wins this fight are almost all sub? If it goes 5 she’s probably not winning or it’s a super close fight.

I’m getting her sub prop at evens and itd at -130. I can only get down enough to win $250 on those so I have to get creative

I have -3.5 at -170 bet to win $250 as well

would preferred to have roughly 1.25k on her itd but limits are limits

Not other bet on the card is even close to that big. I like my edge as you would say
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I totally get it. I’m sure I wouldn’t be throwing units around if it was my main source of income. It is fun betting this way and I do this mostly because I enjoy it

I’m just thinking to myself I’m winning 15 units off this play while the guy who gave it to me is winning 3-4. Feel kind of dirty lol

And my max bet is loose. Even in Kelly criterion it says basically to hammer value when you see it and 5 units is just a reference point for a max bet and there are scenarios where you should go bigger

I have a bunch of money on dern props. Much more than 5 units. Ml bets however I stick more to the 5 unit rule.

when there’s something I really like/see value I’m hitting it.
Click to expand...
Thats just a difference in caping. My biggest plays are ML, I have a love-hate with over/unders so I usually have half a unit on them. If I don't see the value I won't be putting 1u on it. To me, the most important aspects of betting are consistency, and minimizing loss. Don't want to be forcing bets. These days I have found that passing, and taking advantage of live bets has been much better than forcing and losing pre-bet.

Too add, when I feel theres decent amount of value I do put more than one unit. Trey was 1.5u and the last bet I felt the same way about was Simone over Shore. That was also 1.5k plus I added a tiny bit on decisions. I dont usually feel like that recently, I find a lot of these cards lack solid value, and the bookies have gotten better potentially. Last card i made 3,2k for first time in a bit. But I had good reads on Gillian, Pfyfer U1.5 was easy money but don't want to be laying 3k on U1.5 props. Sprinkle on Jackson, Sprinkle on Fili, Hernandez SUB/DEC, but only half a unit. Live bet Sandhagen and Zellhuber. Its just these rules I have set over the years I cant break.
 
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BigSteve said:
Thats just a difference in caping. My biggest plays are ML, I have a love-hate with over/unders so I usually have half a unit on them. If I don't see the value I won't be putting 1u on it. To me, the most important aspects of betting are consistency, and minimizing loss. Don't want to be forcing bets. These days I have found that passing, and taking advantage of live bets has been much better than forcing and losing pre-bet.

To add, when I feel theres decent amount of value I do put more than one unit. Trey was 1.5u and the last bet I felt the same way about was Simone over Shore. That was also 1.5k plus I added a tiny bit on decisions. I dont usually feel like that recently, I find a lot of these cards lack solid value, and the bookies have gotten better potentially. Last card i made 3,2k for first time in a bit. But I had good reads on Gillian, Pfyfer U1.5 was easy money but don't want to be laying 3k on U1.5 props. Sprinkle on Jackson, Sprinkle on Fili, Hernandez SUB/DEC, but only half a unit. Live bet Sandhagen and Zellhuber. It’s just these rules I have set over the years I cant break.
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Yea you’re probably right about me increasing my unit size. Can you imagine having 10k on dern props for Saturday? Lol. Wouldn’t make much sense

I also really don’t like over/unders and agree that books have gotten better but they still make massive mistakes and we still have a large amount of the betting public that can move lines the wrong way

minimizing loss feels like I’m not going to win much. Guess it’s just the difference in unit size and me having a full time job
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
Yea you’re probably right about me increasing my unit size. Can you imagine having 10k on dern props for Saturday? Lol. Wouldn’t make much sense

I also really don’t like over/unders and agree that books have gotten better but they still make massive mistakes and we still have a large amount of the betting public that can move lines the wrong way
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you 110% should at least be increasing it to 200. The way you bet you probably still won't notice a difference, but at least its progresses. You want to be making more money by betting the same way, not risking more units.
 
BigSteve said:
you 110% should at least be increasing it to 200. The way you bet you probably still won't notice a difference, but at least its progresses. You want to be making more money by betting the same way, not risking more units.
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Yea I need to figure something out. My bets have admittedly been crazy lately with the size variance. No way could I bet like this professionally. I would have to overhaul my style.

I should probably have a prop bet unit size of $100 and a ml unit bet size of $3-500.

it would make more sense and I would be more conservative on ml plays and I could still hit props and feel like I’m winning something

this is the first year I’ve actually taken steps to improve. I’ve been hesitant to up the unit size but yea things are starting to not add up having like 9 out of 10 20+ unit events isn’t normal.

it’s like I don’t want to change it because it’s working, but it could work better if I would just make the adjustments
 
I just watched the card and both Reug Reug and his opponent looked very good. Reug Reug is a nightmare matchup for any grappler. At +200 I'd bet him for sure against Aliakbari.
 
The Disasters said:
I love how you guys are thinking about unit size and how honest people are being with their fears related to when their unit gets too big. We all struggle with it but most people won't admit it.

I do have a piece of advice related to unit size though. My bonafides are that I've been a profitable bettor since 2008 and I quit my job in 2017 and have made my living since then. Edge comes and goes. So maybe you have a maximum and you take money out once you reach it, but you want to bet as much as you can while you have an edge because it will go away.

Books adjust if they're losing too much and you'll find edge on one type of bet will go away and you'll have to move your action to another type of bet. So maybe props are great right now but they won't always be. During covid Unders were printing money for me since they were all priced wrong. Now, I'm lucky if I find a single under bet on each card. Early season hockey I struggle to find bets but as the season goes on and people get ideas in their head I start to make a ton of money. That's why it's so important to adjust your unit based on winnings/losses so that when you're right you're getting paid and when you're wrong your losses are minimal.

Of course you can only do that if you're betting your bankroll right. If you're betting "much more than 5 units" on props in a single fight then you're over-betting your bankroll. Which I don't have any issue with since I over-bet my bankroll whenever I have too big of an edge as well but it's important to realize that you can bust your bankroll if you're rolling the whole thing over every weekend.
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In the case of trey williams and elijah wood, i felt justified betting a nice chunk of my bank roll(although i couldn't.) it was a 41 year vs a 31 year old who checked all the boxes. Younger, faster, stronger, better chin, also knew grappling to thwart a sub. he hit all the right marks, its' a unicorn bet , something that comes once a year maybe, where a guy starts at 240+ and ends up being a near -400. it was a big eff up. i think all the bookies who write the lines were shortly let go by the casinos, both online and off. tremendous fk ups. I can literally see a strategy where a guy sits out every event waiting for that one opportunity and max betting his whole bank roll( go big or go home) and end making more money than the guy who bets every event. The only problem is that i've stated a lot, is so much limited betting , and lack of options keeps a lot of ppl from becoming genuine rich betting mma. I go back and fourth and wonder if mma will ever get the same exposure as other sports. I mean mma outside ufc and bellator. Finding live casinos with every mma show, i don't know if it exist. A state that allows me to bet on cage warriors, one , lfa , etc. if limits didn't exist i think you'd have a lot of rich players here.
 
In honour of Martin Nguyen fighting tonight, I present to you one of the most disgusting body shots of all time. This shit was out of a videogame:

 
Jingnan Xiong (+128) over Angela Lee $25.00 to win $32.00

Not confident, but it's about 50/50.
 
I Live bet $4 on amir +150 I thought he won the first lol. Scared money.
 

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Looks like I have time to watch these last few fights before I leave.

Anyone worth tailing in these last 3 fights?

We on the white boy with heavy hands against Martin Nguyen?
 
$10 on Ilya Freymanov +118 = cash

Premier section kept opening and closing the live betting. Oh well.
 
I've never seen Martin Nguyen fight before, but Ilya Freymanov's striking was on point, and he has decent TDD, but I assume Nguyen doesn't have good TD skills.
 
Freymanov just steam rolled him. He was throwing everything to kill. Probably fortunate he got him out of there.
Now he has to pay back his ped dealers with his bonus money
 
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