Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

Love the Bern and yes I think the dems all dropped out at the same time to help Biden get the nod but I think Trump would have beaten Bernie via the electoral college (not with lawsuits and Supreme Court hail mary attempts)

I disagree but that's a different discussion. I think Bernie appeals to people for many of the same reasons Trump does and has a surprising amount of crossover with his voters. I do think Biden was at least a better candidate to win than most of the field, though.

 

[loller90278]

i think scotus rejecting the tx lawsuit means its GG for trump.

now thats done, can we all get behind Yang now!? #yanggang

 

[rev0lver]

i think scotus rejecting the tx lawsuit means its GG for trump.

Yup, they seem to have exhausted all their legal challenges that even had a shred of hope. Only chance left is somehow getting electors to vote against their state's outcome, which is probably more unlikely than the courts overturning anything.

 

[TrueAscension]

Trump gonna sue God for the results

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Trump gonna sue God for the results

There's higher chance of Logan Paul knocking out floyd next year than this clown becoming president again. Needs to give it up already.

 

[longway]

Yeah they're crooked scum, but I'm not gonna accuse them of doing something unrealistic with no solid basis for it. I'm not gonna insinuate that Nancy Pelosi drinks the blood of sacrificed children when she wakes up every morning, and imply she's hiding something if we don't investigate it. Like yeah I hate her but that's probably just something I made up.

I was as big of a Bernie Sanders supporter as you could get during the primaries, and I was obviously very unhappy with the result. But it was what it was and that's just how our democracy works. There was no reason to think they cheated. Manipulated media, constant attacks on the "far left", even possible collusion right before Super Tuesday to consolidate support behind Biden? Sure. But actual fraud in the primary elections? We could develop conspiracy theories about that if we wanted to, but it's just not realistic and it's dangerously antidemocratic to push that idea purely on the basis of not liking the outcome.

They did cheat in 2016 though, and in 2020, obumbum called up all the other candidates and got them to drop out just to stop bernie. And dont forget how cnn and barren colluded in the debates to ambush bernie as a 'mysogynist'.

And the dnc cheated bernie out the win in the first caucus. The creature buttplug even pulled a slimy move by declaring himself the 'winner'.

And helosi held up relief bills just bc an election was coming up. These scum deserve no respect on any level. They have none for you.

Its not how it is supposed to work.

Anyway, looking beyond all this. Having had a chsnce to sit back a bit, i think all this is in part a set up for a 2024 presudential run. I wonder what the odds are that trump will be potus in 2024?

 

[longway]

There's higher chance of Logan Paul knocking out floyd next year than this clown becoming president again. Needs to give it up already.

Great chance he can win against whorris in 2024. I think he is a shoo-in to gain the gop candidacy again.

 

[rev0lver]

They did cheat in 2016 though, and in 2020, obumbum called up all the other candidates and got them to drop out just to stop bernie. And dont forget how cnn and barren colluded in the debates to ambush bernie as a 'mysogynist'.

And the dnc cheated bernie out the win in the first caucus. The creature buttplug even pulled a slimy move by declaring himself the 'winner'.

And helosi held up relief bills just bc an election was coming up. These scum deserve no respect on any level. They have none for you.

Its not how it is supposed to work.

Anyway, looking beyond all this. Having had a chsnce to sit back a bit, i think all this is in part a set up for a 2024 presudential run. I wonder what the odds are that trump will be potus in 2024?

Yeah I agree that all of that is wrong, but none of it is actual cheating or voter fraud. There's a huge jump from one to the other.

I'm still not sure on the 2024 thing. For one, regardless of his future plans, I don't think this is meant to be a setup for it. I think he's just genuinely really bad at accepting defeat, and either wants a long shot at retaining power or to at least convince enough people he didn't lose so he can continue the claim.

Always have to remember that Trump's gonna be Biden-aged in 4 years. He could be fine like Bernie by then but at these ages there's always some doubt. There's all the pending legal issues out there too even though Biden said he's not gonna go after him. But there's also a huge question about the direction of the GOP over the next 4 years, and if this election's going to spark a political realignment or if they'll shift away from Trumpian politics

 

[Roads55]

Betfair have settled!



Amazing comments, Thanks for the monies trump bettors.

 

[Roads55]

agree with a lot of this, I just don't think the disparity is enough to overcome biden's lead, I just think a certain amount of trump's odds are hype, the action on him confirms this to me, there's plenty of big players on biden, but also some on trump which when combined with the casual trump interest makes the line a bit more skewed.

pretty much played out like I expected overall, the polls were obviously BS and skewed to hell but were not wrong enough to overcome biden's lead.

what's everyone's positions atm?

I've tried not to spread too much money about on too many markets, currently i got:

Election winner

Biden +12u
Trump -13u

Winning party

Republicans +1.75u
Democrats -0.8u

Next president to lose popular vote

Yes +4.2u
No -0.2u

Florida

Republicans +2.4u
Democrats -2u
will probably freeroll this on republicans and look to bet in play, or at least half my liability on democrats.

got a few tiny freerolls on various states too and a couple tiny losses.

Edit: Forgot about this too, been scalping since 2017 lol, although won't be graded for a while.

Trump to leave before end of 1st term:

Yes: -0.65u
No: +4u

Final tally for me is +29u including live betting and all the post election day trading, and a bit of btc winnings too, still got action on trump not to leave before the end of his 1st term for +4.5u and about +5u in btc on the ftx market if trump leaves office before february.

 

[longway]

pretty much played out like I expected overall, the polls were obviously BS and skewed to hell but were not wrong enough to overcome biden's lead.



Final tally for me is +29u including live betting and all the post election day trading, and a bit of btc winnings too, still got action on trump not to leave before the end of his 1st term for +4.5u and about +5u in btc on the ftx market if trump leaves office before february.

My main bet was trump to win. Luckliy, my main bet on states was trump to win florida at plus odds. And then on election night i got a hedge in on biden while he was +500 or something, but i got greedy and over confident didnt hedge out fully. Then i saw the writing on the wall and committed to a full hedge while biden was on even money. So overall i got out largely unscathed, but it could have been a blood bath.

Overall i thought my reads were good, but didnt realy capitalise.

 

[longway]

Yeah I agree that all of that is wrong, but none of it is actual cheating or voter fraud. There's a huge jump from one to the other.

I'm still not sure on the 2024 thing. For one, regardless of his future plans, I don't think this is meant to be a setup for it. I think he's just genuinely really bad at accepting defeat, and either wants a long shot at retaining power or to at least convince enough people he didn't lose so he can continue the claim.

Always have to remember that Trump's gonna be Biden-aged in 4 years. He could be fine like Bernie by then but at these ages there's always some doubt. There's all the pending legal issues out there too even though Biden said he's not gonna go after him. But there's also a huge question about the direction of the GOP over the next 4 years, and if this election's going to spark a political realignment or if they'll shift away from Trumpian politics

I think he did believe it intially, as did i. But since they got a look at az ballots, i think it is what it is, biden won.

Now, imo, its about setting up a narrative for the 'resistance'. Much like the russian collusion hs.

It gives him a great back story for a comeback, and will serve to delegitimise the kakala regime.

Kakala and the klown are bound to fuck everything up, so that will help too.

The age thing is a fair point, i think we will have to see in 4 years, but his time in office rejuvenated him, or he is on a great hrt regimen.

In terms of the broader politics, you can see the the kakala regime is re-creating the very same politics that got trump into power in the first place. There is a thirst for populism, right wing and left wing, but outside trump there is no-one to carry the torch for either and win. There is no point making a virtue of playing by the rules while your opponents shit on your face. At some point you just got to win.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

There's higher chance of Logan Paul knocking out floyd next year than this clown becoming president again. Needs to give it up already.

Care to explain your reasoning on why Donald Trump is a clown? Refrain from character assassination. I'd love to know what political choices he made, economic choices etc, that makes you think he's a clown.

Where I'm from, he is the only president to not get us into a new war since Reagan, (despite the Iran bombing a US embassy), lowest black unemployment rate in US history, booming economy and tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs brought back to the US until the Chinese virus hit, strengthened national security via building border walls with Mexico and strengthening US Border Patrol, pulled us out of the TPP and Paris accord (that refused to fine and tax the top 3 polluters in the world but insisted on taxing the US ) but I'd love to hear logical, factual, non-emotional reasons for your opinion.

 

[Roads55]

Care to explain your reasoning on why Donald Trump is a clown? Refrain from character assassination. I'd love to know what political choices he made, economic choices etc, that makes you think he's a clown.

Where I'm from, he is the only president to not get us into a new war since Reagan, (despite the Iran bombing a US embassy), lowest black unemployment rate in US history, booming economy and tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs brought back to the US until the Chinese virus hit, strengthened national security via building border walls with Mexico and strengthening US Border Patrol, pulled us out of the TPP and Paris accord (that refused to fine and tax the top 3 polluters in the world but insisted on taxing the US ) but I'd love to hear logical, factual, non-emotional reasons for your opinion.

he is a 74 year old man who dyes his hair blonde and paints his face fucking orange, and communicates like a child, and your asking why he is a clown! holy shit dude

 

[Oblivian]

Care to explain your reasoning on why Donald Trump is a clown? Refrain from character assassination. I'd love to know what political choices he made, economic choices etc, that makes you think he's a clown.

Where I'm from, he is the only president to not get us into a new war since Reagan, (despite the Iran bombing a US embassy), lowest black unemployment rate in US history, booming economy and tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs brought back to the US until the Chinese virus hit, strengthened national security via building border walls with Mexico and strengthening US Border Patrol, pulled us out of the TPP and Paris accord (that refused to fine and tax the top 3 polluters in the world but insisted on taxing the US ) but I'd love to hear logical, factual, non-emotional reasons for your opinion.

If his political choices, economic choices, and accomplishments are so strong, maybe he didn't win because he is perceived as a clown by many. Let's not act like this is a controversial opinion. Even many of his supporters do not like his personality even if they like his policies.

 

[longway]

Care to explain your reasoning on why Donald Trump is a clown? Refrain from character assassination. I'd love to know what political choices he made, economic choices etc, that makes you think he's a clown.

Where I'm from, he is the only president to not get us into a new war since Reagan, (despite the Iran bombing a US embassy), lowest black unemployment rate in US history, booming economy and tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs brought back to the US until the Chinese virus hit, strengthened national security via building border walls with Mexico and strengthening US Border Patrol, pulled us out of the TPP and Paris accord (that refused to fine and tax the top 3 polluters in the world but insisted on taxing the US ) but I'd love to hear logical, factual, non-emotional reasons for your opinion.

You triggered tds with this post. Its never anything beyond orange man bad bc its not rational and never has been.

Ive seen people meltdown and spiittle flying at the mere mention of his name.

He has been a great potus for usa and the world, and i hope he wins again in 2024.

Cant wait until the kakala regime bans fracking, as that means boom times for me in the offshore oil and gas world. Get ready for $5 gallon gas.

 

[rev0lver]

In terms of the broader politics, you can see the the kakala regime is re-creating the very same politics that got trump into power in the first place. There is a thirst for populism, right wing and left wing, but outside trump there is no-one to carry the torch for either and win. There is no point making a virtue of playing by the rules while your opponents shit on your face. At some point you just got to win.

100% agree with this. It's unfortunate (for my side of things) that Bernie will almost definitely never have a chance again. I don't know who else on the left can pick up that torch. There's really no figureheads for left wing populism beside Bernie or AOC, and I don't think any of the "squad" can overcome the hate against them quite yet. Plus it'll just be a Biden or Kamala incumbency in 4 years, so the left's kinda stuck

 

[rev0lver]

Where I'm from, he is the only president to not get us into a new war since Reagan, (despite the Iran bombing a US embassy), lowest black unemployment rate in US history, booming economy and tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs brought back to the US until the Chinese virus hit, strengthened national security via building border walls with Mexico and strengthening US Border Patrol, pulled us out of the TPP and Paris accord (that refused to fine and tax the top 3 polluters in the world but insisted on taxing the US ) but I'd love to hear logical, factual, non-emotional reasons for your opinion.

Cool I'll do point by point

- nearly got us into major military conflicts with North Korea and Iran, multiple times, for incredibly stupid reasons. Obama didn't get us into new wars either. You can argue he escalated American presence in conflicts, but then Trump did too by ramping up drone strike campaigns and hard-assisting the Saudis with their proxy war in Yemen. and on military policy I can also point out things like him totally screwing over Kurdish allies because the leader of Turkey sucked up to him and asked him to do it. and don't get me started on the Iran nuclear deal he completely screwed up.

- lowest black unemployment by extension of unemployment all-around continuing trends from the previous admin. he did next to nothing for their wages, living situations, education, policing against them, etc. we've even seen hate crimes go up while his admin has worked to roll back civil rights protections and anti-racist training. it's just a statistic he saw and keeps repeating at rallies to make himself look good. only thing i could give him credit for in the black community is increasing funding for HBCU's.

- booming economy mainly for the rich and hardly brought on by him. all he really did was not fuck anything up too hard. wages are still nowhere where they should be. debt was at an all-time high even before covid hit. people still couldn't afford their housing or healthcare. pretty shitty situation for the people in a "booming" economy. only good thing that happened were minimum wage increases instituted by dems and heavily opposed by Trump and his allies. don't be surprised that Trump lost when he constantly touts how good his economy is while a large chunk of the country is still struggling.

- and on the "chinese virus" point, maybe he'd be re-elected if he didn't totally fuck up our response to it. he can't just take all responsibility for the good and none for the bad. crises happen and it's up to our leadership to respond to it. other countries saw their leaders re-elected by overwhelming margins because they either worked well to reduce the disease's spread or gave continuous assistance to the people during lockdowns. we didn't, and with our leadership we lead the world in cases+deaths with a struggling economy. Good job Trump.

- lol the like 20 miles of border wall? nice. those child separation policies and threatening DACA on every turn really helped our national security too.

- pulling out of the Paris accord was absolutely not a good thing. and Trump has been disastrous on environmental policy, from just genuinely not understanding climate change, to opposing any effort to give us cleaner air/water/etc (then astoundingly taking credit when those things happen anyway), to threatening to defund a state over his ignorance of how wildfires happen.

he is a clown. he's either laughed at or manipulated by other world leaders. he constantly lies or makes shit up to make himself look good, while his followers buy it without question and call any opposing info fake news. he cries when reporters ask him tough questions or even challenge him. he takes credit for anything good that happens while shifting blame for anything bad. virtually every former associate or cabinet official has come out to call him a hotheaded moron. he constantly demonstrates a basic lack of understanding about science, law, or even economics. and he's currently throwing daily hissy fits about losing an election instead of accepting defeat and assisting a transition to help a country he's supposed to lead.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

he is a 74 year old man who dyes his hair blonde and paints his face fucking orange, and communicates like a child, and your asking why he is a clown! holy shit dude

I asked for a mature, logical, coherent answer and you give me this.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Cool I'll do point by point

- nearly got us into major military conflicts with North Korea and Iran, multiple times, for incredibly stupid reasons. Obama didn't get us into new wars either. You can argue he escalated American presence in conflicts, but then Trump did too by ramping up drone strike campaigns and hard-assisting the Saudis with their proxy war in Yemen. and on military policy I can also point out things like him totally screwing over Kurdish allies because the leader of Turkey sucked up to him and asked him to do it. and don't get me started on the Iran nuclear deal he completely screwed up.

- lowest black unemployment by extension of unemployment all-around continuing trends from the previous admin. he did next to nothing for their wages, living situations, education, policing against them, etc. we've even seen hate crimes go up while his admin has worked to roll back civil rights protections and anti-racist training. it's just a statistic he saw and keeps repeating at rallies to make himself look good. only thing i could give him credit for in the black community is increasing funding for HBCU's.

- booming economy mainly for the rich and hardly brought on by him. all he really did was not fuck anything up too hard. wages are still nowhere where they should be. debt was at an all-time high even before covid hit. people still couldn't afford their housing or healthcare. pretty shitty situation for the people in a "booming" economy. only good thing that happened were minimum wage increases instituted by dems and heavily opposed by Trump and his allies. don't be surprised that Trump lost when he constantly touts how good his economy is while a large chunk of the country is still struggling.

- and on the "chinese virus" point, maybe he'd be re-elected if he didn't totally fuck up our response to it. he can't just take all responsibility for the good and none for the bad. crises happen and it's up to our leadership to respond to it. other countries saw their leaders re-elected by overwhelming margins because they either worked well to reduce the disease's spread or gave continuous assistance to the people during lockdowns. we didn't, and with our leadership we lead the world in cases+deaths with a struggling economy. Good job Trump.

- lol the like 20 miles of border wall? nice. those child separation policies and threatening DACA on every turn really helped our national security too.

- pulling out of the Paris accord was absolutely not a good thing. and Trump has been disastrous on environmental policy, from just genuinely not understanding climate change, to opposing any effort to give us cleaner air/water/etc (then astoundingly taking credit when those things happen anyway), to threatening to defund a state over his ignorance of how wildfires happen.

he is a clown. he's either laughed at or manipulated by other world leaders. he constantly lies or makes shit up to make himself look good, while his followers buy it without question and call any opposing info fake news. he cries when reporters ask him tough questions or even challenge him. he takes credit for anything good that happens while shifting blame for anything bad. virtually every former associate or cabinet official has come out to call him a hotheaded moron. he constantly demonstrates a basic lack of understanding about science, law, or even economics. and he's currently throwing daily hissy fits about losing an election instead of accepting defeat and assisting a transition to help a country he's supposed to lead.

I stopped reading after you said Obama didn't get us into any new wars. That's the funniest shit I've ever heard. Obama killed a 16 year old American citizen via drone strike. https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30...emen-trump-just-killed-his-8-year-old-sister/

Obama is responsible destabilizing Lybia, (he killed Gadaffi, the leader of a country, how you claim that isn't a war type maneuver requires mental gymnastics that only the mentally challenged possess) as well as initiating that largest drone strike campaign in US history. But sure, Obama didn't start any "wars". Obama also killed a 16 year old US CITIZEN while he was visiting family in the ME.

Obama also locked kids in cages at the Mexican border. Trump uses the same cages.