1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

Political Betting Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by GearSolidMetal, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    You can get +400 or better on trump being 2024 republican nominee. I think plenty of value on that. He clearly wants to and will win nomination if he runs for it. Only uncertainties are health issues or something.

    A little surprising as the chance of senate convicting him are miniscule.

    I think there might be narrowing after the senate trial that might make it worth. Smarkets trading look v thin though.
     
  2. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,140
    Likes Received:
    637
    Location:
    Merica
    I know a lot of Republicans who are now against Trump after the riot. Even if he is healthy, I definitely don't think he's a shoe in for nominee as so much can happen. I'd never want to bet that this early.
     
  3. pyromania Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2012
    Messages:
    462
    Likes Received:
    23
    Location:
    Sherdog forums
    4 years is a long time. Partisanship aside I don't think +400 is good odds given the possibility of criminal indictments, lawsuits, age, and the fact that he lost one election already. Hell, you got that QAnon shaman guy raring to testify against Trump at the impeachment hearing, which is not a good sign if you use that as an example of how fickle his hardcore base can be.
     
    Black Paladin and Roads55 like this.
  4. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    ^ & ^^ The impeachment is nothing but a badge of honour. He will weave into his case for re-election, and make show of the trial. You guys have been hearing its the end for him for 5 years, when will you learn? Covid beat him though.

    I agree its early, i wont leave my money in there long, but I can see better now why i am getting +400 or better on what i think is a 50/50 coin flip at most. Im just thinking the line will inevitably narrow as it sinks in that he is not going anywhere soon. Only external factors will stop him.
     
  5. rev0lver Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2013
    Messages:
    1,511
    Likes Received:
    287
    Yeah I gotta agree with this. You can't underestimate the possibilities of his potential legal problems in the years to come. He has a target on his back whether or not Biden wants to pursue him. And I'm betting a LOT more dirty laundry from his admin will come out over the next few years, where he no longer has the platform to just yell "fake news" at it. Trump does still have a base, but he's left a horrid taste in even a lot of Republicans' mouths, and some of the hardcore qanon side has finally been disillusioned now that the theories never came to reality.

    Also can't downplay the age thing. He'll be nearly 80 years old by the time he can run again. He doesn't have the healthiest lifestyle and there's no telling how his physical/mental state will be by that time.

    I wouldn't touch his line at +400. And I think if the party doesn't totally split, the Republicans will go in a different direction from Trumpian politics and start pushing the Nikki Haley types.
     
  6. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    ^ the age/health is more of a factor than rest. Given he just wants 1 term, biden and bernie hv made that argument for him.

    They have been throwing legal shit at him for years, maybe finally they will be able to fit him up, but i would not bet on it,.

    The rest is overblown, haley has as much chance as jeb against him. The gop base has a taste for firebrand populism, its there for the taking of he wants it.

    There will only be a bad taste for base if he quits, if he keeps fighting all wil be forgiven.

    Speaking of poor health and age, check out close ups of byeden, esp with black widow lurking in the background. Id be surprised if he lasts 2 years.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2021
  7. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    42,140
    Likes Received:
    637
    Location:
    Merica
    I really can't fathom capping Trump at 50/50 this far out. There has to be a ton of speculation of what is going to happen 4 years out, but he's lost some support from Republicans without a doubt. I'm in a very Republican area and many of the over 60 crowd here that are hardcore Republicans are done with him. Now they could head back his way if the next 3 years are so horrible, but it's also pretty likely another candidate will emerge if that's the case anyways. Biden's age isn't necessarily going to help Trump's case either. If Biden doesn't last due to his age, it will be a wake up call to many that we shouldn't have geriatrics in office.
     
    Roads55 likes this.
  8. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    Tbh, i already assume he is running again. His claim dnc cheated, protest 6 jan, fund raising, wanting to primary his haters in the gop all are signs he is in it for the long haul. Final confirmation will come when, or (as a nod to your sceptism) if he starts his rallies again. If he doesnt start by this summer, then it will be a sign i could be wrong.

    If you ignore fake polls, you can see his approval ratings hardly budged from november onward.

    Imo, he lost bc over 60s did not turn out for him as normal due to covid, so i can imagine you seeing a real undercurrent there.

    Yes, another populist could emerge from somewhere, there is a chance, but I toss all that kind of stuff into various random events happening to stop him from getting nomination, and just call it a coin flip.

    Afaics, as long as nothing changes he is running, and has already making moves to that end. If he runs the nomination is his, the enthusiasm for him in the last primary was unpresidented, and that dynamic has not gone away.
     
    TeamVamos likes this.
  9. loller90278 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2008
    Messages:
    1,619
    Likes Received:
    847
    Location:
    UCSD
    Kamala (D) vs Nikki Hailey (R) vs Trump (P) in 2024 is my guess
     
  10. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    ^ more likely Trump will be gop nominee and some grifters will run as a spoiler to trump.
     
  11. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    Still not enough to bet, esp with the long-awaited crypto bull run underway.

    btw - nbt could be nfts. I will be loading up a bag. Chamath Palihapitiaya is going to do an elon on hyping them soon. Nothing to do with politics, just letting you guys know, as I know some of you are into crypto.

    Anyway, seeing that Cuomo the old folk killer is being thrown under the bus after being protected for quite some time, and the creepy way VP Horiss is always brought up in issues concerning the WH, I think we will see her installed sooner rather than later.

    I think of about the 2 year mark will mark the transition from Byeden to Horiss.
     
    Roads55 likes this.
  12. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,346
    Likes Received:
    75
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2021
    longway likes this.
  13. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,346
    Likes Received:
    75
    I'll look into it thanks. what do you mean it could be nfts exactly?

    crypto has been nuts this week,get some solana, serum and raydium if there's a good dip, they perform very well this cycle, already up a lot though.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2021
  14. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    Managed to pick up solana before it pumped, I'm liking that one a lot. I will check the others.

    NFT = non fungible token. Token will represent a unique digital asset that will have a real work value and be tradable among collectors and game players.

    Look at FLOW token

    Another good one is NBA top shots - could be huge

    Decentraland is another interesting project, with the current dump, there may be a buying op there.

    Other stuff is Ejin cloin, and NFTX (kind of like an index fund of NFTs)

    You can go to Opensea.io and look at various types of NFTs and get a feel.
     
  15. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
  16. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,346
    Likes Received:
    75
    haha nice, been telling ppl to buy solana for a few months, that shit is going to $20 next, super bullish on it atm, serum is a de-fi exchange that will be built on top of it and ray will be a automated market maker than provides liquidity by creating a central orderbook on the exchange rather than segmented liquidity pools on other platforms, they all complement each other and have huge hype behind them.
    ye i know what nft's are, was just wondering how it related to nbt, i guess you mean nft's can be offered on the platform for sale. I'm staying away from nft's for now at least while the de-fi space is going parabolic, I just don't see most of it having longevity, the concept of tokenized digital art seems dumb to me, I think there is a lot of opportunity in selling physical art though.
    I'm pretty bearish on tokens that are erc20 atm, ETH usability is terrible atm with the state of the fees, newer tech is here and ETH 2.0 is very late already and still at least a couple years away. i see that flow token was made by the same ppl who made cryptokitties.. the app that singlehandedly brought the ETH network to a screeching halt in the bull run of 2017 lmao. cryptokitties was pretty ridiculous, some of those animated cats were selling for crazy amounts back then but it inevitably crashed.
    decentraland looks interesting but not sure it will take off that much, some of that stuff looks crazy overpriced. however the link between crypto and selling items/skins in video games is an obvious one to explore. I remember 1st-blood i think it was from a few years ago that aimed to do something similar iirc, no idea what became of it though.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
  17. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    Sorry, nbt = next big thing.

    I don't disagree with a lot of what you say. I think the NBA top shots stuff is a slam dunk though. Next drop 12pm pst Feb 26. I imagine you have to get lucky to get one of the packs, but its free money if you do. UFC should get into this too.

    Setting up my trades after the correction, hope I don't get rekt. I think this correction is not the end of the bull run.
     
  18. t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,120
    Likes Received:
    93
    It looks like they're already working on it: https://ufc.onflow.org/
     
    longway likes this.
  19. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,346
    Likes Received:
    75
    ok, thought you meant nbt coin lol: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/voice-token , it just re-branded to voice apparently. but ye nft's are getting a lot of attention atm, looks as if its hard to even get any of those packs as they sell out instantly. could be good to flip if you get some though, fuck buying and holding them long term though.
     
    longway likes this.
  20. longway Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,825
    Likes Received:
    499
    Location:
    Thailand
    There were about 10,000 packs available, 170,000 waiting. Randomly assigned queue number 155,000 lol. Its like getting a winning lottery ticket.

    Enjin pumping 200%.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.